Freedman's Best Bets: Jared Goff Surpasses His Passing Mark

In this piece I want to emphasize 32 NFL bets I like for 2026.

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Best Bets for the 2026 NFL Season

How I Approach the Betting Market

As you might know, I'm something of a human wet blanket. That means I tend to prefer unders, especially since betting markets tend to exploit the innate desire most people have for overs.

But if I am bullish on a team, you'll find that instead of taking the over on a season win total at middling odds (for instance) I'm likelier to venture into the futures markets and bet that team to make the playoffs or win the division, conference or Super Bowl at a far more attractive price.

I'm not often optimistic. But when I am, I usually try to do more than just turn a dollar into another dollar.

Passing Is Down Across the NFL

As Dwain McFarland has noted in his excellent pieces on the QB position, passing has been on a downward trajectory over the past half decade and especially for the past three seasons.

• What Matters for QBs
• QB Draft Strategy
• QB Fantasy Tiers

With this in mind, I think that a number of passing unders will be profitable in 2026. Here are four that stand out at DraftKings.

Highest Individual Passing Total: Under 4,950.5 Yards

Odds: -140

This one is fairly simple. No player has hit this number over the past three years.

In 2023, Tua Tagovailoa led the league in passing with 4,624 yards. The next year, Joe Burrow with 4,918. Last year, Matthew Stafford with 4,707.

I doubt we see any individual QB get enough dropbacks this year to cross 4.950.5 yards.

Highest Individual Interceptions Total: Under 17.5

Odds: -120

In order for a QB to get 18+ INTs in a season, he needs to be a subpar full-time starter who gets lots of dropbacks.

That just doesn't happen all that often.

The epitome of this guy is Sam Howell, who started all 17 games and had a league-high 612 pass attempts in 2023 as a fifth-round rookie. The result: An astonishing 21 INTs.

But this year we probably won't see a bad rookie QB who starts 17 games. And I also doubt we'll see a bad veteran QB start 17 games, because most of those guys are backed up by rookies who could syphon off 2-6 starts at the end of the season.

Example: Last year Geno Smith had 17 INTs … and then he didn't play in Week 18.

If a QB is bad enough to throw 18+ INTs in a season, he probably won't actually get the chance to throw 18+ INTs.

Longest Individual Reception Distance: Under 94.5 Yards

Odds: -115

This one is just a numbers game.

With fewer attempts, the odds of a completed pass that goes for 95+ yards drop dramatically.

Last year, Tutu Atwell had the NFL's longest reception at 88 yards.

Boring.

Highest Individual Receptions Total: Under 130.5

Odds: -115

Over the past three years, just one player has hit the over: CeeDee Lamb in 2023 with 135 receptions on 181 targets.

But in 2024, Ja'Marr Chase led the league with 127 receptions. In 2025, Puka Nacua led with 129.

It's not unthinkable for a player to get more than 130 receptions in a season, but that would likely require 180+ targets, and that's an increasingly hard number for a guy to hit in today's NFL.

2026 NFL Offenses

In order to create our NFL Game Model—Week 1 lines are now live!)—I first build baseline projections for every offense and defense.

Looking now at Caesar’s and their markets for most/fewest points scored, I like these two bets.

Team With Most Points Scored: 49ers

Odds: +1200

The 49ers are No. 2 in my offensive rankings but No. 8 in the market.

In QB Brock Purdy's three full seasons as a starter, the 49ers are No. 2 in offensive yards per game (6.11) and success rate (48.3%) and No. 3 in EPA per play (0.102, per RBs Don't Matter).

They have perhaps the league's best all-round RB in Christian McCaffrey (No. 1 with a 98 Utilization Score last year, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

LT Trent Williams, TE George Kittle and FB Kyle Juszczyk are top-3 players at their positions.

HC Kyle Shanahan might be the league's best offensive schemer.

Their WR room has questions (Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, De'Zhaun Stribling), but the 49ers still look very much like a top-3 offense to me.

Team With Fewest Points Scored: Texans

Odds: +3500

I don't want to say exactly where I have the Texans offense ranked, but let's just say that I think it sucks, whereas the market thinks it's merely mediocre (No. 19).

But over the past three years (with QB C.J. Stroud), the Texans are No. 28 in offensive success rate (40.7%). And last year (with new OC Nick Caley), they weren't any better, still ranking No. 28 (41.6%).

The Texans probably won't have the league's worst offense this year, but that's accounted for in the odds. Still, I think it's well within the range of outcomes.

Win Totals at Plus Money

If I do bet win totals, I strongly prefer to do so at plus money, even if that means I need to dip into the alternative markets.

Here are three plus-money win total bets I like right now at DraftKings.

Cardinals Win Total: Over 4.5

Odds: +154

I think the market's too low on the Cardinals primarily because of the strength of the NFC West (with the Rams, Seahawks and 49ers).

But they have two almost acceptable veteran QBs in Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew, and they actually boast one of the league's better skill-position supporting groups with RB Jeremiyah Love, WRs Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr., and especially TE Trey McBride.

Also, shoutout to me for starting with an over.

Ravens Win Total: Under 10.5

Odds: +125

This one basically boils down to three factors.

1. QB Lamar Jackson at age 29 might now be a slightly diminished version of himself.
2. HC Jesse Minter has never led an NFL team before.
3. OC Declan Doyle has never called NFL plays before.

The Ravens could win the Super Bowl … but they could also disappoint with "only" 10 wins.

Panthers Win Total: Under 6.5

Odds: +134

The Panthers won the NFC South last year … with an 8-9 record and -69 point differential.

Now they must play a first-place schedule.

This feels like such an easy fade.

Season-Long Player Overs

Season-long player props are bread-and-better bets. They won't make you rich, but they might help you put on a little weight.

Usually I tend to take season-long unders (because there are just so many ways for them to hit), which means that it's notable when I like an over.

So here are 21 of my favorite overs at DraftKings, broken up by position.

2026 NFL Quarterback Props

Jared Goff Passing Yards Total: Over 4,099.5

Odds: +100

In our 2026 player projections, we have Jared Goff projected for 4,242 yards passing, which feels easily attainable given that he's had these totals over the past four years.

• 2025: 4,564
• 2024: 4,629
• 2023: 4,575
• 2022: 4,438

Honestly, we might be too low on Goff.

Tyler Shough Passing Yards Total: Over 3,499.5

Odds: -120

I'm high on Tyler Shough.

He doesn't have quite the pocket-passing prowess of Joe Burrow or Goff, but last year (as a second-round rookie), he passed for 256.9 yards per game after the Week 11 bye. Based on the effortlessness with which he throws the ball and the likelihood that he will enjoy the typical improvement most second-year QBs see, Shough has a chance to elevate himself into a tier with the league's best passers.

Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Total: Over 3,149.5

Odds: -105

Aaron Rodgers has hit this number in literally every season he has started 10+ games.

Over the past two years, he's had 3,322 and 3,897 yards passing, respectively.

Unless he gets benched or injured, he's getting there.

Kyler Murray Passing Yards Total: Over 3,049.5

Odds: -110

I can't speak to his injury probability, but I blindly trust that Kyler Murray will be able to hold off backup J.J. McCarthy.

Jayden Daniels Rushing Yards Total: Over 549.5

Odds: -110

For his career, Jayden Daniels has averaged an elite 48.7 rushing yards per game. This is basically a bet that Daniels stays healthy, and I don't see a strong reason (as of yet) to believe that he's an injury-prone player.

2026 NFL Wide Receiver Props

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Total: Over 1,149.5

Odds: -110

Justin Jefferson has crushed this number in every season except when he:

1. Missed seven games.
2. Had J.J. McCarthy as his starting QB.

I have him as my No. 4 WR in our fantasy football rankings. Enough said.

George Pickens Receiving Yards Total: Over 1,049.5

Odds: -110

Nah, brah, nah.

Last year George Pickens had 1,429 yards. He likely would've surpassed this line in 2024 if not for missing three games (he still had 900 yards), and in 2023 he had 1,140.

In one of the league's best pass offenses, Pickens has a solid and high floor.

Tetairoa McMillan Receiving Yards Total: Over 949.5

Odds: -110

I'm the highest on Tetairoa McMillan in our Fantasy Life fantasy ranks.

I wish that he weren't attached to QB Bryce Young, but last year as the offensive rookie of the year he had 1,014 yards receiving and was the No. 5 WR in air yard share (43%).

On top of that, he could take a sizable second-season leap into the position's elite tiers with his big-play downfield ability.

Luther Burden Receiving Yards Total: Over 849.5

Odds: -110

I'm a Luther Burden skeptic, and even I can see that this number is too low.

Burden had a modest-looking rookie campaign (47-652-2 receiving, 60 targets), but his usage (45 targets) and production (481 yards receiving) picked up in the final eight games after he returned from injury in Week 10, and for the season he was the No. 8 WR in efficiency (10.9 yards per target).

The No. 1 WR in the 2022 recruitment class, Burden exploded as a college sophomore with 86-1,212-9 receiving. He could similarly enjoy a second-year NFL breakout in 2026.

Christian Watson Receiving Yards Total: Over 774.5

Odds: -110

Christian Watson has missed 20 games across his four-year career, so he's yet to hit this line in any season, and I hate betting on guys to do something they've never done before.

But he has been beautifully efficient in the NFL (10.0 yards per target), especially over the past two years (11.4), and in 2025 he was the No. 1 WR for the Packers (20% target share, 35% air yard share) after returning in Week 8 from his 2024 ACL tear.

In 2026, we might finally see the long-awaited Watson explosion.

Michael Wilson Receiving Yards Total: Over 724.5

Odds: +110

Just miss me with this number.

In my mind, Wilson (and not Harrison) is the No. 1 WR for the Cardinals.

Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Total: Over 699.5

Odds: -110

We can't just automatically assume that Jaylen Waddle will be the new No. 1 WR for the Broncos in his first year with the team.

Sutton has had 700+ yards receiving every year of his career minus his one-game injury-impacted 2020 campaign, and over the past two seasons he has amassed 1,017 and 1,081 yards, respectively.

I don't want him in fantasy, but the betting market is overselling Sutton.

Chris Godwin Receiving Yards Total: Over 699.5

Odds: -110

Chris Godwin has missed 18 games over the past two seasons, and last year he had the most inefficient campaign of his career (7.1 yards per target), but after returning from an ankle/fibula injury, he looked much more like his former self in the season's final six games (9.1 yards per target).

Now 30 years old, Godwin is at best equal parts peril and possibility entering 2026, but if he stays healthy, one final 1,000-yard performance could materialize without former No. 1 WR Mike Evans.

2026 NFL Running Back Props

Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards Total: Over 449.5

Odds: -110

Upon entering his full studliness in 2024, Jahmyr Gibbs has had 616 and 517 yards receiving, respectively, over the past two seasons.

If he stays healthy, he should crush this number.

Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards Total: Over 1,099.5

Odds: -110

In his two years with the Eagles, Saquon Barkley has put up 3,145 yards rushing in 32 games.

And over the past four years: 5,419 yards in 62 games.

Barkley's now 29 years old, but he's still an explosive RB who should benefit from a run-heavy offense and top-3 defense.

Javonte Williams Rushing Yards Total: Over 949.5

Odds: -110

Javonte Williams crushed last year with 1,201 yards rushing, and the Cowboys are returning the same backfield this year.

I have the Cowboys projected with the No. 6 offense this year, so I expect Williams once again to have 200+ carries in 2026 as long as he stays healthy.

Travis Etienne Rushing Yards Total: Over 824.5

Odds: -110

Travis Etienne has easily gone over this number with 1,000+ yards rushing in three of four years, and No. 2 RB Alvin Kamara (knee) will miss the beginning of the season.

Another 1,000+ yards seems probable for Etienne on a Saints team I expect to improve.

Jadarian Price Rushing Yards Total: Over 724.5

Odds: -110

Even though I think the Seahawks massively overdrafted Jadarian Price, he's now in a great situation to produce right away.

• The Seahawks invested first-round capital into him.
• Former starter Kenneth Walker is gone.
• No. 2 RB Zach Charbonnet (knee) is still recovering from a severe postseason injury.

Price is not big (203 pounds), fast (4.49-second 40-yard dash), sudden (1.61-second 10-yard split) nor young (23 years old in October), and he wasn't prolific in college (1,517 yards, 20 TDs as Jeremiyah Love's backup in final two seasons).

But I still think he'll probably be the No. 1 RB for the reigning Super Bowl champs in Week 1.

Rico Dowdle Rushing Yards Total: Over 699.5

Odds: -110

Rico Dowdle is one of just 11 RBs with 1,300+ scrimmage yards in each of the past two seasons, and he's also the only one of the cohort to accomplish this feat on two different teams.

It's unlikely, but reunited with former Cowboys HC and current Steelers HC Mike McCarthy, Dowdle might be a 1,300-yard guy once again.

And even if he isn't, he could still crush this line.

2026 NFL EDGE Props

David Bailey Sacks Total: Over 6.25

Odds: -110

David Bailey had an FBS-high 14.5 sacks last year, and then the Jets selected him with the No. 2 pick in April.

With an elite physical profile (4.50-second 40-yard dash at 6-4, 251 lbs.), Bailey looks like the kind of guy who gets around 7.5 sacks as a rookie.

Chase Young Sacks Total: Over 7.75

Odds: -115

Last year, in his first season with DC Brandon Staley, Chase Young finally turned into a dude with 10.0 sacks in 12 games.

It was a career-high number, but I don't think it was a fluke. It was just him turning into the guy we expected him to be following his 2021 Defensive Rookie of the Year campaign.

2026 Super Bowl & MVP Picks

Here they are: The big daddy bets, via DraftKings.

Vikings to Win Super Bowl

Odds: +5000

What if HC Kevin O'Connell can turn Kyler Murray (who has already flashed in his career) into another version of 2024 Sam Darnold?

In that case we'd have a highly efficient passer paired with a strong playcaller and supported by a top-6 defense.

In other words: We might have another version of the 2025 Seahawks.

At the current odds, I also like the 49ers (+1900, DraftKings) and Packers (+2200, FanDuel) to win the Super Bowl, but I think the Vikings represent the most value.

Matthew Stafford to Win Most Valuable Player

Odds: +1400

At the end of the season, the MVP is almost always the QB on one of the league's best teams.

And in the preseason, the QBs for the teams with the highest win totals and shortest odds to win the Super Bowl usually are at the top of the MVP bet board.

Right now, the Rams are No. 1 in market win total (11.5, over -130) and odds to win the Super Bowl (+550).

And yet Rams QB Matthew Stafford is No. 6 in MVP odds.

On top of that, I have the Rams projected for a league-high 11.8 wins, and they're the only team I have ranked with a top-5 offense and defense, which makes them my model's top team.

In two of his five seasons with the Rams, Stafford has passed for 4,500+ yards and 40+ TDs. The first such campaign was 2021, when the team won the Super Bowl. The second was last year … when Stafford won MVP.

If the Rams play like one of the league's best teams this year, it will likely be because Stafford once again performs at an MVP-caliber level.

I also like Jalen Hurts (+3000, Hard Rock) and Jordan Love (+3300) in this market, but Stafford is my favorite: He best hits the center of the value/probability Venn diagram.

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