Cincinnati Bengals 2023 Betting Preview

The Bengals last year followed up their surprising Super Bowl LVI appearance with a 12-4 record, second straight division title and deep playoff run, ultimately losing to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship on a last-second field goal. With a top-eight offense and defense in scoring, the Bengals proved their unexpected 2021-22 postseason performance was no fluke. This year, the Bengals once again have their sights set on the Super Bowl.

In this 2023 Bengals preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Bengals preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

Cincinnati Bengals 2023 Offseason Odds

Odds as of June 10. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of June 10. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

2023 Cincinnati Bengals team projections

2023 strength of schedule

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of June 10.

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of June 10.

Cincinnati Bengals general manager and head coach

• Director of Player Personnel: Duke Tobin
• Head Coach: Zac Taylor
• Team Power Rating: +4.75
• Team Power Ranking: No. 3
• Coach Ranking: No. 13

Tobin joined the Bengals in 1999 and was named director of player personnel in 2002. In that role, he has served as the team’s de facto GM for 21 years. The Bengals are very much a family-owned and -operated business. Mike Brown’s father (Paul) founded the team and passed it on to his sons. As principal owner, Mike is president of the Bengals. His daughter, Katie Blackburn, is the Executive VP. Her husband, Troy, is VP. His son, Paul, is VP of player personnel. 

Given the team’s “small business” feel, Tobin — the organization’s highest-ranking non-family employee — has had to overcome challenges that many of his peers don’t face. The frugality of the Brown family is a known issue. Even so, Tobin has artfully guided the team: After his first year on the job, he hired HC Marvin Lewis and drafted QB Carson Palmer, and since then the team has had only one other coach (Taylor) and has avoided the QB purgatory that many teams face by seamlessly transitioning from Palmer to Andy Dalton in 2011 and from Dalton to Joe Burrow in 2020. He’s not technically a GM — but Tobin does the job of a GM well.  

Taylor joined the Bengals in 2019 as the successor to Lewis, who went 131-122-3 across his 16-year tenure and immediately stabilized a team that had managed just three winning campaigns in the previous two decades — but Lewis ignominiously disappointed in the playoffs with his 0-7 record. Taylor is essentially the anti-Lewis HC: He went 2-14 and 4-11-1 in his first two seasons, and still has an overall losing record in the regular season — but he also has already been to two AFC Championships and one Super Bowl. That’s impressive. 

Taylor’s scheme is nothing special: It’s basically a collection of different ideas he has gathered along the way while working for HC Joe Philbin and OCs Mike Sherman and Bill Lazor with the 2012-15 Dolphins (as assistant QBs coach, then QBs coach) and HC Sean McVay and OC Matt LaFleur with the 2017-18 Rams (as assistant WRs coach, then QBs coach). And his 4-19 record without QB Joe Burrow is concerning. 

But last year the Bengals were No. 1 in early-down pass frequency with a blistering 65.6% mark (20-80% win probability, per RBs Don’t Matter), so at least Taylor is game-planning and playcalling to the strengths of his roster. Like his predecessor, he’s an above-average coach he seems to suit his organization.

Zac Taylor coaching record

• Years: 4
• Playoffs: 2
• Division Titles: 2
• Super Bowls: 1
• Championships: 0
• Win Total Record: 2-2
• Avg. Win Total Over/Underperformance: +0.125
• Regular Season: 28-36-1 (.438)
• Playoff Record: 5-2 (.714)
• Against the Spread: 42-30 (12.0% ROI)
• Moneyline: 33-38-1 (1.5% ROI)
• Over/Under: 31-40-1 (7.9% ROI, Under)

ATS, ML, and O/U data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

2022 Bengals team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

2022 Bengals offensive statistics

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

2022 Bengals defensive statistics

Regular season only.

2023 Cincinnati Bengals offense

• Offensive Coordinator: Brian Callahan
• Offensive Playcaller: Zac Taylor 
• QBs Coach: Dan Pitcher
• RBs Coach: Justin Hill
• WRs Coach: Troy Walters
• TEs Coach: James Casey
• OL Coach/Run Game Coordinator: Frank Pollack
• Unit Ranking: No. 4

Callahan got his NFL start with the Broncos in 2010 and worked his way up the ranks (coaching assistant, offensive quality control, offensive assistant) before working as QBs coach with the Lions (2016-17) and Raiders (2018). With the Bengals since 2019, Callahan handles the daily operations of the offense while Taylor calls plays. For 2023, Callahan returns the entirety of his offensive staff.

Pitcher has been with the Bengals since 2016. He started as an offensive assistant, advanced to assistant QBs coach in 2019 and then transitioned to QBs coach in 2020 when predecessor Alex Van Pelt joined the Browns as their OC. Hill joined the Bengals as the RBs coach in 2021 after working for six years as the RBs coach in the college game at Tulsa, where he guided unmemorable RB D’Angelo Brewer to multiple 1,400-yard seasons. 

Walters was a journeyman collegiate WRs coach who coordinated the undefeated 13-0 Central Florida offense in 2017 before eventually making the NFL leap to the Bengals as an assistant in 2020, after which he was promoted to WRs coach in 2021. On his watch, the Bengals have assembled the league’s best WR room. 

Casey was a brainy high-school QB who pitched in the minors for three years before retiring from baseball, enrolling at Rice, transitioning to TE and putting up a transcendent 111-1,329-13 receiving, 57-241-6 rushing campaign in just his second season, after which he entered the NFL, where he played for seven years. He has been a TEs coach since 2017, first with his hometown Texans and then with the Bengals (since 2019). 

Pollack is a former NFL offensive lineman who has coached OLs in the NFL since 2007, including a 2013-17 stint with the Cowboys, who had maybe the league’s most dominant line. Pollack joined the Bengals in 2018 (the year before Taylor), left for the Jets in 2019, and then returned to the team in 2021 for his current role.

2023 Bengals offensive unit rankings

2023 Cincinnati Bengals defense

• Defensive Coordinator: Lou Anarumo
• Senior Defensive Assistant: Mark Duffner
• DL Coach: Marion Hobby
• LBs Coach: James Bettcher
• Secondary/CBs Coach: Charles Burks
• Secondary/Safeties Coach: Robert Livingston
• Unit Ranking: No. 11

Anarumo — or “Big Lou” as he’s called by people who can’t pronounce his last name — has been coaching defenses (with a focus on DBs) since 1990, starting in the college ranks and then transitioning to the NFL in 2012 with the Dolphins, where he worked as the DBs coach for HCs Joe Philbin and Adam Gase. After a one-year gig with the Giants, he was hired by Taylor in 2019 as coordinator. 

Under Anarumo, the Bengals defense has improved in yards and points allowed each year, and he has distinguished himself as an astute game planner, especially against elite QBs. Duffner played in college under Marv Levy and Bobby Ross and first coached in college under Woody Hayes — so he has been around for a while. After head coaching at Holy Cross and Maryland in the 1980s and 1990s, he jumped to the NFL with the Bengals in 1997 as the LBs coach and added DC to his job description for the 2001-02 seasons before Lewis joined the team in 2003 and fired him. 

Duffner worked with Anarumo on the 2014-15 Dolphins as the LBs coach, and when Anarumo joined the Bengals in 2019 he brought Duffner back to Cincinnati as his consigliere. For 2023, Anarumo returns the entirety of his defensive staff.

Hobby was a longtime collegiate DLs coach who co-coordinated the championship-winning 2016 Clemson defense and then leveraged that into a job with the 2017 Jaguars. He jumped to the Dolphins in 2019 and then the Bengals in 2021. 

Bettcher joined the NFL via the 2012 Colts, where he served as the outside LBs coach under interim HC Bruce Arians, whom he followed to Arizona the following year and whom he eventually served as Cardinals DC (2015-17), overseeing a unit that never finished worse than No. 6 in yards. After two tough years as the Giants DC (2018-19), he was a senior assistant for the 2021 49ers and then joined the Bengals last year. 

Burks was a college DBs coach and coordinator before joining the 2019 Dolphins as an assistant and then being promoted in 2021 to CBs coach, the role he assumed with the Bengals in 2022. Livingston has been with the Bengals since 2012, first as a scout and then assistant. Named secondary coach in 2016 under the Lewis regime, he has focused on safeties since 2018 and has overseen one of the league’s best safety groups since 2020.

2023 Bengals defensive unit rankings

2023 special teams

• Asst. HC/Special Teams Coordinator: Darrin Simmons
• Assistant Special Teams Coordinator: Colt Anderson

Simmons has been the Special Teams coordinator for the Bengals since 2003. If it ain’t broke, don’t fire it. Taylor endowed Simmons with the Assistant HC honorific in 2020. Anderson was a college walk-on safety who eventually became team captain and first-team All-American at Montana before grinding out nine years in the NFL as an undrafted defensive backup and special teams baller. In 2020, the Bengals gave him his first coaching gig as Simmons’ assistant.

Projected Bengals 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Joe Burrow
• Backups: Trevor Siemian, Jake Browning
• Notable Turnover: Brandon Allen (49ers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 4

Burrow set college football on fire with the championship-winning 2019 LSU team (5,671 yards, 60 touchdowns passing), entered the league as the No. 1 pick, and flashed as a rookie before tearing his ACL, earning Comeback Player of the Year in 2021 with a league-high 9.0 adjusted yards per attempt. He then, of course, led the Bengals to back-to-back AFC Championship games. 

Burrow has been No. 2 in composite EPA and completion percentage over expected since he reunited with LSU teammate and No. 1 WR Ja’Marr Chase in 2021 (including playoffs, per RBs Don’t Matter). He’s certainly a top-five and maybe a top-three QB. 

Siemian will replace 2020-22 backup Allen as Burrow’s No. 2. The Bengals should pray that they never need to use him: He has 30 NFL starts but has never completed even 60% of his passes in any season. Browning went undrafted in 2019 after a four-year starting career at Washington and has been with the Bengals as the No. 3 QB since 2021. With a good camp, he might be able to beat out Siemian.

Projections as of June 12.

Running Backs

• Starter: Joe Mixon
• Backups: Chase Brown, Trayveon Williams
• Borderline: Chris Evans
• Notable Turnover: Samaje Perine (Broncos)
• Unit Ranking: No. 16

Mixon is mired in legal matters (he was charged with one count of aggravated menacing in April) and has had off-field issues dating back to his college days at Oklahoma, where he served a one-year suspension for violence. He has also missed 18 games across his six-year career. One way or another, he’s uncertain to play a full season for the Bengals — but on the field, Mixon has accumulated 6,228 yards and 46 touchdowns from scrimmage in 66 games over the past half-decade, and he will still be just 27 years old in Week 1. 

Brown is a fifth-round rookie with good athleticism (4.43-second 40-yard dash), size (209 pounds), college production (back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons at Illinois) and pass-catching ability (27-240-3 receiving as a senior). He should be the frontrunner to replace Perine as the No. 2 back. 

Williams is a 2019 sixth-rounder who played just 37 offensive snaps last year, but he did serve as the team’s top kick returner and is higher on the depth chart than Evans, a 2021 size/speed sixth-rounder who got some opportunities as a rookie (17 carries, 17 targets) but fell out of favor with the team last year.

Projections as of June 12.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

• WR Starters: Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd
• WR Backups: Trenton Irwin, Charlie Jones, Andrei Iosivas
• TE Starter: Irv Smith
• TE Backups: Drew Sample, Devin Asiasi
• Borderline: WRs Trent Taylor & Stanley Morgan, TE Tanner Hudson
• Notable Turnover: WR Mike Thomas (Ravens), TEs Hayden Hurst (Panthers) & Mitchell Wilcox (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 2

Chase already has 2,501 yards receiving through two seasons despite missing five games last year. He’s just one of three WRs in NFL history to hit the 2,500-yard mark before turning 23 years old: The other two are Justin Jefferson and Randy Moss. He has the potential to be an all-time great. 

Higgins has back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons despite playing alongside a target hog in Chase. With elite size (6-foot-4 and 216 pounds) and ball skills, Higgins is an elite No. 2 receiver and arguably a top-12 WR in his own right. Boyd is an ideal slot compliment: He has the ability to play outside if needed and the capacity to step up if Chase or Higgins is out, as evidenced by his vacuum-induced 1,000-yard campaigns in 2018-19. 

Jan 29, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins (85) makes a catch as Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Joshua Williams (23) defends during the second quarter of the AFC Championship game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Irwin is an über-competent No. 4 WR who can line up at all three positions and make plays (10.0 yards per target for his career, albeit on just 30 targets). Jones is a fourth-round rookie who will be limited to the slot because of his size (5-foot-11 and 175 pounds), but he has sufficient athleticism (4.43-second 40-yard dash), good production (110-1,361-12 receiving in his final season at Purdue) and return skills (two TDs in college, one on punts, the other on kicks). He could push the veteran Taylor off the roster this year as a returner and backup and Boyd next year as the starting slot receiver. 

Iosivas is a sixth-round rookie track star with first-team Ivy-League accolades, prototypical size (6-foot-3 and 205 pounds) and the potential to grow into a dynamic perimeter receiver. He could replace the veteran Morgan this year as a special teamer and Irwin next year as the No. 4 WR.

Smith showed promise as a second-rounder in his first two seasons with the Vikings, but he missed all of 2021 and half of 2022 to different injuries. Still young (he turns 25 shortly before Week 1), Smith signed a one-year deal à la 2022 Evan Engram and will be responsible for filling the role vacated by Hurst as the Bengals hope to catch some of the second-contract magic we periodically see at the position. 

Sample is a 2019 second-rounder who has been the team’s No. 2 TE since 2020, but he missed almost all of 2022, signed a deal for just one year and contributes little as a pass catcher (458 yards for his career). He’s vulnerable to Asiasi and Hudson, all of whom have comparable base salaries of around $1M. Right now, Sample gets the nod over Asiasi because of his long tenure with the team, and Asiasi (a former four-star third-rounder) gets preference over the older, undrafted journeyman Hudson because of his long-term potential and $892,960 in guaranteed money — but I can imagine this three-way battle shaking out in any way.

Projections as of June 12.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Orlando Brown, LG Cordell Volson, C Ted Karras, RG Alex Cappa, RT Jonah Williams
• Backups: OT La’El Collins, G/T Jackson Carman, G/T Cody Ford, C/G Trey Hill
• Borderline: T/G Hakeem Adeniji, G Max Scharping
• Unit Ranking: No. 16

Brown is a four-time Pro Bowler who started out at right tackle before successfully anchoring the blindside for QBs Lamar Jackson (2020 Ravens) and Patrick Mahomes (2021-22 Chiefs). Acquired via free agency this offseason, Brown has never had a PFF pass-blocking grade below 74.4. 

Volson had a subpar rookie season in 2022, allowing 43 pressures across 19 starts. He could lose his job with a poor camp. Karras joined the Bengals last year and stabilized the pivot with a 76.1 PFF pass-blocking grade. A 2016 sixth-rounder for the Patriots, he has been a full-time starter for the past four seasons. Like Karras, Cappa signed with the Bengals last offseason. A four-year starter who previously protected QB Tom Brady for the Buccaneers, Cappa has improved steadily throughout his career. 

Williams was a unanimous All-American first-rounder for the Bengals in 2019, and after missing his rookie year he was the team’s starting LT for the 2020-22 campaigns — but Brown’s arrival now pushes Williams to RT. After initially requesting a trade, he has accepted his new position and seems motivated to perform and demonstrate his versatility in a contract year.

Collins has been a solid starter (first at LG, then RT) ever since entering the league in 2015, and he joined the Bengals last year after seven seasons with the Cowboys to be Burrow’s “new bodyguard” — but he had a career-worst 44.2 PFF pass-blocking grade in 2022, and the addition of Brown is likely to make Collins a backup, especially since he suffered ACL and MCL tears in Week 16 and might not be ready to open the year. 

Carman is a 2021 second-rounder who made six poor spot starts at RG and LG as a rookie — but last year he stepped up in a big way with two cromulent starts in the playoffs at LT after Williams was lost to injury. He has potential and could challenge Volson for his spot. Ford has long underperformed expectations as a 2019 second-rounder for the Bills, but he has 32 starts to his name and experience at both guard spots and RT. Hill has been the No. 2 C for the Bengals since his 2021 rookie season. He’s an average backup with guard versatility. 

Adeniji has theoretical outside/inside versatility with multiple starts at LT, RT and RG, but the 2020 sixth-rounder has never had better than a 53.6 PFF pass-blocking grade and was miserable at RT last year after Collins went down. He could make the roster if Collins is out to start the year, but I don’t think he deserves it. Scharping is a 2019 second-round disappointment with lots of starting experience — just like Ford — but unlike Ford, he offers no tackle flexibility. He was poor in his three playoff starts last year filling in for Cappa at RG.

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Sam Hubbard, Trey Hendrickson
• EDGE Backups: Myles Murphy, Cameron Sample, Joseph Ossai, Tarell Basham
• DT Starters: B.J. Hill, D.J. Reader
• DT Backups: Zachary Carter, Josh Tupou, Jay Tufele
• Unit Ranking: No. 15

Hubbard is a hometown second-contract veteran with four seasons as a slightly above-average starter. Always strong in run defense, he has improved as a pass rusher with 22 sacks over the past years (including playoffs). Hendrickson is the counterbalance to Hubbard: Nearly elite as a pass rusher (86.9 and 87.7 PFF grades) since joining the Bengals two years ago — but bad against the run. Given the importance of pressure off the edge, Hendrickson has made the Pro Bowl in each of the past seasons. 

Murphy is a first-round rookie with elite recruitment pedigree (five stars) and athleticism (4.52-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-5 and 268 pounds). He’ll contribute immediately as a rotational rusher. Sample is a 2021 fourth-rounder who improved in his second season but still has just six career snaps (including playoffs). Ossai is a 2021 third-rounder who missed his rookie year to injury but was an average depth rusher though a liability against the run. Basham is a career nomad joining the Bengals with respectable PFF grades across the board as a depth defender.

Hill is a solidly above-average second-contract run defender and pass-rusher whom the Bengals acquired via trade two years ago. Reader is a near-elite interior presence who joined the team in 2020 after four years with the Texans. He is dominant in no one phase, but he can line up at NT with his size (6-foot-3 and 347 pounds) and is consistently strong against the run and pushing the pocket. 

Carter was the team’s No. 3 DT last year as a third-round rookie. He got blown up frequently in run defense, but he did improve throughout the season. Topou is a B-gap DT in an A gap’s body (6-foot-3 and 340 pounds). He played well against the run in 2018-19 but opted out of the 2020 season and has offered little since returning in 2021. Tufele was cut by the Jaguars after his rookie campaign, but he had an acceptable sophomore season last year with the Bengals, especially as a situational pass rusher (four pressures on 55 snaps).

Off-ball Linebackers

• Starters: Logan Wilson, Germaine Pratt
• Backups: Akeem Davis-Gaither, Markus Bailey
• Borderline: Joe Bachie
• Unit Ranking: No. 12

Wilson is a contract-year third-rounder who has improved in run defense, coverage, and tackling every year. Pratt — like Wilson — has improved throughout his career. Last year he had a top-notch 87.2 PFF coverage grade, and this offseason the Bengals gave him a three-year extension. Davis-Gaither is an average-ish defender, but the 2020 fourth-rounder knows the system well enough and can be counted on to contribute 200-plus snaps each year. Bailey has underperformed defensively whenever given sustained playing time, but he’s a strong special teamer, as is Bachie, who suited up more often than not last year. But if the Bengals go with only four LBs, the fourth-year undrafted Bachie will be an easy cut.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Chidobe Awuzie, Cam Taylor-Britt, Mike Hilton
• CB Backups: D.J. Turner, Sidney Jones, CB Jalen Davis
• S Starters: Daxton Hill, Nick Scott
• S Backups: Jordan Battle, Michael Thomas, Tycen Anderson
• Borderline: CB D.J. Ivey
• Notable Turnover: CBs Eli Apple (free agent) & Tre Flowers (Falcons), SS Vonn Bell (Panthers), FS Jessie Bates (Falcons)
• Unit Ranking: No. 14

Awuzie isn’t an elite No. 1 corner, but he has been a solid outside defender throughout his career, starting with his 2017 rookie season for the Cowboys. Blessed with good size (6-foot-0 and 202 pounds) and athleticism (4.43-second 40-yard dash), he has impressed with just 5.0 yards per target allowed in his two years with the Bengals (including playoffs) — but he’s coming off a Week 8 ACL tear and might not be ready to open the year. 

Taylor-Britt is a 2022 second-rounder who allowed a completion rate of only 54.7% last year and performed especially well in the playoffs (13 targets, 33 yards). He’ll compete with Turner for a starting spot, but his rookie play gives him the edge. 

Hilton is a dependable slot man who defected from the rival Steelers two years ago. Turner is a second-round rookie with undesirable size (5-foot-11 and 178 pounds) but blazing speed (4.26-second 40-yard dash) and the ability to line up across the formation. He’s unlikely to be worse than the exiled Apple. 

Jones is a 27-year-old perimeter journeyman with a boom/bust profile but 27 starts on his ledger. Davis is a veteran backup slot defender who has been a core Bengals special teamer for two years — but he’ll need to beat out rookie seventh-rounder Ivey.

Hill is a 2022 first-rounder who played far behind starters Bell and Bates last year. Drafted in anticipation of their departure this offseason and capable of playing in the slot, in the box and deep downfield, Hill now has the opportunity to demonstrate his talent — but he is green. Scott had a career-high 984 snaps last year for the Rams but a career-worst 43.4 PFF coverage grade in his first campaign as a starter. The Bengals are outright gambling that the fifth-year offseason acquisition will bounce back to average as a replacement for Bates at FS, and he could indirectly face competition from third-round rookie Battle, a three-year starter at Alabama with a nose for the ball (252 tackles, six interceptions). 

If Battle impresses in camp, he could start at SS and enable Hill to play at FS, pushing Scott to the bench. Thomas has played only 117 snaps in two years with the Bengals, but he enters his 12th season with 34 starts and a wealth of experience. In the absence of Bell and Bates, he will need to be a mentor for the young players, such as Anderson, a 2022 fifth-rounder who was on IR as a rookie.

Specialists

• Kicker: Evan McPherson
• Punter: Brad Robbins
• Holder: Brad Robbins
• Long Snapper: Cal Adomitis
• Kick Returner: Charlie Jones
• Punt Returner: Charlie Jones
• Borderline: P/H Drue Chrisman, PR Trent Taylor

McPherson is a good 87.7% on all field goal attempts across his two year career — and an exceptional 17-of-19 on kicks of 50-plus yards. In big moments, he delivers. Robbins is a sixth-round rookie with a real chance to compete against and beat the incumbent Chrisman: If the Bengals were satisfied with Chrisman, they wouldn’t have drafted a punter. 

Adomitis joined the team last year as an undrafted rookie replacement for longtime LS Clark Harris, earning a 70.4% PFF special teams grade. Jones was a strong college returner (45-1,002-1 on kicks, 77-622-1 on punts) who could supplant No. 3 RB Trayveon Williams as KR and push Taylor off the roster as PR.

Bengals schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Bengals’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 18
• Home Division: AFC North
• Opposing Division: AFC South, NFC West
• Key Stretch: Weeks 9-16
• Opponents: at CIN, vs. DEN, vs. NYJ, at PHI, BYE, at KC, vs. DAL, at LAC

The Bengals — despite their recent postseason success — have a moderate schedule based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents, thanks primarily to soft-ish matchups against the AFC South and NFC West. On top of that, they’re one of just four teams with no three-of-four away stretches, and their Week 7 bye is nicely situated toward the middle of the season. But they have a relatively tough slate of games right after the bye.

In Week 8, they travel to San Francisco to play the 49ers, and then they return home to host the Bills on Sunday Night Football. In Week 10, they have their one “gimme” in this stretch — a potential trap game at home against the Texans — after which they have back-to-back divisional matchups on the road against the Ravens on Thursday Night Football and at home against the Steelers. Then they close out this six-game stint on the road against the Jaguars on Monday Night Football.

Five of those games the Bengals could lose without causing a shock, and if they end up on the wrong side of randomness they could legitimately go 1-5 right out of the bye. If the Bengals are to win the No. 1 seed in the AFC, they will need to hold serve at the very least in Weeks 8-13.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Bengals.

• Taylor’s vanilla offensive scheme starts to taste tasteless.
• Anarumo’s no-name defense hurts from its lack of star power.
• Burrow clashes with Taylor about the scheme and struggles to get into a rhythm for multi-series stretches.
• Mixon misses time because of legal issues, and no one steps up to carry the load.
• Chase grows frustrated by the defensive attention he receives, and Higgins becomes increasingly annoyed with Burrow, who too often forces the ball to Chase in an attempt to placate his No. 1 option. 
• Smith does absolutely nothing of note.
• Brown struggles in the new offense, Volson continues to be a protection liability and Williams adapts slowly to life on the right side.
• Hubbard, Hendrickson, Hill and Reader all play just a little bit worse.
• Wilson and Pratt have a minimal impact in games because LBs don’t matter.
• Awuzie misses the first half of the year, and Taylor-Britt and Turner are frequently exposed in coverage.
• Hill and Scott prove to be poor replacements for Bell and Bates.
• McPherson suddenly regresses to average from 50-plus yards.
• Bengals sneak into the playoffs as a non-division winner, but they get blown out by the Bills in Buffalo on Super Wild Card Weekend.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Bengals.

• Taylor continues to evolve as an offensive schemer and play-caller.
• Anarumo proves that he doesn’t need stars on defense.
• Burrow leads the league in passing yardage.
• Mixon averages 100 scrimmage yards and one touchdown per game.
• Chase and Higgins both have 1,000 yards receiving for the third year in a row.
• Smith has a breakout season and establishes himself as Burrow’s favorite red zone weapon.
• Brown and Williams both have Pro Bowl campaigns at tackle, and Volson loses his LG job in camp to Carman, who plays like a mauler.
• Hubbard, Hendrickson, Hill and Reader all play a little bit better than they did last year.
• Wilson and Pratt take some pressure off their safeties by providing exceptional coverage in the middle of the field.
• Awuzie returns to action in Week 1, and Taylor-Britt and Turner play like seasoned veterans.
• Hill quickly morphs into an across-the-field playmaker, and Scott enjoys positive regression to adequate.
• McPherson stays in God Mode.  
• Bengals earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC and steamroll their way to a Super Bowl victory as Burrow channels the spirit of the 2019 LSU machine.

In-season betting angles

I view the Bengals as a moderate “bet on” team that will likely offer the most advantage on the road based on the following trends.

• Burrow on Road: 18-8 ATS (33.1% ROI)
• Burrow on Road: 14-11-1 ML (19.1% ROI)

He has also done well as an underdog.

• Burrow as Underdog: 16-8 ATS (27.8% ROI)
• Burrow as Underdog: 10-13-1 ML (20.5% ROI)

While Burrow has been pedestrian against AFC North teams (9-7 ATS, 8-8 ML), he has trounced non-divisional opponents.

• Burrow Outside Division: 23-10 ATS (33.9% ROI)
• Burrow Outside Division: 21-11-1 ML (31.5% ROI)

An ice-veined assassin, Burrow will especially have my attention in Weeks 14-18, when the Bengals play five consecutive outdoor games that all have the potential for cold weather.

• Burrow in Temperature No Higher Than 35 Degrees: 6-2 ATS (44.5% ROI)
• Burrow in Temperature No Higher Than 35 Degrees: 7-1 ML (75.2% ROI)

At no point in the year am I actively looking to bet against the Bengals as of now.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason betting market to exploit

We currently have a synthetic low-hold market on whether the Bengals make the playoffs.

• To Make Playoffs: -285, DraftKings
• To Miss Playoffs: +280, BetMGM

But I don’t want to bet into any of the team futures markets this far out from the season, so instead I’ll look at the individual season-long yardage markets.

Tee Higgins Under 7.5 Touchdowns Receiving (-120, BetMGM)

The line for Higgins’ touchdown prop is 6.5 (-140 to the under) at Caesars, and the 7.5 at DraftKings is -130 to the under, so we’re getting the best of the market at BetMGM.

Additionally, I have him projected for 6.6 touchdowns, so there’s an exploitable delta between the market and my expectations.

At -120, there’s a 54.6% implied probability that Higgins hits the under, but I think the real odds are greater: In three seasons he has had only 6-7 touchdowns despite getting 100-plus targets each year.

I have Higgins projected for a career-high 120.2 targets, but even so eight touchdowns will be a tough number to hit, given the significant competition for red-zone usage he has in Mixon, Chase, Boyd and now even Smith.

Even if Higgins has a great season — like 1,200 yards — he could still conceivably have only seven touchdowns based on where he’s targeted, and if the Bengals offense markedly regresses then eight touchdowns will be extremely unlikely.

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