What Is Reverse Line Movement?
In sports betting, not all bets and dollars are created equally.
In general, bets can be classified into two separate categories: sharp money and square money. Sharp money—also known as “smart money”—comes from respected bettors who the sportsbooks trust to be on the right side more often than not. Square money comes from everyone else.
Knowing the difference between sharp and square is very important in all aspects of sports betting, but it’s a crucial factor in one particular concept known as reverse line movement. Reverse line movement—or RLM for short—occurs when a line moves in the opposite direction of where most of the bets are landing.
Before we can fully understand line movement, we need to understand why lines move in the first place.
What is line movement?
Line movement is ultimately pretty self-explanatory. The oddsmakers will all release an opening line for major sporting events. This can occur roughly the week before any given football game—sometimes even longer—and the night before in most other sports. In the MLB, lines might not be set until that day if the starting pitchers have yet to be announced.
Once those opening figures are set, the lines are not stagnant. They will fluctuate right up until game time, with a number of factors ultimately playing a part. That can include injuries, the weather, the officials, and the schedule, just to name a few.
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) catches pass and turns in for a touchdown in the first quarter of the NFL divisional playoff football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Buffalo Bills, Sunday, Jan. 22, 2023, at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. The Bengals led 17-7 at halftime. Cincinnati Bengals At Buffalo Bills Afc Divisional Jan 22 380
Line movement occurs in both spread-betting sports like the NFL, NBA, and college football, as well as in moneyline sports like the NHL and MLB.
However, the biggest reason for line movement is the betting activity. One myth about the linemakers is that they want the action to be split evenly between two teams in every sporting event. That may be true in certain situations, but the truth is that sportsbooks want to win money.
With that in mind, they take stands on certain games more than you might realize. They’re fully comfortable taking the majority of the action on one team if they feel that the public is on the “wrong side.”
The sportsbooks are much more likely to move the lines based on sharp betting. If the pros are telling them that the line on a game is incorrect—which they do through large bets—it makes the sportsbooks adjust their number.
This is yet another reason to shop around for lines across various sportsbooks and take advantage of welcome offers. BetMGM offers one of the most generous First Bet Offers around, as you can get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win by signing up below!
What is reverse line movement?
Reverse line movement typically occurs when the sharps and squares are on different sides of the same game. This happens very frequently, with the public gravitating toward favorites and trendy underdogs and the sharps leaning in the opposite direction.
This split is reflected in the public betting percentages. A good betting tracker will generally show you two different numbers: the bet percentage and the dollar percentage. The bet percentage refers to the total number of bets being placed on a specific side, while the dollar percentage reflects the total volume or handle on that team.
Those numbers can often be split way more heavily than you might realize. While casual bettors are placing lots of small wagers, sharp bettors are typically getting down for a far greater amount of money. That can result in one team having the edge in handle while still having the minority of the tickets.
Let’s look at an example. The NBA is offering up a four-game playoff slate on Wednesday, Apr. 26, and we can track all the betting percentages at DraftKings Sportsbook through the VSiN free tool:
There are a few spots that jump off the page as potential “sharps vs. squares” showdowns. The Bucks have received 51% of the handle for their matchup vs. the Heat on just 20% of the bets, representing a discrepancy of 31%. The Grizzlies have also received 65% of the dollars on just 35% of the bets, good for a 30% gap.
In the case of the Bucks, we are seeing some signs of reverse line movement. Even though a whopping 80% of the tickets have sided with the Heat—making them the most popular bet on the entire slate—the Bucks have actually become larger favorites since opening (via The Action Network):
The point spread fluctuated between 11 and 11.5 points before ultimately settling in at 12.0, likely due to more and more sharp action coming in on the favorite.
Why is reverse line movement important?
Identifying RLM is important because it gives you an insight into what professional bettors think of a given game. That is one of the most important pieces of information you can possibly ascertain.
As much as some of us like to think we’re experts at handicapping games—myself included—there is always someone smarter than you out there.
The people who the books classify as sharps have earned that designation because they have consistently beaten the oddsmakers at their own game. They have proven that they can identify the value on the board and are willing to back it up with big bets.
Think about it this way. If you were back in high school and could get a peek at the valedictorian’s test with no repercussions, you’d do it, right? I certainly would, and I was a pretty darn good student if I do say so myself.
This strategy can be extremely profitable if used correctly.
During the 2022-23 NFL season, there were 92 regular season or postseason contests with a bet dollar vs. bet ticket discrepancy of at least 20%. In those “sharps vs. squares” matchups, the side with more dollars posted a record of 53-34-5 against the spared. That was good for a +15.5% return on investment.
That was a particularly good year for the sharps, but they have unsurprisingly won these battles at a higher clip than the public dating back to 2016-17.
What is the downside of reverse line movement?
On the surface, reverse line movement seems like an incredibly powerful tool, and it is if used properly. However, that’s not quite as simple as you might think.
In sports betting, the margins between a winning and losing ticket are extremely thin. A half point or full point may not sound like much, but it can make a world of difference.
Unfortunately, if we’re waiting to see some reverse line movement before hopping on board, it means that we are not going to be getting the same number as the sharps. Just because they may like a team as a 3.5-point underdog does not mean they feel the same way if that team dips to +3.0 or +2.5.
This concept of simply tailing the sharps—oftentimes at a worse number—is called “chasing the steam.” Blindly chasing steam is a very easy way to get burnt.
In sports betting, getting a positive closing line value (or CLV) should be your goal almost every time you make a wager. Getting the best number doesn’t guarantee that you’re going to win a bet, but if you’re able to do it often enough, it should pay dividends in the long run. By chasing steam, you are almost never going to get any CLV.
Additionally, not all reverse line moves are created equally. The sharps know that they have the power to change betting numbers across the industry, and they will occasionally use this to their advantage.
For example, let’s say that the Chiefs open up as 3.5-point favorites against the Chargers. The sharps may like the Chargers in this matchup but want to get them as four-point underdogs.
In that situation, they may start the week by placing heavy bets on the Chiefs in hopes of getting the number up to 4.0. Once that happens, they’ll come in with their real wagers on the Chargers.
Oct 2, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler (30) runs for a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
This kind of strategy is called a “dummy move.” The sharps are essentially faking their interest in the Chiefs before exposing their true intentions of betting on the Chargers. If you followed their first move and bet on KC, you’re now stuck with a ticket based solely on chasing a dummy move. Once the sharps do attack the Chargers, you could end up with an awful number.
How to utilize reverse line movement
Hopefully, I’ve outlined why just blindly following the sharps can be a losing strategy if you’re not careful. That said, I still believe in the power of reverse line movement. There are two general principles that can increase your chances of winning with RLM:
Trust late moves more than early moves
As we get closer to the start of an event, the line moves are going to be much truer representations of the sharps’ actual feelings. They’re not going to waste their time trying to set up dummy moves when the event is about to happen. At that point, there’s no more time to bluff: it’s time to put all your cards on the table.
Additionally, this is typically when the sharps will have the most information available to them. Injuries have been finalized, the weather is confirmed, and the limits have been raised. The sportsbooks generally allow you to wager more money as they get closer to the start time and feel more confident about their numbers.
Shop for the best price
I think I mention shopping for the best line in virtually every article I write. That’s how important it is to become a successful bettor.
If you see a reverse line move at one sportsbook—particularly a “sharp book”—it’s the perfect opportunity to shop for a better line elsewhere. If the sharps drop a 3.0-point underdog to 2.5 at one location, you might still be able to get the +3.0 at a different location.
This essentially allows you to tail the sharps at the same number, which is the best way to utilize RLM. You’re getting your money down on the same team as the pros, and you’re not sacrificing any closing line value.
As always, having as many online sportsbooks available to you as possible is one of the easiest ways to be a successful sports bettor, especially if you’re also taking advantage of the deposit bonuses and promos.
Summary
Reverse line movement occurs when a betting line moves in the opposite direction of where the majority of the bets are landing. This can happen with both spread bets and moneylines, and it typically occurs when the sharps have a different opinion on a game than the general public.
You can visualize this discrepancy using bet trackers. Most bet trackers will show you the bet and dollar percentages for a given game, which can vary more than you might realize.
When a betting line moves away from the betting tickets and toward the handle, it’s a good indication that the sharps are on a different side than the public. The sportsbooks will almost always move the lines toward the sharps in those scenarios, creating reverse line movement.
Identifying reverse line movement gives you an insight into what the pros are betting, which can be extremely profitable. That said, you still need to try to get the best number as often as possible.
If you’re constantly chasing steam and getting the worst numbers, it’s an easy way to end up on the wrong side of a bet. Remember, just because the sharps like a team at +3.5 doesn’t necessarily mean they like them at +3.0.
The best way to utilize RLM is to react quickly. When the sharps move the number at one book, you can often capitalize by placing the same wager at a different sportsbook before they’ve had the chance to adjust. Ultimately, if you end up on the same side and betting odds as the professional handicappers, it’s a pretty good place to be.
You can start taking advantage of RLM by signing up for BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Sign up below to learn more.
