FanDuel NFL DFS Picks For Browns vs. Steelers Single-Game Slate

The Week 4 schedule kicks off tonight with a Thursday Night Football AFC North showdown that resembles what we had traditionally expected from Thursday Night Football—gross, low-total games between two middling (at best) teams. After getting spoiled for the first few weeks with primetime matchups, let's jump into my FanDuel NFL DFS picks for Browns vs. Steelers.

As a note for those dipping into the FanDuel single-game streets for the first time, they changed their format to match DK last season—a 1.5x multiplier for the MVP slot, with player salaries also costing 1.5x as much if you want to use them in your MVP slot. With a $60,000 salary to fill out six lineup spots, you're allocated an average of $10,000 per lineup slot, something to be mindful of when selecting your MVP and FLEX positions.

Browns vs. Steelers FanDuel NFL DFS Single-Game Picks For TNF

FanDuel MVP Picks For CLE vs. PIT Single-Game Slate

Deshaun Watson (QB, CLE) - $17,700: Watson has actually looked serviceable over his last two games this season, recording 2 touchdown passes without an interception while averaging 20 points per game. While he ranks outside of the top 20 quarterbacks for the week as a whole, he's only competing with Aaron Rodgers positionally on this slate, and it's hard to say that he doesn't have the higher floor/ceiling combination. The Steelers traded Joey Porter last night, and his absence has been a massive hit for their secondary, as they're giving up the fifth-highest fantasy boost to QBs (+1.9). In a low-total game, the floor of quarterbacks carries even more importance on a single-game slate, and Watson feels like the safer play here. That said, he is my second-favorite MVP on the slate.

Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT) - $17,100: If playing 3 lineups, Warren will be my MVP in 2 of the 3, and there is a chance it becomes 3 of 3 when I finish building before kickoff, as he has the highest offensive ceiling on the slate and his floor in his current role may be more stable than either of the QBs, too. With Rico Dowdle out in Week 3, Warren dominated. He saw a 91% snap share, commanded 85% of the rush attempts, ran 70% of the routes, and posted a 91 Utilization Score. His 19.1 half-PPR points led to an RB8 finish on the week, and the 3-point 100-yard bonus on FanDuel saw him end with 22.1 points. He's not just getting all of the high-value touches; he's getting just about all of the total touches. As the third-highest-priced player on the slate, we're getting a bit of a discount on Warren in the MVP spot, making him by far and away the best click.

FLEX Picks For CLE vs. PIT Single-Game Slate On FanDuel

Aaron Rodgers (QB, PIT) - $12,600: It's really difficult to justify Rodgers in the MVP spot given his massive price tag, and he likely won't even be included as a FLEX pick in all three of my lineups. We saw some upside in Week 3—23.7 fantasy points on the back of 292 passing yards and 3 TDs—but the 11.1-yard aDOT felt like a bit of an outlier, as did the 8.6 yards per attempt. We saw 5.5 and 4.8 yards per attempt in Weeks 1 and 2, far more in line with the current iteration of Rodgers we've gotten (6.5 YPA, 6.4-yard aDOT last season). The Browns have also been one of the stingier defenses in the league against QBs to open the year, posting the 7th-lowest fantasy boost to the position (-2.8). This offense is going to funnel through Warren, and while a QB on a single-game slate always has merit, the lack of pure value makes Rodgers' price tag an easier one to fade on this specific slate, even if he comes with a floor higher than most players on it.

KC Concepcion (WR, CLE) - $5,800: Playing Concepcion on last Sunday's slate was #notfun. Seeing 9 targets on the stat sheet was nice, but seeing that only 29% were deemed catchable was frustrating. That said, he turned in his highest route rate of the season (95%) as he's completely taken over the WR2 role for this offense. His 4.5-yard aDOT on the season shows that he'll have to create after the catch to post a big outing, but two straight games with a 21%+ target share show that he's not an afterthought in the offense. He's significantly cheaper than any other full-time pass catcher on this slate, making him a relatively easy click in small field contests.

Chris Boswell (K, PIT) - $6,800, Andre Szmyt (K, CLE) - $6,200: Like clockwork, I'm targeting kickers in this game. Szmyt checks in with home-field advantage, while Boswell has the track record of being an effective kicker. Both are viable, with a slight lean to Szmyt with the cheaper price tag.

Others I will be mixing into my FLEX pool: DK Metcalf (WR, PIT, $10,800), Denzel Boston (WR, CLE, $8,200), Steelers DST ($7,000), Browns DST ($6,400), Raheim Sanders (RB, CLE, $4,800)

Players I will be underweight on/fade: Quinshon Judkins (RB, CLE, $10,200), Roman Wilson (WR, PIT, $8,400), Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, PIT, $7,600)