The hot streak has cooled a little, but last week gave me my seventh consecutive session of prop profitability.

  • Week 5: 8-5, +2.7 units
  • Week 6: 17-10, +5.2 units
  • Week 7: 20-12, +5.9 units
  • Week 8: 22-13, +8.0 units
  • Week 9: 16-13, +1.3 units
  • Week 10: 20-15, +3.0 units
  • Week 11: 23-16, +4.9 units

The gambling gods be good, let’s keep this streak going.

Several reminders:

  • Bet Tracker: You can find these five props -- and many more -- in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life bet tracker.
  • Discord: When I’m posting bets in our tracker, I will sometimes jump into the “Free Picks” channel of our Discord and let everyone know that I’m putting up plays. Join our Discord (again, it’s free).
  • Projections: You can find my player projections in the Fantasy Life projections tool! In my experience, these projections are useful for both betting props and making fantasy start/sit decisions.
  • Prop Tool: The Fantasy Life prop tool now contains my player projections (as well as our official projections) and compares them to the lines in the prop market to show the bets that we think offer the most opportunity. It’s a great resource.
  • Lines Move: Lines can and often do move, and we update our projections regularly, just in case there’s a difference between what you see in the market or on the site versus what you see in this article.

Preamble given, here are five player props I like for Week 12, outside of the Thanksgiving and Black Friday games.

You can tail all five of the below props at bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up below and simply place a first bet of at least $1!

Travis Etienne Under 16.5 Carries (-115, bet365)

  • My Projection: 15.1
  • Cutoff: 15.5

In Week 8, Etienne’s carry prop was a season-high 17.5, so we’re not far off from his ceiling at the current number -- but his usage dipped dramatically since the Week 9 bye (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Tool).

  • Weeks 1-8: 81% snap rate | 83% rush share | 18.75 carries per game
  • Weeks 10-11: 64% snap rate | 51% rush share | 11.5 carries per game

Some of this is likely due to game script. In Week 10, the Jaguars lost by 31 points. In Week 11, they won by 20. In neither contest did the Jaguars need Etienne to carry a full workload.

But for his career, Etienne has averaged 14.6 carries per game, and the Texans' defense is much more exploitable via the air than the ground (per RBs Don’t Matter).

  • Texans Dropback EPA: 0.065 (No. 22)
  • Texans Rush EPA: -0.133 (No. 8)

If the game stays close, we could see more of a pass-heavy attack from the Jaguars. And if the game gets out of hand either way, we could see Etienne lose snaps.

Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 INTs (+140, bet365)

  • My Projection: +104.8
  • Cutoff: +120

I’ll state the obvious: Mahomes is having a down year. A lot of that is due to his pass catchers. It’s not his fault.

Even so, the results speak for themselves.

This year, Mahomes has nine INTs across seven of 10 games.

I don’t think of the Raiders as being good on defense, but they have 10 INTs in seven of 11 games.

I think Mahomes is likely to avoid an INT this week -- but just barely -- and the +140 odds give us a lot of wiggle room for a QB who doesn’t mind taking chances.

Justin Herbert Over 0.5 INTs (+135, bet365)

  • My Projection: -117.4
  • Cutoff: +115

Two years ago, Herbert threw 15 INTs in 11 of 17 games. Last year, he had 10 INTs across nine of 18 games (including playoffs). This year, he has five INTs in 10 games.

In general, it’s about a coin flip each game for Herbert to throw an INT -- just based on his career baseline.