Welcome to the Dynasty Mailbag! My goal is to bring you thoughts, insight and research on the most pressing dynasty topics. 

Let’s dive deep into some tough-to-decipher scenarios and mess around with fun “what ifs.” 

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The Offseason Dilema

“What is the best way to navigate indecision about trading in the offseason? If you find what feels like a pretty fair trade but don't know if you want to trade because you are just getting antsy with no football happening and less moves being made on a weekly basis or if you want to trade because you think it is pretty decent for your team?"

This is probably one of the best dynasty questions I've ever gotten because it encompasses so many different scenarios. If you're a true dynasty manager, you know there's no real offseason. Yes, it's good to take some down time maybe after the NFL season is over and then regroup for the following year, but you're always “in-season.”

Which is why it can be tricky to know if you're making offseason trades just because you're bored or if you're actually making your team better.

I've found most of this comes down to preference. Personally, I'm a fairly conservative dynasty manager in the offseason. So much can change between the NFL Draft and Week 1 that I'm not always super comfortable being aggressive about things I don't have full confidence in.

However, that's also where the potential upside lies. If you're looking to trade away a known commodity (veteran) for an unknown (rookie), the risk/reward could be worth it.

Much of this boils down to having a good feel for your roster and where it fits within the larger ecosystem of your league. Is your team in the top-third, middle-third, or bottom-third? Are you currently the odds-on favorite to win the championship or will you likely miss the playoffs? Once you understand that, you can be more intentional about making offseason moves.

Lastly, so much of making good moves in dynasty leagues comes down to timing. Over the course of the calendar year, various assets become more and less valuable. In the offseason and heading into the NFL Draft, rookie picks are all the rage. However, as you near your league's trade deadline or fantasy playoffs, rookie picks become cheaper in favor of established veterans. Knowing the market cycle and timing your buys/sells can help make you a more informed dynasty manager.

Dontayvion Wicks SZN?

“What would you pay for Wicks right now in dynasty?"

Whenever you start drawing even minor comparisons to an elite player like Davante Adams, it's going to garner some attention. Especially when you start putting together a few solid performances on the field.

As a rookie, Dontayvion Wicks finished third among Green Bay wideouts in targets (58), receptions (39) and receiving yards (581). Three of his four TDs came in the final three weeks of the year, and he also scored against Dallas in the playoffs.

Here's how the Packers four wideouts compared during the regular season.

For being essentially the fourth option, why is Wicks getting more attention this offseason? It's all about projecting forward and taking a closer look at what his true upside could be.

Chris Allen recently tabbed Wicks as one of his 2024 WR Sleepers and had this to say about the budding prospect:

Objectively, Wicks’ contextualized workload emphasizes he has more value than his ADP suggests.

  • Play-Action Targets: 2nd (team target share), 1st (targets per route run)
  • Third-/Fourth-Down Targets: 3rd, 1st
  • YPRR: 2nd
  • First Downs per Target: 1st

These are all good metrics for a developing WR. However, the one that caught my eye was his usage in two-WR sets. Green Bay ran concepts with two receivers on the field at the seventh-highest rate in 2023. In those sets, Wicks had the highest TPRR rate, even with Watson and Doubs active. His 3.81 YPRR was more than the other two combined (1.19, 1.80). Meanwhile, Reed barely saw the field, touching the ball just once in this personnel grouping.

As of this writing, here are the dynasty rankings of Green Bay's wideouts:

With all that in mind, taking into account what I think his role and upside could be, I would be willing to trade a (late) future 2nd round pick for Wicks.

Year 2 Breakouts

“Which of these second-year wide receivers are you targeting in dynasty leagues and will have the most value after the 2024 season?"

The 2023 WR class brought a ton of intriguing dynasty assets. Some performed better than others, while some left fantasy managers wanting a bit more. For sake of clarity, here's where Fantasy Life has each of them ranked in dynasty as of this writing:

All are within 10 spots of each other, which makes this a really fun question to dive into. In my mind, it's a two-part question. I just tabbed both Addison and JSN as dynasty trade targets, as I think both are prime candidates to see an increase in dynasty value now that they've fallen off a bit.

However, I think Rice is the one I want to target from a long-term perspective. As a rookie, he paced all Kansas City wideouts in targets (102), receptions (79) and receiving yards (938) and led the team in receiving TDs (7).

In fact, following a Week 10 bye, Rice became a near-full-time player and posted strong usage rates across the board. He also finished as a top-15 WR four times during that stretch while never finishing lower than WR38.

Yes, the off-the-field issues will likely cost him some games, and the Chiefs did address the position by drafting Xavier Worthy and signing Marquise Brown. Still, in dynasty formats, it's hard to ignore the role Rice carved out for himself as a rookie and how his usage should only continue to grow with the best HC/QB combination in the league.