We're halfway through June, which means that everyone at Fantasy Life is reviewing, updating, and obsessing over—but in a totally healthy way—our 2025 fantasy football rankings (applicable for best ball, redraft, and Guillotine Leagues), as well as our 2025 season-long projections and everything else that is a part of our FantasyLife+ package.

I got back from vacation a little bit ago, but before I went, I met up with Dwain McFarland (our Fantasy Life Director of Analytics) for an afternoon of BBQ, beer, and bantering about projections, especially those that surprised us within our respective sets.

Now that I'm back from a tropical location undisclosed, with rested eyes and something almost resembling a tan, I'm taking a fresh look at my projections—and these are the five that still stand out the most to me.

Note: All referenced ADP (in parentheses) is Underdog, via our Fantasy Life ADP Tool (as of Thu. 6/12). All fantasy points are half PPR.

Fantasy Football Projections For 2025

WR Justin Jefferson (Vikings)

  • ADP: WR2 (3.1 overall)
  • Projection: WR8 (219.6 points)

I want to make this clear: I do not hate Justin Jefferson. The dude is on a Hall of Fame trajectory, and he currently holds the all-time career record with 96.5 yards receiving per game.

On a weekly and yearly basis, he has an incredibly high and solid floor.

He's one of only a handful of players to have five 1,000-yard receiving campaigns in his first half decade in the league.

Just a few years ago, in 2022, he won Offensive Player of the Year with a league-high 128 receptions and 1,809 yards receiving.

But a lot has changed since then.

First of all, the Vikings defense is better, so the offense doesn't need to throw as many passes, which in turn means that Jefferson is likely to see fewer targets. We saw this dynamic at play last year (based on per-game stats).

  • 2022: 25.1 points allowed | 39.5 team pass attempts | 10.8 targets for Jefferson
  • 2024: 19.5 points allowed | 32.2 team pass attempts | 9.1 targets for Jefferson

On top of that, the Vikings added No. 2 WR Jordan Addison in 2023, and he has put up 1,808 yards and 20 TDs from scrimmage in his two NFL seasons. With Addison, the team has less of a need to funnel as much of the offense through Jefferson.

And finally, there's the change at QB. In 2022, Jefferson had Kirk Cousins. Last year, in his return to form, Jefferson had Sam Darnold. Neither is an elite passer, but both are veterans.

This year, he has J.J. McCarthy—and I'm bullish on McCarthy—but he's unproven and coming off an injury that sidelined him as a rookie, so I need to be reasonably conservative when creating his passing projections … and that's going to impact all his pass catchers.

So that's why Jefferson's projection is so out of line with his ADP.

But, again, he's a high-floor guy. He deserves to go in Round 1.

RB Ashton Jeanty (Raiders)

  • ADP: RB4 (9.7 overall)
  • Projection: RB10 (213.3 points)

Ashton Jeanty's elevated ADP makes sense to me. He's a high-ceiling selection. If you draft Jeanty in Round 1, you do so because you're trying to shoot the moon.

But he carries obvious risk.

The betting market has the Raiders slated for about seven wins: Under 7.5 is -165 at FanDuel, and over 6.5 is -145 at DraftKings.

And that means I'm projecting the Raiders to run fewer offensive plays per game and to have a higher pass-play rate than average.

  • 2025 Raiders: 60 plays | 63.0%
  • Three-Year NFL Average: 62.3 | 59.7%

Jeanty's talented, but there are only so many opportunities and TDs I can project for a rookie RB on a mediocre team with a relatively slow, pass-heavy offense.

WR Jerry Jeudy (Browns)

  • ADP: WR38 (67.8 overall)
  • Projection: WR17 (193.6 points)

As I noted in my recent piece on the one guy from each NFL team I most want to draft, Jerry Jeudy is someone I like this year. I knew that would be reflected in my projections—but even I wasn't expecting my numbers to be this aggressive on him.

But I also think this projection makes sense.

Last year, Jeudy finally broke out with 1,229 yards receiving, and he was dominant without QB Deshaun Watson (Achilles), putting up 69-963-3 receiving on 103 targets in his final 10 games. 

Aside from Jeudy, the Browns are highly unsettled at WR, so he could reprise the role he had last year at season's end, when he was No. 8 at the position in our Fantasy Life Utilization Score (8.7, per our Utilization Report).

Although Jeudy has an uncertain QB situation, at least Joe Flacco previously had success with the team in his 2023 CPOY stint, and I expect the Browns to run a lot of plays from a trailing (and thus pass-leaning) game script.

And that means Jeudy could see 120-plus targets yet again.

RB D'Andre Swift (Bears)

  • ADP: RB26 (79.6 overall)
  • Projection: RB14 (200.7 points)

I'm surprised that D'Andre Swift is this high in my projections relative to other RBs.

But it also makes sense because Swift has minimal competition for backfield opportunities, he's coming off a career-best 1,345-yard campaign, and the Bears should be improved in 2025 thanks to the maturation of second-year QB Caleb Williams and the addition of offensive HC Ben Johnson as well as LG Joe Thuney, C Drew Dalman, and RG Jonah Jackson, who collectively will strengthen the middle of the offensive line.

Swift is a three-down player (482 carries, 101 targets over past two seasons), so he should be able to produce in most (if not all) game states, and in his one previous season with Johnson as a playcaller (with the 2022 Lions) he averaged a career-high 5.5 yards per opportunity.

I believe the market is markedly too low on Swift.

QB Tyler Shough (Saints)

  • ADP: QB31 (210.1 overall)
  • Projection: QB25 (250.4 points)

I knew that I was relatively high on Tyler Shough—because he's got good athleticism (4.63-second 40-yard dash at 6-5, 219 lbs.), a strong arm, and a decent chance of starting 17 games—but I still wasn't expecting to have him projected ahead of … checks notes … Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Bryce Young, and Michael Penix.

But I like Shough's situation: He should benefit from working with wunderkind offensive HC Kellen Moore, and he has an underrated collection of pass catchers (WRs Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Brandin Cooks, TE Juwan Johnson, and RB Alvin Kamara). Plus, with the Saints expected to trail so much (they're dead last with +30000 odds to win the Super Bowl at DraftKings), he could have extra opportunities as a passer and scrambler.

Shough is one of my low-end Freedman's favorites for 2025.