Underdog Pick'em Plays. Top Picks for Week 11.
Welcome back to the weekly Underdog Pick’em Plays article on Fantasy Life.
If you’re new, every week I try to put together a winning five-way Pick'em ticket using Underdog’s selection of Higher/Lower offerings. I also include some extra suggestions at the end and a list of “play to levels” and our Fantasy Life projections.
Week 10 was marked by some highs and lows. The article only managed a 3 out of 5 day as the Titans passing attack got gobbled up by the Tampa Buccaneers pass rush.
However, if you follow the Underdog Pick’em Tracker on Fantasy Life (and you should) then you saw I did manage to ship three different tickets last week (a 2-way, 3-way and 5-way).
I’ll be posting all my plays there again this week, including the one from this article, which you can read right now by continuing to scroll down the page…
As a reminder, you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up for Underdog Fantasy with promo code LIFE below:
Tommy DeVito HIGHER than 162.5 passing yards
- Play to: 164.5 HIGHER
- Fantasy Life Projection: 172.6 passing yards
I didn’t include Tommy DeVito in the picks for this column last week but his rushing prop was instrumental in me shipping a few other tickets on Underdog. This week, I am going back to DeVito but this time we’re going to the air.
Washington was already the worst pass defense in the league before they got rid of their best pass rusher in Chase Young and, last week, ceded 369 yards to Geno Smith and the Seahawks. Back in Week 7, Giants backup Tyrod Taylor passed for 279 yards on just 29 pass attempts (9.62 yards per attempt) against Washington, and every QB the Commanders have faced since Week 1 has thrown for 210+ yards.
DeVito had it rough last week but two weeks prior managed to hit 175 yards passing (in less than a full game) against another weaker secondary/pass rush in Las Vegas.
You can’t help but think that another week of practice helps out the rookie a little either. With a great matchup and far less scary pass rush to face, he’s a solid HIGHER to start cards off with in Week 11.
Darius Slayton HIGHER than 24.5 receiving yards
- Play to: 26.5 HIGHER
- Fantasy Life Projection: 33.6 receiving yards
What’s better than taking the HIGHER on one Giants offensive player? Taking the HIGHER on two Giants offensive players of course!
Slayton comes in still locked into a near everydown role and feels unlikely to have that role cut given the fact Jalin Hyatt (concussion) is very questionable to play this week, and Wan’Dale Robinson (knee) is also limited.
Slayton comes, for the season, has crushed this to the HIGHER in five of nine games, and with his total set at just 24.5 yards we're hardly in need of a record setting day.
We’re rolling the dice by stacking Giants but these totals just feel too low against Washington. Given the injuries, Slayton’s low receiving total makes him a nice addition to cards and good way to correlate our second pick with DeVito’s total.
Kyler Murray HIGHER than 238.5 passing yards
- Play to: 240.5 HIGHER
- Fantasy Life Projection: 243.5
The HIGHER on Murray isn’t the biggest edge we have in the Fantasy Life projections this week but, at the same time, his yardage totals still look very suppressed, especially for such a solid matchup. The Texans have been a clear funnel to the pass defense all season and come in 25th in yards per pass attempt against.
While Murray had a bit of an inefficient day in his return against Atlanta, he still put up 249 yards and 7.78 yards per attempt against a solid pass defense in Atlanta – who is 10th in yards per pass against.
Further, the Arizona defense, which ranks 31st in defensive DVOA and 20th in yards per play against, should be a big help in pushing Murray into more passing situations, given Houston’s explosive offense on the other side.
Since Week 5, we’ve seen the likes of Derek Carr, Desmond Ridder and Baker Mayfield all sail well over 250 passing yards against the Texans. With Arizona having a healthy complement of receivers and a little confidence now, it’s hard to see Murray having trouble hitting this bar and hitting the HIGHER for us here as well.
You can combine the Giants with Murray for a 6x payout and get your 100% deposit match bonus of up to $100 to tail the picks by clicking below!
Marquise Brown HIGHER than 57.5 receiving yards
- Play to: 59.5 HIGHER
- Fantasy Life Projection: 54.7
I am going against the projections a little on this one – as we have Brown projected for just 54.7 yards on Fantasy Life – but the fact we are correlating him with the HIGHER on Murray in this spot makes his inclusion OK in my eyes. The fact of the matter is that while Brown may have only converted one catch for 28 yards in Week 10, he and Murray were inches away from a lot bigger day.
History is on our side here as well.
Between Week’s 2 to 6 last year, when DeAndre Hopkins was out and Kyler Murray was healthy, Brown went for 65 yards or more five straight weeks. With Houston’s secondary allowing two WRs to go for 100+ yards last week, it’s a spot to trust this connection and double up on HIGHER’s from the Arizona passing game.
You can combine the Giants and Cardinals stacks to get a 10x payout and take advantage of your $100 bonus by clicking below!
Jerome Ford HIGHER than 11.5 receiving yards
- Play to: 12.5 HIGHER
- Fantasy Life Projection: 15.7
Ford has taken over the majority of the snaps for the Browns. He’s seen a snap share of over 60% in his last two games and posted a route rate of 62% last week as well. Further, while the matchup this week against Pittsburgh isn’t great for a big rushing day, Ford still has some very low receiving totals we can target.
His 11.5 receiving yard total is nearly 4.0 yards lower than what we have projected for on Fantasy Life this week and it’s well worth noting that in his first game with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB he saw 6 targets, and converted 5 into catches for 19 yards.
The Steelers are a solid tackling team but have allowed at least one RB to go for 12+ yards receiving in every single game they have played this year. With Kareem Hunt being relegated to most early down relief work and short yardage, I like taking the HIGHER on Ford’s low receiving yardage as a one-off play to finish off our pick’em card for Week 11.
You can combine all 5 picks for a 20x payout and get your $100 deposit match to tail the picks by clicking below!
Other Week 11 Pick'em Plays
Lines can and do move dramatically on Underdog Pick’em throughout the week, so if any of the above end up out of range here are some extra Week 11 pick’em plays I would consider using/targeting as pivots:
- Jordan Love HIGHER 229.5 passing yards (play to 232.5)
- Christian Watson HIGHER 35.5 receiving yards (play to 37.5)
- Tank Dell HIGHER 52.5 receiving yards (play to 55.5)
- Cortland Sutton LOWER 54.5 receiving yards (play to 51.5)
- Breece Hall HIGHER 56.5 rushing yards (play to 57.5)