In sports betting, not all bets and dollars are created equally.
In general, bets can be classified into two separate categories: sharp money and square money. Sharp money—also known as “smart money”—comes from respected bettors who the sportsbooks trust to be on the right side more often than not. Square money comes from everyone else.
Knowing the difference between sharp and square is very important in all aspects of sports betting, but it’s a crucial factor in one particular concept known as reverse line movement. Reverse line movement—or RLM for short—occurs when a line moves in the opposite direction of where most of the bets are landing.
Before we can fully understand line movement, we need to understand why lines move in the first place.
What is line movement?
Line movement is ultimately pretty self-explanatory. The oddsmakers will all release an opening line for major sporting events. This can occur roughly the week before any given football game—sometimes even longer—and the night before in most other sports. In the MLB, lines might not be set until that day if the starting pitchers have yet to be announced.
Once those opening figures are set, the lines are not stagnant. They will fluctuate right up until game time, with a number of factors ultimately playing a part. That can include injuries, the weather, the officials, and the schedule, just to name a few.
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) catches pass and turns in for a touchdown in the first quarter of the NFL divisional playoff football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Buffalo Bills, Sunday, Jan. 22, 2023, at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. The Bengals led 17-7 at halftime. Cincinnati Bengals At Buffalo Bills Afc Divisional Jan 22 380
Line movement occurs in both spread-betting sports like the NFL, NBA, and college football, as well as in moneyline sports like the NHL and MLB.
However, the biggest reason for line movement is the betting activity. One myth about the linemakers is that they want the action to be split evenly between two teams in every sporting event. That may be true in certain situations, but the truth is that sportsbooks want to win money.
With that in mind, they take stands on certain games more than you might realize. They’re fully comfortable taking the majority of the action on one team if they feel that the public is on the “wrong side.”
The sportsbooks are much more likely to move the lines based on sharp betting. If the pros are telling them that the line on a game is incorrect—which they do through large bets—it makes the sportsbooks adjust their number.
This is yet another reason to shop around for lines across various sportsbooks and take advantage of welcome offers. BetMGM offers one of the most generous First Bet Offers around, as you can get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win by signing up below!
What is reverse line movement?
Reverse line movement typically occurs when the sharps and squares are on different sides of the same game. This happens very frequently, with the public gravitating toward favorites and trendy underdogs and the sharps leaning in the opposite direction.
This split is reflected in the public betting percentages. A good betting tracker will generally show you two different numbers: the bet percentage and the dollar percentage. The bet percentage refers to the total number of bets being placed on a specific side, while the dollar percentage reflects the total volume or handle on that team.
Those numbers can often be split way more heavily than you might realize. While casual bettors are placing lots of small wagers, sharp bettors are typically getting down for a far greater amount of money. That can result in one team having the edge in handle while still having the minority of the tickets.
Let’s look at an example. The NBA is offering up a four-game playoff slate on Wednesday, Apr. 26, and we can track all the betting percentages at DraftKings Sportsbook through the VSiN free tool:
There are a few spots that jump off the page as potential “sharps vs. squares” showdowns. The Bucks have received 51% of the handle for their matchup vs. the Heat on just 20% of the bets, representing a discrepancy of 31%. The Grizzlies have also received 65% of the dollars on just 35% of the bets, good for a 30% gap.
In the case of the Bucks, we are seeing some signs of reverse line movement. Even though a whopping 80% of the tickets have sided with the Heat—making them the most popular bet on the entire slate—the Bucks have actually become larger favorites since opening (via The Action Network):