Week 11 Sunday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Vikings @ Broncos
Week 11 features some marquee primetime matchups, but on the surface, Sunday Night Football isn’t one of them. The Vikings will travel to Denver to take on the Broncos in a battle between fringe playoff contenders.
That said, both of these teams are trending in the right direction. The Vikings have won six of their past seven games, while the Broncos have won three straight. That includes back-to-back wins over the Chiefs and Bills, who are two of the best teams in the AFC.
Which team will keep their hot streak rolling? Let’s dive into some of the best bets for Sunday Night Football.
Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos:
- Spread: Broncos -2.5 (-115; BetMGM)
- Total: 42.5
- Moneylines: Vikings +115/Broncos -140
What has turned around for these two squads in recent weeks?
For the Vikings, the biggest change is that they’ve started to get a bit luckier. They were easily the unluckiest team in football through their first three contests, resulting in three one-possession losses. Those were the types of games that the Vikings thrived in last season, so the chickens came home to roost from a variance perspective.
The Vikings were always due for some regression following last year’s historic campaign, but they’re still not a bad team. They were nowhere near as good as their 13-4 record suggested, but they didn’t deserve to be 0-3, either.
Since then, things have normalized a bit. They’re 6-4 with an expected record of 5.6-4.4, and they’re in the top 12 in both scoring and yardage differential. They’re 11th in EPA/play offensively and ninth on defense, so they’ve been productive on both sides of the ball.
Of course, most of that production came with Kirk Cousins at quarterback. He was lost to a season-ending injury a few weeks ago, and Josh Dobbs is now the man under center.
Dobbs has looked good in his first two outings, averaging 7.1 adjusted yards per attempt despite literally not knowing his teammates' names in his first contest. Still, he’s not Cousins. He represents a clear downgrade, even if he has become a social media sensation.
With Dobbs at quarterback, the Vikings check in at No. 23 in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings, making them -1.62 points below average.
On the other side, Denver’s big change came on defense. They started the year as one of the worst teams in the league on that side of the ball, culminating in a 70-point, 726-yard debacle vs. the Dolphins. However, they’re up to sixth in EPA/play defensively during their three-game winning streak. They held the Chiefs to 274 yards in Week 8 and the Bills to 369 yards in Week 10, and they forced nine turnovers in the process.
If the Broncos can continue to play that well on defense, their offense is good enough to win games. They’re 17th in EPA/play for the year, and they’re getting much better production out of Russell Wilson in his second season in Denver. He’s averaged 7.6 adjusted yards per attempt with 18 touchdown passes and four interceptions, and his 15th at the position in Pro Football Focus grade. All of those represent significant increases from his marks last season.
Best Bet: Under 42.5 (-108; DraftKings)
The seemingly neverending string of primetime unders was finally snapped on Thursday. The Bengals and Ravens combined for 54 points, despite Joe Burrow leaving the game early with an injury.
Could that be a sign of things to come?
Possibly, but I’m going back to the under well on Sunday night. Even with the over on Thursday, primetime unders are still an insane 25-8 for the season and 150-92-3 since 2019-20.
Both of these squads have also been under teams for most of the season. The Vikings are 7-3 to the under this season, while the Broncos are 5-4.
The Broncos’ improved defense has helped of late, but so has their play style. They’ve had a dropback over expected (DBOE) of -2.0% or lower in four straight games, including three games above -7.0%. They’ve also averaged -0.22 plays per minute over expected (PPMOE) for the year, so they’re playing slow in addition to being run-heavy.
It also seems unlikely that the Vikings will get back Justin Jefferson this week. He’s currently questionable, but ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler said on SportsCenter that he’s “a long shot” to suit up. That means the Vikings will likely be without their top offensive weapon for one more week.
There has been a smidge of sharp action on the over and on the Broncos -2.5, but I’m sticking to my guns with a primetime under. They’re a big part of the reason why I’m 11-1 on total bets in the Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.
You can tail the under on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account and place a $5 bet below!
Russell Wilson Over 4.5 rush attempts (-150; DraftKings)
- Bet To: Over 4.5 (-175)
- Fantasy Life Projection: 5.0
Wilson has turned back the clocks in recent weeks. He may not be quite as nimble as he was in his youth, but he’s used his legs far more often over the past few games. He’s had a designed run rate of at least nine percent in back-to-back games, and he’s had a scramble rate of at least 10% in four of his past five.