College Football Best Bets for Week 5: Can Mississippi State Hang with Alabama?
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College Football Best Bets for Week 5: Can Mississippi State Hang with Alabama?

Kody Malstrom breaks down his three best college football bets for Week 5, including angles on Alabama vs. Mississippi State and Miami against Clemson.

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Kicking off Saturday’s slate is a highly anticipated matchup between Alabama and Mississippi State, pitting two SEC contenders that have exceeded expectations against each other. To round out the card, we turn our attention toward Miami and Memphis, with both playoff hopefuls drawing very favorable matchups.

Here are the best college football bets to make in Week 5.

College Football Best Bets for Week 5

Alabama vs. Mississippi State (Team Total o27.5) (-105, BetMGM)

After starting the year 4-0, the Mississippi State Bulldogs are now just one win away from cashing the over on the regular-season win total. This is a stunning start to the year for a team that was expected to finish near the bottom of the SEC standings, yet Kamario Taylor has turned Mississippi State’s offense into a well-oiled machine, leading the Bulldogs to top-35 marks in success rate, explosiveness, finishing drives and havoc allowed.

Heading into Week 5’s SEC tilt against Alabama, the Bulldogs will be able to continue to light up the scoreboard by taking advantage of a defense that ranks outside the top-100 in defensive explosiveness and points per opportunity. By allowing Taylor to consistently flip the field with an explosive play, Mississippi State will be able to get into the red zone at a higher rate, leading to an uptick in the Bulldogs' total number of scoring opportunities.

With Alabama residing in the bottom half of the board in havoc allowed, Mississippi State will be able to stall out the Crimson Tide early on in the drive by creating disruptions and get the ball back in Taylor’s hands in quick order. Bet the Bulldogs to clear the over of 27.5 on the team total with a stop point at the key number of 28.

Miami vs. Clemson (Team Total u15.5) (-110, BetMGM)

While Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney hog the spotlight, the Miami Hurricanes defense has quietly been just as productive as the offense, entering Week 5 ranked near the top of the board in success rate and finishing drives. Even when creating havoc at a low rate, the Hurricanes are able to hold opponents to minimal gains, keeping them comfortably behind the sticks.

In a conference matchup against Clemson, the Hurricanes will be able to create havoc at a higher rate by bottling up an offense that ranks 127th in havoc allowed. The transition to Tait Reynolds has not given the Tigers the production they need to elevate the offense, leading a pass attack that resides in the bottom 20 in pass play PPA.

With Clemson’s running backs also struggling to create explosive plays on the ground, the Tigers will have no clear path to the red zone, making them prone to falling into a prolonged cold stretch of play. If you want to diversify your risk, place a separate wager on the Hurricanes to cover the spread at no higher than -17.

Memphis (-20.5) vs. Charlotte (-110, DraftKings)

Since the start of the regular season, Charlotte has been abysmal on offense, fielding a group that ranks 127th in success rate, 132nd in explosiveness and 133rd in points per opportunity. With the offensive line struggling to hold its ground, Cole Gonzales is forced to ward off pressure, drastically lowering the quality of his throws.

With the 49ers vulnerable to stalling out, Memphis will be able to quickly pull away on the scoreboard by exploiting a defense that ranks well below league average in finishing drives and EPA per play. Charlotte’s inability will make it easier for the Tigers to methodically move the ball down the field, leading to an uptick in the total number of scoring opportunities.

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