The hot streak has cooled a little, but last week gave me my seventh consecutive session of prop profitability.
- Week 5: 8-5, +2.7 units
- Week 6: 17-10, +5.2 units
- Week 7: 20-12, +5.9 units
- Week 8: 22-13, +8.0 units
- Week 9: 16-13, +1.3 units
- Week 10: 20-15, +3.0 units
- Week 11: 23-16, +4.9 units
The gambling gods be good, let’s keep this streak going.
Several reminders:
- Bet Tracker: You can find these five props -- and many more -- in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life bet tracker.
- Discord: When I’m posting bets in our tracker, I will sometimes jump into the “Free Picks” channel of our Discord and let everyone know that I’m putting up plays. Join our Discord (again, it’s free).
- Projections: You can find my player projections in the Fantasy Life projections tool! In my experience, these projections are useful for both betting props and making fantasy start/sit decisions.
- Prop Tool: The Fantasy Life prop tool now contains my player projections (as well as our official projections) and compares them to the lines in the prop market to show the bets that we think offer the most opportunity. It’s a great resource.
- Lines Move: Lines can and often do move, and we update our projections regularly, just in case there’s a difference between what you see in the market or on the site versus what you see in this article.
Preamble given, here are five player props I like for Week 12, outside of the Thanksgiving and Black Friday games.
You can tail all five of the below props at bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up below and simply place a first bet of at least $1!
Travis Etienne Under 16.5 Carries (-115, bet365)
- My Projection: 15.1
- Cutoff: 15.5
In Week 8, Etienne’s carry prop was a season-high 17.5, so we’re not far off from his ceiling at the current number -- but his usage dipped dramatically since the Week 9 bye (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Tool).
- Weeks 1-8: 81% snap rate | 83% rush share | 18.75 carries per game
- Weeks 10-11: 64% snap rate | 51% rush share | 11.5 carries per game
Some of this is likely due to game script. In Week 10, the Jaguars lost by 31 points. In Week 11, they won by 20. In neither contest did the Jaguars need Etienne to carry a full workload.
But for his career, Etienne has averaged 14.6 carries per game, and the Texans' defense is much more exploitable via the air than the ground (per RBs Don’t Matter).
- Texans Dropback EPA: 0.065 (No. 22)
- Texans Rush EPA: -0.133 (No. 8)
If the game stays close, we could see more of a pass-heavy attack from the Jaguars. And if the game gets out of hand either way, we could see Etienne lose snaps.
Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 INTs (+140, bet365)
- My Projection: +104.8
- Cutoff: +120
I’ll state the obvious: Mahomes is having a down year. A lot of that is due to his pass catchers. It’s not his fault.
Even so, the results speak for themselves.
This year, Mahomes has nine INTs across seven of 10 games.
I don’t think of the Raiders as being good on defense, but they have 10 INTs in seven of 11 games.
I think Mahomes is likely to avoid an INT this week -- but just barely -- and the +140 odds give us a lot of wiggle room for a QB who doesn’t mind taking chances.
Justin Herbert Over 0.5 INTs (+135, bet365)
- My Projection: -117.4
- Cutoff: +115
Two years ago, Herbert threw 15 INTs in 11 of 17 games. Last year, he had 10 INTs across nine of 18 games (including playoffs). This year, he has five INTs in 10 games.
In general, it’s about a coin flip each game for Herbert to throw an INT -- just based on his career baseline.
Oct 1, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) drops back to pass against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
But in this game, we’re getting +135, which has an implied probability of 42.6% (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator). That’s simply too low, especially against the Ravens, whose defense is No. 4 in dropback EPA (-0.136) and success rate (41.0%).
The Ravens have captured 10 INTs in seven of 11 games.
I don’t think of Herbert as a reckless QB, but he’s willing to take risks, and he actually has worse accuracy numbers this year than Josh Allen, who leads the league with 12 INTs.
- Justin Herbert: 51 bad throws | 14.6% bad throw rate
- Josh Allen: 48 bad throws | 13.2% bad throw rate
As you can see with my projection, I think it’s likelier than not that we see an INT from Herbert, so I love getting this prop at plus odds.
Keaton Mitchell Under 43.5 Rushing Yards (-110, bet365)
- My Projection: 32.6
- Cutoff: 37.5
Last week I successfully bet the under on Mitchell’s yardage prop (36.5) -- and now the number is even higher this week.
I’ve said it before, and I’m sure I’ll say it again: I’m a simple man.
If you give me the opportunity to bet against something that doesn’t regularly happen, I’ll probably do it.
Mitchell has played more than a bit role on offense in just three NFL games. He’s an explosive but inconsistent undrafted rookie. He’s not the lead back on his team, and he’s unlikely to see more than 10 carries at the absolute most.
All of that makes him unlikely to go over 43.5.
Look at this pattern, and tell me which number is the outlier: 138, 34, 33. The sample is small, but it’s not meaningless.
Mitchell is a talented player who has a high upside ceiling -- but his median floor is low.
If you like Mitchell, that’s fine: Bet the over on him in the alternate prop market, because if he goes over 43.5, he might clear this number by 20-plus yards.
But in terms of what’s likeliest to happen, the under is the percentage play.
Joshua Dobbs Under 37.5 Rushing Yards (-110, bet365)
- My Projection: 23.8
- Cutoff: 29.5
I will say upfront that there’s a real chance I’m too low on Dobbs as a runner this week. Our official projections, which are managed by the sharp Dwain McFarland, have Dobbs at 34.1 yards rushing, and I believe that number is the most bullish I’ve seen across the industry.
But even then -- that’s short of Dobbs’ rushing prop.
This year, Dobbs has averaged 35.4 rushing yards per game, and with the Vikings, that number has jumped up to 43.7.
So it’s not as if his prop is out of line with what we’ve seen.
But what we’ve seen -- in my opinion -- is a QB literally running hot, and I expect that at some point we’ll see the cooldown of natural regression.
Why not now?
At 37.5, Dobbs has never had a larger yardage prop, so this is a sell-high spot within the cycle of the market, and the Bears have been adept at containing mobile QBs this year. On average, they’ve allowed 14.5 rushing yards per game to QBs, and no passer has had more than 28 yards on the ground -- and that’s despite facing Jordan Love (12), Patrick Mahomes (28), Russell Wilson (13), Sam Howell (19), and Bryce Young (18).
I think a big cause for Dobbs’ potential regression will be a decline in scramble rate. With the Cardinals, he didn’t scramble much. With the Vikings, he has
- With Cardinals (Weeks 1-8): 18% designed rate | 4% scramble rate
- With Vikings (Weeks 9-11): 9% designed rate | 12% scramble rate
With the Vikings, he has been used much less as a designed rusher -- and I expect that to stay steady. And I imagine that his scrambling rate will also drop, because his 12% mark is downright Lamar Jackson-esque (12% this year), and with all apologies to Dobbs … he’s probably not Lamar.
