Theo Johnson Scouting Report and Fantasy Football Outlook
Theo Johnson Scouting Report
- Underdog ADP: 238.7 overall, TE40, rookie TE4
Theo Johnson is one of the more exciting dart-throw prospects at the TE position in the 2024 NFL draft class. There aren’t any elite tight end prospects after Brock Bowers, but there are a handful of intriguing guys with upside if they land with the right team with decent draft capital.
Johnson was a four -year player at Penn State who didn’t have a ton of production in college, but he crushed the NFL Combine and is projected for decent draft capital. There are some major red flags in his profile, particularly his lack of production in college, but he isn’t without upside, either.
Year | Receptions | Receiving Yards | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 20 | 328 | 4 |
2023 | 34 | 341 | 7 |
Johnson is usually in the discussion to be somewhere in the range of TE2 to TE4 in this class, but he will be viewed as a developmental prospect wherever he is drafted.
Pros and Cons of Theo Johnson
Pros
Size
Johnson has legit size for an NFL TE at 6-foot-6 and 259 pounds. In an era where we are seeing more receiving TEs enter the league as essentially jumbo WRs, Johnson looks like more of a throwback at the position. While he isn’t an elite blocker at this point, his size gives him the potential to develop into an every-down player at the position.
His height, wingspan, and vertical also make him a potential red zone target, which could translate to solid fantasy value if he lands in a competent offense. It doesn’t take much to be relevant as a TE if you can score on a regular basis. Johnson has that potential, and he showed it a bit in his final college season when he tied for the team lead with seven receiving TDs.
Athleticism
Johnson likely earned himself a good amount of money with the performance he put on at the NFL Combine. He participated in six of the athletic drills in Indianapolis and tested as a top-two athlete among the TE position group in five of those drills. When you adjust these results for his size, he really stands out as one of the most athletic TE prospects in this class.
Fantasy managers have been let down many times by ultra-athletic TE prospects who never put it all together in the NFL, but that doesn’t mean we should stop taking shots on them altogether. A player like Johnson requires patience as he hopefully develops from raw athlete into a more complete TE. Be prepared to stash him for multiple seasons if you spend a rookie pick on him.
Jan 2, 2023; Pasadena, California, USA; Utah Utes cornerback Zemaiah Vaughn (16) tackles Penn State Nittany Lions tight end Theo Johnson (84) in the first half of the 109th Rose Bowl game at the Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Cons
Limited production profile
As great as Johnson looks from a measurable standpoint, his production leaves a lot to be desired. Despite playing in 44 career games for Penn State, Johnson didn’t reach 1,000 receiving yards for his career.
He only topped 50 receiving in a game yards five times in college and never really threatened a 100-yard game. Some of this can be blamed on Penn State’s run-heavy offense, but he still doesn’t score well in receiving yards per team pass attempt, which is an important stat in Dwain McFarland’s rookie TE model.
This isn’t a death knell for his NFL potential, but it is a major concern. Penn State hasn’t been known for demonstrating great QB play or a dynamic passing offense, but his inability to command targets does not bode well for his upside as an NFL pass catcher.
The one positive in his production profile is that he did improve each season in college. He never took the leap we would hope to see, but his receptions, yards and TDs did increase every year, which is something to build off of.
Blocking
Despite his size, Johnson will need to improve his blocking if he is going to be the primary TE for an NFL team. We ultimately want our TEs running routes and catching passes, but being a solid blocker allows them to be on the field in all situations. That can lead to more opportunities in play-action passing situations where the offense doesn’t want to tip whether they are running or passing.
There are some signs he can develop in this area, particularly his ability to move defenders when he does engage them as a blocker. However, it is a bit concerning that he isn’t a better blocker already, given his size, age and time at a college program known for turning out good TE prospects.
Age
After playing four seasons at Penn State, Johnson will enter the NFL at 23 years old. Considering that TE is a notoriously difficult position to master in the NFL, this is a red flag when compared to other prospects in this draft class. He is more than a full year older than Ja’Tavion Sanders and Ben Sinnott, with whom he is often grouped as potential TE2 in this draft class.
Not only is his age a concern for his ability to develop, it also makes his lack of production in college an even bigger red flag. Never logging a breakout season is a real concern, especially since we now know he is extremely athletic.
If NFL teams don’t penalize him for his age, I won’t factor it in too much, but from a dynasty perspective I do break ties in favor of the younger player, which could cost Johnson a spot of two in my final rookie rankings.
Fantasy Football Outlook for Theo Johnson
It’s important to be clear that the odds are against Theo Johnson ever being truly relevant for fantasy football, but he has traits that make him worth grabbing with a mid-round rookie draft pick. His athleticism does give him a ceiling if he is able to continue improving.
I like Ja’Tavion Sanders more, but assuming Johnson doesn’t fall in the draft, I expect him to come in as my TE3 or TE4 in final rookie rankings. I think he will generally go in the third round of rookie drafts, but we shouldn’t have any real expectations for him to produce much in his first season in the league.
As with most TE prospects, we will have to keep a close eye on him for the first few seasons of his career to see if there are any signs of an upcoming breakout. If Johnson is ever going to turn into full-time starter, it likely won’t happen for at least two seasons, so we need to set our expectations accordingly.
