Brenden Rice Scouting Report and Fantasy Football Outlook

Brenden Rice Scouting Report

• Underdog ADP: 234.7 overall (WR100), rookie WR21
• WR Rookie Super Model: 36th percentile

In some ways, I feel bad for Brenden Rice.

He has one of the greatest WRs (I’m hedging to save myself from any arguments, but Jerry is the GOAT in my opinion) to ever play football as his dad. It’s hard to imagine the younger Rice not benefitting from the familial connection.

But choosing to follow his in the Hall of Fame WR’s footsteps sets expectations. Not “future 10-time All-Pro” expectations, but we see the last name and conjure lofty projections. And then we see Rice’s athletic profile…It's bad enough that Rice declared in the same year that another legendary WR’s son also entered the draft.

And based on his collegiate production, we can’t forecast a high-end career arc for Rice either. However, if we reset our assumptions, we can find some traits that could make him a viable fantasy asset.

Pros and Cons of Brenden Rice

Pros

Efficient against man and zone coverage

A cursory look at Rice’s profile would place him in the “deep threat” WR archetype.

• Perimeter snap rate at USC: 89.5%
• Average depth of target (aDOT): 14.3
• Contested target rate: 25.8% (2022) and 17.1% (2023)

Intuitively, you’d assume that Rice could win on the outside. And accordingly, his film reps highlight solid release techniques against tight coverage.

However, Rice’s route-running skills extend past just being faster or stronger than the defender. On interior designs, his 6’2, 208 lb. frame already puts CBs on alert. But when he combines his size with quick footwork, Rice can take advantage of interior concepts.

Rice demonstrated efficient play not just as a perimeter WR but on the inside, too. As a result, in his final season at USC, his yards per route run (YPRR) against both man and zone coverage stack up with the rest of his peers.

While he doesn’t fall into the first quadrant with the other top WR prospects, Rice still finds himself in good company.

More importantly, the film and data indicate that he can operate as more than a deep-threat receiver. With time to develop, Rice can increase his route versatility at the NFL level.

Kept the offense moving

So we've established that Rice has multi-level utility. However, I already laid out where teams felt it was best to deploy him. Rice lived on an island with a population of two people: himself and a corner. Sure, there’d likely be safety coverage farther back, but Rice still had to warrant the extra attention.

And since he popped up for 12 TDs in his final season, defenders knew who he was. With that said, let’s zoom in on Rice’s time as the outside WR.

You see the human tug-of-war match between Rice and the (seemingly undersized) DB and the outcome that typified many of the former Trojan’s highlights. For an instant, he looks like his dad. And making explosive plays and falling into the end zone is what any coach or fan would want to see. 

But either event can be fluky. Sometimes, all the offense needs is getting another set of downs. In those scenarios, we look to the slot receiver or a pass-catching TE. However, Rice, even playing the traditional X-receiver role, was still able to consistently move the chains.

Unsurprisingly, at 86.8%, Rice had the second-highest perimeter route rate in 2023. Only Devontez Walker played a higher rate of snaps on the outside. However, Rice’s series-conversion rate was a surprise. At 0.51 first downs per target, Rice ranked sixth amongst his peers just behind Malik Nabers (0.53).

Being able to generate big plays is almost a prerequisite for exterior WRs. Without help from short aDOT throws and interior (i.e., smaller-size) defensive players, WRs like Rice don’t have other options. Regardless, Rice showed that he can be both a threat to second-level defenders and keep his offense on schedule by coming up with much-needed first downs.

Cons

A WR1 by title only

The WR1 moniker can have multiple descriptors. A WR getting the most targets relative to his teammates is a common definition. But there are still discrepancies with that definition. For example, here are three “WR1s” and their respective target shares in 2023:

• Davante Adams: 33.0%
• Mike Evans: 24.7%
• Amari Cooper: 21.4%

All of them are WR1s in that they earn the most targets of any WR on their respective teams. But Adams’s 10.3 targets per game were more palatable to fantasy managers than Cooper’s 8.5, and that’s without even considering who was throwing them the ball.

So it’s not just about a WR having the most targets but about him earning significantly more targets than his teammates. Unfortunately, Rice only checked one of those two boxes. First, Rice didn’t break out until his final season, which is a concern. Even still, in that one year, he had the second-lowest target share in the 2024 WR class.

It’s not like he had other NFL-caliber WRs to compete with (like Brian Thomas Jr.) or poor QB play (like Ricky Pearsall). And yet, Rice barely out-targeted Tahj Washington. Part of the problem was Rice’s time spent on the field (or lack thereof).Typically, we see WRs run more routes as they progress through college. Either they become more in tune with the offense, or the better receivers cycle out to the draft or another college program. Sometimes, both things happen. But eventually, these WRs become full-time players with route rates that crest 80.0-90.0% of their QB’s dropbacks. This indicates that if the QB is looking to throw, that WR is out there on the field. 

However, Rice's maximum route rate was the second-lowest in this rookie class. And it’s not like USC was trotting out multi-TE packages on a majority of their plays, either. Consequently, Rice may take more time to work into an NFL rotation without as much on-field experience as his fellow rookie WRs.

Fantasy Football Outlook for Brenden Rice

At worst, Rice instantly slots in as a team’s No. 3 WR, as he has the chops to beat press coverage and draw a safety away from a QB’s primary read.

Plus, his long speed can turn a broken play into a big gain. As Rice consistently demonstrated in college, being a better athlete on a single play isn’t much of a problem for him.

However, asking for more from Rice may be problematic. After all, he spent his final two seasons battling for targets in his offense.

Rice has the potential to be the No. 2 in two-WR sets, but the reps haven’t been there for him. His strength is his, well, strength. Without even above-average nuance or detail to his routes, teams will stereotype him to the boundary. It’s no wonder his mock draft value has steadily declined over the offseason. However, all Rice needs is a decent landing spot to still produce, and an impressive list of NFL teams have brought Rice in for a private workout:

• 49ers
• Eagles
• Jets
• Chargers
• Raiders
• Panthers
• Cardinals

Two of those teams already have strong veteran WRs on the roster from whom Rice can learn, and he could complement them as the No. 3 WR in 11-personnel concepts.

Three other teams who brought him in for a workout just need bodies on the field. Rice has the skillset to make a genuine impact from his first step onto an NFL field, but which team drafts him and their infrastructure will impact his long-term development.