Cincinnati Bengals 2023 Betting Preview

The Bengals last year followed up their surprising Super Bowl LVI appearance with a 12-4 record, second straight division title and deep playoff run, ultimately losing to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship on a last-second field goal. With a top-eight offense and defense in scoring, the Bengals proved their unexpected 2021-22 postseason performance was no fluke. This year, the Bengals once again have their sights set on the Super Bowl.

In this 2023 Bengals preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Bengals preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

Cincinnati Bengals 2023 Offseason Odds

Market	Consensus Odds	Rank	Implied Probability
Win Total	Consensus Odds	Rank	Implied Probability	Team	Win Total	Win Tot Rk	Pts Scored	Scored Rk	Pts Allowed	Allowed Rk	Team	Implied Opp Pts Allowed	Impl Rk	Proj Opp Pts Allowed	Proj Rk	Team	Opp Win Tot	Opp Win Rk	Proj Opp Win Tot	Proj Opp Rk	Carson Palmer	Andy Dalton	Joe Burrow	Team	Pts Scored	Scored Rk	Pts Allowed	Allowed Rk	Total DVOA	DVOA Rk	Team	Off EPA	EPA Rk	Off SR	SR Rk	Off DVOA	DVOA Rk	Team	Def EPA	EPA Rk	Def SR	SR Rk	Def DVOA	DVOA Rk	Team	Off	QB	RB	WR/TE	OL	Team	Def	DL	LB	Sec	Joe Burrow	Trevor Siemian	Jake Browning	Brandon Allen	Ja’Marr Chas	Player	Comp	PaAtt	PaYd	PaTD	INT	RuAtt	RuYd	RuTD	Joe Burrow	Joe Mixon	Chase Brown	Trayveon Williams	Chris Evans	Samaje Perine	Player	RuAtt	RuYd	RuTD	Tar	Rec	ReYd	ReTD	Joe Mixon	Chase Brown	Trayveon Williams	Ja'Marr Chase	Tee Higgins	Tyler Boyd	Trenton Irwin	Charlie Jones	Andrei Iosivas	Irv Smith	Drew Sample	Devin Asiasi	Trent Taylor	Stanley Morgan	Tanner Hudson	Mike Thomas	Hayden Hurst	Mitchell Wilcox	Player	Tar	Rec	ReYd	ReTD	RuAtt	RuYd	RuTD	Ja'Marr Chase	Tee Higgins	Tyler Boyd	Trenton Irwin	Irv Smith

Projections as of June 12.

Offensive Line

Starters: LT Orlando Brown, LG Cordell Volson, C Ted Karras, RG Alex Cappa, RT Jonah Williams
Backups: OT La’El Collins, G/T Jackson Carman, G/T Cody Ford, C/G Trey Hill
Borderline: T/G Hakeem Adeniji, G Max Scharping
Unit Ranking: No. 16

Brown is a four-time Pro Bowler who started out at right tackle before successfully anchoring the blindside for QBs Lamar Jackson (2020 Ravens) and Patrick Mahomes (2021-22 Chiefs). Acquired via free agency this offseason, Brown has never had a PFF pass-blocking grade below 74.4.

Volson had a subpar rookie season in 2022, allowing 43 pressures across 19 starts. He could lose his job with a poor camp. Karras joined the Bengals last year and stabilized the pivot with a 76.1 PFF pass-blocking grade. A 2016 sixth-rounder for the Patriots, he has been a full-time starter for the past four seasons. Like Karras, Cappa signed with the Bengals last offseason. A four-year starter who previously protected QB Tom Brady for the Buccaneers, Cappa has improved steadily throughout his career.

Williams was a unanimous All-American first-rounder for the Bengals in 2019, and after missing his rookie year he was the team’s starting LT for the 2020-22 campaigns — but Brown’s arrival now pushes Williams to RT. After initially requesting a trade, he has accepted his new position and seems motivated to perform and demonstrate his versatility in a contract year.

Collins has been a solid starter (first at LG, then RT) ever since entering the league in 2015, and he joined the Bengals last year after seven seasons with the Cowboys to be Burrow’s “new bodyguard” — but he had a career-worst 44.2 PFF pass-blocking grade in 2022, and the addition of Brown is likely to make Collins a backup, especially since he suffered ACL and MCL tears in Week 16 and might not be ready to open the year.

Carman is a 2021 second-rounder who made six poor spot starts at RG and LG as a rookie — but last year he stepped up in a big way with two cromulent starts in the playoffs at LT after Williams was lost to injury. He has potential and could challenge Volson for his spot. Ford has long underperformed expectations as a 2019 second-rounder for the Bills, but he has 32 starts to his name and experience at both guard spots and RT. Hill has been the No. 2 C for the Bengals since his 2021 rookie season. He’s an average backup with guard versatility.

Adeniji has theoretical outside/inside versatility with multiple starts at LT, RT and RG, but the 2020 sixth-rounder has never had better than a 53.6 PFF pass-blocking grade and was miserable at RT last year after Collins went down. He could make the roster if Collins is out to start the year, but I don’t think he deserves it. Scharping is a 2019 second-round disappointment with lots of starting experience — just like Ford — but unlike Ford, he offers no tackle flexibility. He was poor in his three playoff starts last year filling in for Cappa at RG.

Defensive Line

EDGE Starters: Sam Hubbard, Trey Hendrickson
EDGE Backups: Myles Murphy, Cameron Sample, Joseph Ossai, Tarell Basham
DT Starters: B.J. Hill, D.J. Reader
DT Backups: Zachary Carter, Josh Tupou, Jay Tufele
Unit Ranking: No. 15

Hubbard is a hometown second-contract veteran with four seasons as a slightly above-average starter. Always strong in run defense, he has improved as a pass rusher with 22 sacks over the past years (including playoffs). Hendrickson is the counterbalance to Hubbard: Nearly elite as a pass rusher (86.9 and 87.7 PFF grades) since joining the Bengals two years ago — but bad against the run. Given the importance of pressure off the edge, Hendrickson has made the Pro Bowl in each of the past seasons.

Murphy is a first-round rookie with elite recruitment pedigree (five stars) and athleticism (4.52-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-5 and 268 pounds). He’ll contribute immediately as a rotational rusher. Sample is a 2021 fourth-rounder who improved in his second season but still has just six career snaps (including playoffs). Ossai is a 2021 third-rounder who missed his rookie year to injury but was an average depth rusher though a liability against the run. Basham is a career nomad joining the Bengals with respectable PFF grades across the board as a depth defender.

Hill is a solidly above-average second-contract run defender and pass-rusher whom the Bengals acquired via trade two years ago. Reader is a near-elite interior presence who joined the team in 2020 after four years with the Texans. He is dominant in no one phase, but he can line up at NT with his size (6-foot-3 and 347 pounds) and is consistently strong against the run and pushing the pocket.

Carter was the team’s No. 3 DT last year as a third-round rookie. He got blown up frequently in run defense, but he did improve throughout the season. Topou is a B-gap DT in an A gap’s body (6-foot-3 and 340 pounds). He played well against the run in 2018-19 but opted out of the 2020 season and has offered little since returning in 2021. Tufele was cut by the Jaguars after his rookie campaign, but he had an acceptable sophomore season last year with the Bengals, especially as a situational pass rusher (four pressures on 55 snaps).

Off-ball Linebackers

Starters: Logan Wilson, Germaine Pratt
Backups: Akeem Davis-Gaither, Markus Bailey
Borderline: Joe Bachie
Unit Ranking: No. 12

Wilson is a contract-year third-rounder who has improved in run defense, coverage, and tackling every year. Pratt — like Wilson — has improved throughout his career. Last year he had a top-notch 87.2 PFF coverage grade, and this offseason the Bengals gave him a three-year extension. Davis-Gaither is an average-ish defender, but the 2020 fourth-rounder knows the system well enough and can be counted on to contribute 200-plus snaps each year. Bailey has underperformed defensively whenever given sustained playing time, but he’s a strong special teamer, as is Bachie, who suited up more often than not last year. But if the Bengals go with only four LBs, the fourth-year undrafted Bachie will be an easy cut.

Secondary

CB Starters: Chidobe Awuzie, Cam Taylor-Britt, Mike Hilton
CB Backups: D.J. Turner, Sidney Jones, CB Jalen Davis
S Starters: Daxton Hill, Nick Scott
S Backups: Jordan Battle, Michael Thomas, Tycen Anderson
Borderline: CB D.J. Ivey
Notable Turnover: CBs Eli Apple (free agent) & Tre Flowers (Falcons), SS Vonn Bell (Panthers), FS Jessie Bates (Falcons)
Unit Ranking: No. 14

Awuzie isn’t an elite No. 1 corner, but he has been a solid outside defender throughout his career, starting with his 2017 rookie season for the Cowboys. Blessed with good size (6-foot-0 and 202 pounds) and athleticism (4.43-second 40-yard dash), he has impressed with just 5.0 yards per target allowed in his two years with the Bengals (including playoffs) — but he’s coming off a Week 8 ACL tear and might not be ready to open the year.

Taylor-Britt is a 2022 second-rounder who allowed a completion rate of only 54.7% last year and performed especially well in the playoffs (13 targets, 33 yards). He’ll compete with Turner for a starting spot, but his rookie play gives him the edge.

Hilton is a dependable slot man who defected from the rival Steelers two years ago. Turner is a second-round rookie with undesirable size (5-foot-11 and 178 pounds) but blazing speed (4.26-second 40-yard dash) and the ability to line up across the formation. He’s unlikely to be worse than the exiled Apple.

Jones is a 27-year-old perimeter journeyman with a boom/bust profile but 27 starts on his ledger. Davis is a veteran backup slot defender who has been a core Bengals special teamer for two years — but he’ll need to beat out rookie seventh-rounder Ivey.

Hill is a 2022 first-rounder who played far behind starters Bell and Bates last year. Drafted in anticipation of their departure this offseason and capable of playing in the slot, in the box and deep downfield, Hill now has the opportunity to demonstrate his talent — but he is green. Scott had a career-high 984 snaps last year for the Rams but a career-worst 43.4 PFF coverage grade in his first campaign as a starter. The Bengals are outright gambling that the fifth-year offseason acquisition will bounce back to average as a replacement for Bates at FS, and he could indirectly face competition from third-round rookie Battle, a three-year starter at Alabama with a nose for the ball (252 tackles, six interceptions).

If Battle impresses in camp, he could start at SS and enable Hill to play at FS, pushing Scott to the bench. Thomas has played only 117 snaps in two years with the Bengals, but he enters his 12th season with 34 starts and a wealth of experience. In the absence of Bell and Bates, he will need to be a mentor for the young players, such as Anderson, a 2022 fifth-rounder who was on IR as a rookie.

Specialists

Kicker: Evan McPherson
Punter: Brad Robbins
Holder: Brad Robbins
Long Snapper: Cal Adomitis
Kick Returner: Charlie Jones
Punt Returner: Charlie Jones
Borderline: P/H Drue Chrisman, PR Trent Taylor

McPherson is a good 87.7% on all field goal attempts across his two year career — and an exceptional 17-of-19 on kicks of 50-plus yards. In big moments, he delivers. Robbins is a sixth-round rookie with a real chance to compete against and beat the incumbent Chrisman: If the Bengals were satisfied with Chrisman, they wouldn’t have drafted a punter.

Adomitis joined the team last year as an undrafted rookie replacement for longtime LS Clark Harris, earning a 70.4% PFF special teams grade. Jones was a strong college returner (45-1,002-1 on kicks, 77-622-1 on punts) who could supplant No. 3 RB Trayveon Williams as KR and push Taylor off the roster as PR.

Bengals schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Bengals’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

Strength of Schedule: No. 18
Home Division: AFC North
Opposing Division: AFC South, NFC West
Key Stretch: Weeks 9-16
Opponents: at CIN, vs. DEN, vs. NYJ, at PHI, BYE, at KC, vs. DAL, at LAC

The Bengals — despite their recent postseason success — have a moderate schedule based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents, thanks primarily to soft-ish matchups against the AFC South and NFC West. On top of that, they’re one of just four teams with no three-of-four away stretches, and their Week 7 bye is nicely situated toward the middle of the season. But they have a relatively tough slate of games right after the bye.

In Week 8, they travel to San Francisco to play the 49ers, and then they return home to host the Bills on Sunday Night Football. In Week 10, they have their one “gimme” in this stretch — a potential trap game at home against the Texans — after which they have back-to-back divisional matchups on the road against the Ravens on Thursday Night Football and at home against the Steelers. Then they close out this six-game stint on the road against the Jaguars on Monday Night Football.

Five of those games the Bengals could lose without causing a shock, and if they end up on the wrong side of randomness they could legitimately go 1-5 right out of the bye. If the Bengals are to win the No. 1 seed in the AFC, they will need to hold serve at the very least in Weeks 8-13.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Bengals.

Taylor’s vanilla offensive scheme starts to taste tasteless.
Anarumo’s no-name defense hurts from its lack of star power.
Burrow clashes with Taylor about the scheme and struggles to get into a rhythm for multi-series stretches.
Mixon misses time because of legal issues, and no one steps up to carry the load.
Chase grows frustrated by the defensive attention he receives, and Higgins becomes increasingly annoyed with Burrow, who too often forces the ball to Chase in an attempt to placate his No. 1 option.
Smith does absolutely nothing of note.
Brown struggles in the new offense, Volson continues to be a protection liability and Williams adapts slowly to life on the right side.
Hubbard, Hendrickson, Hill and Reader all play just a little bit worse.
Wilson and Pratt have a minimal impact in games because LBs don’t matter.
Awuzie misses the first half of the year, and Taylor-Britt and Turner are frequently exposed in coverage.
Hill and Scott prove to be poor replacements for Bell and Bates.
McPherson suddenly regresses to average from 50-plus yards.
Bengals sneak into the playoffs as a non-division winner, but they get blown out by the Bills in Buffalo on Super Wild Card Weekend.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Bengals.

Taylor continues to evolve as an offensive schemer and play-caller.
Anarumo proves that he doesn’t need stars on defense.
Burrow leads the league in passing yardage.
Mixon averages 100 scrimmage yards and one touchdown per game.
Chase and Higgins both have 1,000 yards receiving for the third year in a row.
Smith has a breakout season and establishes himself as Burrow’s favorite red zone weapon.
Brown and Williams both have Pro Bowl campaigns at tackle, and Volson loses his LG job in camp to Carman, who plays like a mauler.
Hubbard, Hendrickson, Hill and Reader all play a little bit better than they did last year.
Wilson and Pratt take some pressure off their safeties by providing exceptional coverage in the middle of the field.
Awuzie returns to action in Week 1, and Taylor-Britt and Turner play like seasoned veterans.
Hill quickly morphs into an across-the-field playmaker, and Scott enjoys positive regression to adequate.
McPherson stays in God Mode.
Bengals earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC and steamroll their way to a Super Bowl victory as Burrow channels the spirit of the 2019 LSU machine.

In-season betting angles

I view the Bengals as a moderate “bet on” team that will likely offer the most advantage on the road based on the following trends.

Burrow on Road: 18-8 ATS (33.1% ROI)
Burrow on Road: 14-11-1 ML (19.1% ROI)

He has also done well as an underdog.

Burrow as Underdog: 16-8 ATS (27.8% ROI)
Burrow as Underdog: 10-13-1 ML (20.5% ROI)

While Burrow has been pedestrian against AFC North teams (9-7 ATS, 8-8 ML), he has trounced non-divisional opponents.

Burrow Outside Division: 23-10 ATS (33.9% ROI)
Burrow Outside Division: 21-11-1 ML (31.5% ROI)

An ice-veined assassin, Burrow will especially have my attention in Weeks 14-18, when the Bengals play five consecutive outdoor games that all have the potential for cold weather.

Burrow in Temperature No Higher Than 35 Degrees: 6-2 ATS (44.5% ROI)
Burrow in Temperature No Higher Than 35 Degrees: 7-1 ML (75.2% ROI)

At no point in the year am I actively looking to bet against the Bengals as of now.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason betting market to exploit

We currently have a synthetic low-hold market on whether the Bengals make the playoffs.

To Make Playoffs: -285, DraftKings
To Miss Playoffs: +280, BetMGM

But I don’t want to bet into any of the team futures markets this far out from the season, so instead I’ll look at the individual season-long yardage markets.

Tee Higgins Under 7.5 Touchdowns Receiving (-120, BetMGM)

The line for Higgins’ touchdown prop is 6.5 (-140 to the under) at Caesars, and the 7.5 at DraftKings is -130 to the under, so we’re getting the best of the market at BetMGM.

Additionally, I have him projected for 6.6 touchdowns, so there’s an exploitable delta between the market and my expectations.

At -120, there’s a 54.6% implied probability that Higgins hits the under, but I think the real odds are greater: In three seasons he has had only 6-7 touchdowns despite getting 100-plus targets each year.

I have Higgins projected for a career-high 120.2 targets, but even so eight touchdowns will be a tough number to hit, given the significant competition for red-zone usage he has in Mixon, Chase, Boyd and now even Smith.

Even if Higgins has a great season — like 1,200 yards — he could still conceivably have only seven touchdowns based on where he’s targeted, and if the Bengals offense markedly regresses then eight touchdowns will be extremely unlikely.

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