Underdog Pick 'Em For Week 4: Chuba Hubbard Hits Paydirt

The picks cashed in a big way in Week 3 as I hit all three of my core Underdog picks and one of my two longshots. Combining the three core picks gave a 3.84x payout and then adding in Brock Bowers for more than 79.5 receiving yards pushed the payout up to 12.5x, which puts us solidly in the green for this young season.

The only pick that didn’t hit last week was the higher on Emmett Johnson’s rushing yards. The rookie continues to look good, but the Dolphins kept the game close enough that Kansas City didn’t get the chance feed him late in the game like I expected.

Now it’s on to Week 4, let’s keep the good times rolling. If you’re new to this article, every week I will be bringing you my favorite picks on Underdog. I will start by highlighting three of the best picks for the week based on the line vs. fantasy football projections. I will also give you a couple of my favorite longshot selections for the week that you can include to juice your pick 'em payouts.

One quick thing to note before diving in is that I live in an Underdog Champions state, which means that my payouts may look slightly different than they would for someone who lives in a standard pick 'em state, but the differences should be minimal.

Week 4 Underdog Pick ‘em Selections

Chuba Hubbard higher than 0.5 rushing/receiving TDs

In the first full game without Jonathon Brooks, the Panthers turned right back to Chuba Hubbard as their workhorse. Hubbard handled 83% of the rush attempts and had 23 touches in the game. That yielded a Utilization Score of 85, seventh best among all RBs.

The Panthers now play host to the Lions in a game that has shootout potential on Sunday Night Football. The Lions are giving up the most points per game and the second most yards per game, and both offenses are among the most fast paced in the NFL. We should see a lot of plays in this game and neither defense has been able to stop their opponents so far this season. If both teams can move the ball up and down the field there will be plenty of scoring opportunities.

I like most of the highers in this game environment, but I am making a Hubbard TD part of my core selection because of how strong his role is and the better payout versus a Gibbs TD.

Patrick Mahomes higher than 236.5 passing yards

It took all of one week for Patrick Mahomes to return to his old self. After a mediocre performance against the Broncos in Week 1, Mahomes then dropped 382 passing yards on the Colts and then 246 yards on just 24 pass attempts against the Dolphins.

In Week 4, the Chiefs go on the road to face the 3-0 Las Vegas Raiders. This is an important game for the division and the Raiders are a great opponent if you have Chiefs players on your fantasy team. The Raiders offense looks more than competent, especially with Brock Bowers now back. The game total is 47.5 points so the oddsmakers agree there should be solid offensive production in this game.

Our fantasy football projections have Mahomes for 249 passing yards this week, which suggests we have a decent edge on this line.

Parker Washington higher than 4.5 receptions

In case you missed the memo, Parker Washington is the Jaguars’ best WR. He leads the team in targets, receptions and receiving yards, and it isn’t particularly close.

Washington is the WR12 by Utilization Score and the Fantasy Life projections have him for 8.6 targets and 5.6 receptions in Week 4. In a game that should be competitive and high-scoring, I really like this line as a core pick ‘em play.

In all honesty, I am comfortable going with a higher line than 4.5 receptions to help juice the payout, but these core picks are intended to be high-conviction plays so I am keeping it at this number to give us the best chance of cashing again this week.

Week 4 Underdog Pick 'em Longshots

Derrick Henry higher than 1.5 rushing/receiving TDs

We’re going back to the Derrick Henry TD well in Week 4. The Ravens are 11.5-point favorites against the Titans in Week 4. That is an ideal game script for King Henry to see a huge workload against his former team. The revenge game narrative is generally overblown, but in a game that Baltimore should control from start to finish any added motivation to get Henry in the end zone is welcome.

The Titans defense is middle of the pack in most efficiency metrics, but the problem is their offense is among the worst in the NFL and is likely to struggle to move the ball consistently against Baltimore. Whether they turn the ball over or just go three and out, the Ravens should start several drives in favorable field position, which improves their odds of getting down near the goal line. Once they are down there, they have been very willing to feed their star RB.

Henry leads the NFL with 9 rush attempts inside the 5-yard line, and no other player has more than 5 such attempts. Henry has converted 5 of those 9 attempts into TDs and that trend should continue this week.

Of course, Henry has also been known to rip off long TD runs, which gives us another out to hitting this longshot.