NBA Bets Today - Top Picks for Wednesday's NBA Playoff Games
We finally had a few upsets on Tuesday, with two road teams evening up their series at one game apiece.
The Mavericks managed to beat the Clippers despite Kawhi Leonard’s return to the lineup, while the Pacers bounced back with a win over the Bucks. The Suns were the only road team that couldn’t get the job done, losing by double figures to the Timberwolves once again.
Wednesday’s slate features just two contests, and both No. 1 seeds will be in action. The Celtics will take the floor as massive favorites vs. the Heat, while the Thunder will host the Pelicans in Oklahoma City.
In addition to the home team domination, unders have been the big storyline this postseason.
The under is now 11-3 through the first 14 games, and including the play-in tournament, the under has gone 15-5.
First-half unders have been particularly strong, going 75-38-3 in the first round and play-in tournament since 2021.
Can either underdog manage to keep things close? Let’s dive into my NBA best bets for Wednesday’s slate.
NBA Bets Today – Top Picks for Wednesday's NBA Playoff Games
Heat-Celtics Under 204.0 (-108; FanDuel)
I’m not a huge believer in trends for basketball purposes. Unless you realize a trend really early, it’s likely already being priced into the line.
That said, the sharps seem to like the under in both of Wednesday’s contests. Both figures have come down a few points since opening, and there are plenty of reasons to like the under in Boston.
For starters, Game 1 of this series was played at a snail’s pace. This series currently ranks dead last in pace for the postseason, which is not a huge surprise with Miami involved. They were 29th in pace during the regular season, and without Jimmy Butler, they’re going to be forced to play even slower. The Celtics have one of the best defenses in basketball – they were second in defensive efficiency during the regular season – so the Heat are going to have to spend a lot of time searching for offense without their best player.
Miami’s offense is also going to struggle to score without Butler. They managed just 94 points in Game 1, and that somehow still undersells their futility. They scored 35 of those points in the final frame after the game was already well in the balance. During the first three quarters, they managed just 59 points against the Celtics’ stout defense.
Boston can score the ball at will, but they also seem due for a bit of regression. They posted an Offensive Rating of 126.7 in Game 1, and they posted a .610 effective field goal percentage. Both numbers were above their regular season averages, so I’m not expecting another 114 points from them in Game 2. If the Celtics can’t carry the scoring in this series, these games are going to struggle to crack 200 points.
Jonas Valanciunas Over 11.5 rebounds (-102; DraftKings)
The Pelicans managed to keep things competitive in Game 1 of this series, but they ultimately suffered a two-point loss. They did that despite Zion Williamson being out of the lineup and Brandon Ingram shooting just 5-17 from the field.
How did they do it? They dominated the Thunder on the glass.
Valanciunas was particularly dominant, racking up 20 total boards in less than 30 minutes. He had nine offensive rebounds, which was one more than the Thunder’s entire roster.
Valanciunas gobbling up boards is the biggest edge that the Pelicans have in this series. He’s a monster on the glass – he was sixth in the league in rebound rate – and the Thunder were just 28th in team rebound rate during the regular season. Valanciunas might not get nine offensive rebounds again, but the Thunder are going to struggle to keep him off the glass all series.
For a team that is desperate for scoring, throwing the ball near the rim and letting Valanciunas come down with it might be their best offense. I’m expecting more of the same in Game 2.
More Bets for Wednesday's NBA Playoff Games
Payton Pritchard Over 2.5 assists (-166)
Pritchard is a player I’m interested in targeting in this series. He has a decent role off the bench, and if the games turn into blowouts, he has the potential to earn a few additional minutes.
He racked up five dimes in Game 1 of this series, and he pretty consistently eclipsed this mark with 20+ minutes during the regular season. The Paydirt DFS simulations have Pritchard going over 2.5 at a greater than 80% clip.
Bam Adebayo Under 0.5 3-pointers (-155)
Is this a particularly fun prop? Not really. But I think it offers more than enough expected value to bet.
Adebayo knocked down a 3-pointer in just 11 of his 71 regular season contests (15.5%), and he was 0-2 from 3-point range in Game 1 vs. the Celtics. Overall, he was nearly 85% to not make a 3-pointer in 2023-24, yet his -155 odds translate to an implied probability of just 60.78%. That’s a pretty large discrepancy.
2024 NBA Playoffs Bets Record
- Yesterday: 2-3 (-0.65 units)
Playoffs: 5-5 (-0.24 units)
