NFL Sharp Report. Identifying Week 1 Line Movement.
One of the best things about sports betting is that you don’t have to go it alone.
There are tons of resources available to help you make more informed decisions, including our suite of Betting Tools at FantasyLife.
One of my favorite things to look at is the betting percentage splits.
You can see the breakdown of the number of tickets and money that comes in on each side and the total, indicating where the sharp money is landing.
For example, if a team gets 50% of the spread bets but 80% of the dollars, the large wagers – which tend to come from professional bettors – are siding with them.
The public money typically comes in smaller increments, so the other side can have the same number of tickets at a significantly lower handle.
Essentially, this allows us to take a peak at the smart kid’s homework before the start of class.
Sharp bettors are respected for a reason: they win more than they lose. It would be foolish not to take their opinions into account.
Let’s dive into five games the pros are taking a stand on for NFL Week 1.
Bengals at Browns
- Opening Line: Bengals -2.5
- Current Line: Bengals -1.5
The AFC North is expected to be a highly competitive division this season, with all four teams starting the year as playoff hopefuls. That said, the Bengals are still the prohibitive favorites.
They’ve been one of the best teams in football over the past two seasons, making it to one Super Bowl and two AFC Championships.
The Bengals have also been excellent at covering the spread. They’re 27-13 against the spread (including the playoffs), making them the most profitable team in football over that time frame.
That said, the sharps seem to love the Browns in this spot. They’ve racked up 78% of the dollars in this matchup on just 46% of the tickets, driving the number down from 2.5 to 1.5.
The Browns were underwhelming last year, but they have all the ingredients needed for a good football team.
DeShaun Watson was rusty in his return to action in 2022, but he’s previously been one of the best quarterbacks in football. In his final season with the Texans, he led the league in passing yards and yards per attempt while racking up 33 touchdown passes and just seven interceptions.
The Browns also fit a couple of exciting trends for Week 1.
Historically, non-playoff teams from the previous season have fared incredibly well against postseason squads to start the year. They’re 73-52-1 dating back to the 2005 season, including 11-0 over the past two-plus years. The Lions picked up a win in that scenario to kick off the 2023 season.
Underdogs also tend to fare well in divisional matchups in Week 1, posting a mark of 61-39-1 ATS since 2005. Home divisional dogs, in particular, are 24-13.
Add in the fact that Joe Burrow might not be at 100%, and it’s easy to see why the pros like the Browns in this matchup.
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Jaguars at Colts
- Opening Line: Jaguars -3.5
- Current Line: Jaguars -5.0
The Colts are another squad that fits both of the previously mentioned trends. They’re home underdogs in a divisional matchup and will also take on a playoff squad from the previous year.
Still, it’s hard for most people to get quite as excited about Indianapolis. They’re starting a rookie quarterback in Anthony Richardson, and they’ll be without their top offensive player in Jonathan Taylor.
The absence of Taylor has had a significant impact on the spread, driving the Colts from 3.5-point underdogs to five-point underdogs across most of the industry. I think that’s ultimately where the sharps are seeing some value.
Aug 24, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) in action against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Even for a running back as good as Taylor, it’s hard to imagine him having that much of an impact on the spread.
No position in the NFL is as easily replaceable as running back. Tons of guys are hanging around on the bottom of NFL rosters, practice squads, or even the street that can fill in at that position when needed.
The Colts have received just 36% of the spread bets in this matchup, but they’ve received 50% of the dollars. That’s a pretty sizable discrepancy.
Richardson is also the type of rookie quarterback who could impress right out of the gates. He’s not going to be asked to do a ton of complex things offensively. He’s simply going to have to use his unrivaled athleticism.
Richardson may be the greatest athlete to ever suit up at quarterback in the NFL, so defenses will not enjoy facing him.
His play style should also keep the clock moving, decreasing the number of possessions in this contest. That tends to bode well for the underdog, and it’s also why the under has been another popular sharp target in this matchup.
Texans at Ravens
- Opening Line: Ravens -9.5
- Current Line: Ravens -10.0
The Texans will also be starting a rookie at quarterback in CJ Stroud, and rookie QBs tend to start very slowly.
They’re just 10-29 straight up through the first four weeks over the past five seasons, so there should be some growing pains in Houston.
However, the Texans don’t need to win this game; they just need to cover.
The sharps don’t seem to be deterred by the fact that Richardson is a rookie, and they’re not overly concerned about Stroud, either. The Texans have racked up 56% of the spread dollars on just 41% of the bets.
Part of what makes the Texans an appealing wager is that they’re getting this many points this early in the season. Week 1 is the part of the season where we have the least information.
We can make educated guesses based on projections and track records, but we have zero tangible on-field results to work with. That means the lines in Week 1 are arguably the dullest they’ll be all year.
Unsurprisingly, significant underdogs tend to find success with so much uncertainty. Teams getting at least 6.5 points in Week 1 are 47-28 ATS since the start of the 2005 season.
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Panthers at Falcons
- Opening Total: 43.5
- Current Total: 39.5
The total in this game has plummeted after opening at 43.5. It’s down four full points, making it the second-lowest total of the week. Only the game between the Cardinals and Commanders is implied for less scoring.
Neither of these offenses are expected to set the world on fire, but how they play is arguably more important.
Both teams leaned heavily on their rushing attacks last season, which resulted in minimal possessions. The Panthers averaged the fewest plays per game, while the Falcons averaged the sixth-fewest.
Aug 18, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) pulls down a catch during pregame warmups before their game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
While the Panthers underwent regime change this offseason, the Falcons are veering even heavier into the run game this season.
They just used the No. 8 overall pick on Bijan Robinson, so the team that ranked 31st in Pass Rate Over Expectation in 2022 could be even more run-heavy in 2023.
Add in some expected rookie struggles for Bryce Young, and points should be at a premium in this matchup. The under has accounted for 56% of the bets and 67% of the dollars, and it will likely continue to decrease as we approach kickoff.
Bills at Jets
- Opening Total: 48.0
- Current Total: 45.5
The final game of Week 1 might be the most anticipated.
The Bills will take on the Jets on Monday Night Football, and both teams enter the year with Super Bowl aspirations.
The Bills have been unable to get over the hump in the past few years, but they remain one of the most talented teams in football. The Jets already boasted one of the best defenses in the league and brought in a no-doubt first-ballot future Hall-of-Famer to play quarterback.
Sprinkle some Hard Knocks mania on top, and this game feels almost like a prizefight.
While Josh Allen vs. Aaron Rodgers may be the names on the marquee, the defenses are the real story here.
The Jets were dominant at times in 2022 despite getting virtually no help from the offense. That was particularly true in their two matchups vs. the Bills. They limited Allen like no other defense in football, holding him to 4.62 adjusted yards per attempt as a passer.
The Bills averaged just 18.5 points in those contests, well below their weekly average of 27.7.
Meanwhile, the Jets still have some question marks on offense
Rodgers will go down as one of the best quarterbacks in history, but is he still that guy? He certainly didn’t look like it last year in Green Bay, turning in one of his worst seasons as a professional.
Part of that can be attributed to a subpar supporting cast, but it would not be shocking if he’s lost some zip on his fastball at 40 years old.
Ultimately, the sharps expect the defenses to reign supreme in this matchup. The under has received 56% of the tickets in this matchup but has racked up 87% of the dollars.
