Dwain McFarland does a deep dive into fantasy football projections for quarterbacks, measuring the upside ceiling for dual threats to pocket passers.

To cultivate a worthwhile advantage over our peers at the QB position in fantasy football, we need to prioritize profiles with significant upside.

To quantify significant upside, this research focused on signal-callers who provided a 20% or higher advantage in points per game over low-end QB1s (QB10 to QB12). Since 2011, that magic number has come in at just over 22 points per game, representing a 3.4-point-per-game advantage over low-end QB1s. 

Over that span, 278 QBs have played 15+ games in a season, and 45 have reached 22+ points per game—the average of a top-three signal-caller. By comparison, the average QB6 enjoyed a one-point (5%) advantage over his low-end QB1 peers. 

So, what do the 22+ point-per-game profiles look like?

One way to answer this question is to break down the list of 45 quarterbacks who scored 22+ points. However, we could miss the big picture and important profile clues with an approach that is too narrow. Instead, I opted to zoom out and see how many quarterbacks that met different thresholds notched a 22-plus fantasy points per game season.

For this exercise, historical quarterback performances were grouped into buckets, starting with their yards per game passing and then layering in rushing. You might be wondering why passing touchdowns aren't part of the profile process, which is an excellent question because passing-TD variance is one of the top drivers of turnover in fantasy scoring, especially for pocket passers. The answer is simple: passing touchdowns strongly correlate with passing yards, which are more stable. However, we will fully account for TD variance in the second half of this piece as we dive into 2025 player analysis.

This is the teaching-you-how-to-fish section of the article, where we will develop our big-picture takeaways regarding archetypes. Then, in the second half, the focus shifts to actionable player takeaways for the 2025 season.

Historical QB Performance: Searching for Upside Archetypes

Group 1: Elite passers (300-plus per game)

There have been 26 quarterbacks to reach 300+ yards per game passing since 2011, with 16 (62%) reaching 22+ points per game. Now let's layer in their rushing yards per game. 

  • 0 to 9 rushing yards per game: 11 of 19 (58%)
  • 10 to 19: 2 of 4 (50%)
  • 20-plus: 3 of 3 (100%)

It is worth noting that Patrick Mahomes was the last QB to reach 300+ yards per game in 2022. Over the last three seasons, the NFL has averaged only 218 yards per game, down from 234.5 yards per game from 2019 to 2021.

Whether the change is due to the retirement of multiple Hall of Fame quarterbacks (e.g., Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning), the modern-day defense, or some combination, is hard to determine, but only three QBs have reached 300-plus passing yards per game since 2020.

Big-Picture Takeaway: When it comes to elite passers, they can post 22+ points per game without much help in the rushing department, but they are nearing extinction over the last five years.

Group 2: Great passers (275 to 299 per game)

There have been 44 QBs who have reached 275 to 299 yards per game, with nine (20%) making it to 22+ points per game.

  • 0 to 9 rushing yards per game: 1 of 33 (3%)
  • 10 to 19: 5 of 7 (71%)
  • 20+: 3 of 4 (75%)

Unlike the elite group, QBs in this bucket rarely reach the 22-point threshold without some help from their legs. Statue pocket passers in this range don't offer the upside some might think.

We may need to recalibrate the elite passing marks to align with this group, given the decline of the 300-per-game options. Since 2020, 15 signal-callers have made it to this range.

Big-Picture Takeaway: Great passers who can add 10+ rushing yards per game offer the upside we are looking for. However, statue pocket passers in this bucket don't offer the upside some might think.

Group 3: Good passers (250 to 274 per game)

We have witnessed 100 signal-callers who reached 250 to 274 yards per game, with 11 (11%) gracing the threshold of 22+ points per game.

  • 0 to 9 rushing yards per game: 1 of 68 (1.5%)
  • 10 to 19: 2 of 16 (13%)
  • 20 to 29: 2 of 9 (22%)
  • 30+: 6 of 7 (86%)

Big-Picture Takeaway: It is extremely rare for a good passer to reach 22 points per game without a boost from rushing. We should focus on options who can clear 30 yards per game.

Group 4: Average-to-above-average passers (225 to 249 per game)

Since 2011, 80 QBs have finished with 225 to 249 passing yards per game, with seven (9%) reaching 22 fantasy points per game.

  • 0 to 9 rushing yards per game: 0 of 45 (0%)
  • 10 to 19: 0 of 16 (0%)
  • 20 to 29: 0 of 6 (0%)
  • 30 to 39: 4 of 6 (86%)
  • 40-plus: 3 of 5 (60%)

Big-Picture Takeaway: Passers in this range MUST offer a rushing profile with 30+ rushing yards per game to average 22+ points.

Group 5: Below-average-to-bad passers (less than 225 yards per game)

There have been 101 signal-callers who finished with 224 passing yards or less per game. Only four (4%) of them managed 22+ points, and they were elite rushing options.

Big-Picture Takeaway: The only passers we should consider in this bucket are those with elite rushing profiles.

Who are the upside Fantasy QBs to focus on in 2025?

For this part of the exercise, we won't focus on the established high-end options, such as Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow. They are the top five signal callers off the board in Underdog drafts and rightfully so—they all match archetypes that have historically provided us with 22-point upside.

Still, it is worth noting that taking one of these high-end options in the first four to five rounds of a fantasy draft is more appealing than in most years for one major reason: this is the first year since 2019, where we don't have a clear mid-to-late round target that allows us to wait at the position confidently.

Back to the point at hand—2025 upside candidates. For this portion of the exercise, we will lean on my median projections and our new variance model to help establish a range of outcomes for QBs drafted in Round 9 or later in Underdog drafts. In a nutshell, the variance model accounts for the stability of each stat that makes up fantasy scoring (i.e., passing yards, passing TDs, passing INTs, rushing yards, rushing TDs). For example, passing touchdowns offer a wider range of outcomes than passing yards.

Not only did we test each statistic across all data, but we also broke performances down into percentiles to see which statistics were more or less volatile from the mean in high-performing versus low-performing groups. For some stats, there was no difference, but for others, the volatility increased for low performers. All of these factors are included in the ceiling projections.

Using those ceiling projections, we can match players against the favorable archetypes from above. As a quick recap, here are the archetypes that are associated most strongly with upside (22+ points per game):

  • Elite passers (300-plus per game): Don't need rushing help, but are near extinct.
  • Great passers (275 to 299): Must be able to add 10+ rushing yards per game.
  • Good passers (250 to 274): Must be able to add 30+ rushing yards per game.
  • Average-to-above-average passers (225 to 249): Must be able to add 30+ rushing yards per game.
  • Below-average-to-bad passers (less than 225): Must be able to add 50+ rushing yards per game, but can be closer to 40 if a massive part of the goal-line rushing attack (e.g., Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen).

Kyler Murray | Cardinals

  • Archetype: Average passer with 40+ rushing upside
  • Floor Projection: 15.3 (fantasy points per game)
  • Median Projection: 18.6
  • Ceiling Projection: 24.1

Murray's median projections are 227 and 33 for passing and rushing yards per game, respectively. His ceiling marks come in at 251 and 44, helping fuel the sixth-highest ceiling in the variance model.

Murray has fallen to low-end QB1 territory over the last three years, finishing 11th, 10th, and 11th, averaging 18.5 points per game. It is fair to doubt Murray as a passer at this point in his career. His 271 yards per game in 2021 look like an outlier after averaging 222 the last three years. Here's the great news: his median projections are modest, and he STILL shines in the variance model. He has eclipsed 30 yards rushing per game every season of his career. 

The 28-year-old offers the rare type of profile that can spike in a significant way in both passing and rushing departments—which could unlock top-three upside in a pure runout. His closest comps using his ceiling projections averaged 22.4 points per game with an average finish of QB4.

Bo Nix | Broncos

  • Archetype: Average passer with 30-plus rushing upside
  • Floor Projection: 15.2
  • Median Projection: 18.5
  • Ceiling Projection: 23.8

Nix projects for 231 passing yards and 24.3 rushing yards per contest, closely aligned with his rookie marks of 222 and 25. However, his ceiling marks of 255 and 35.5 offer room for growth in Year 2, boosting his ceiling to No. 7 in the variance model at 23.8 points per game.

While there are slight concerns with passing TD regression, his 5.1% per attempt wasn't astronomically higher than the average starter over the last three years of 4.6%. Nix ranked second among all starting QBs with 23% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage, behind only Tua Tagovailoa. While Drew Brees' career-high was 21%, it is worth noting that the Broncos lacked quality downfield weapons, and receivers are a bigger driver of target depth than quarterbacks.

The glass-half-full version reads as follows: Sean Payton and Nix were able to devise easy yards in 2024 to overcome a talent deficit, which they attempted to address by adding Evan Engram, RJ Harvey, and Pat Bryant this offseason. While the jury is out on that trio, the Broncos are trying to improve weaponry. Nix is one of only five signal-callers with a passing ceiling north of 250, plus a rushing ceiling above 30 per game.

The second-year signal-caller ranks as my QB7—the highest of any Fantasy Life ranker.

Justin Fields | Jets

  • Archetype: Bad passer with 50-plus rushing upside
  • Floor Projection: 15.6
  • Median Projection: 19.0
  • Ceiling Projection: 23.7

Fields projects for 191 yards passing and 51 rushing yards per game, with ceilings of 213 and 57. That median passing projection is slightly generous thanks to a league-regression component, but it isn't far off from Fields' 180 passing yards in games where he played 90% or more of the snaps. Using that same snap threshold, he averaged 55 rushing yards per game.

You might be wondering why his rushing ceiling isn't higher, and the simple answer is that reaching anything higher than 55 is extremely rare—even for the best of the best. Since 2011, only three instances exist:

While we aim to pack as much ceiling as possible into our range of outcomes, there is a cutoff for extreme tail outcomes.

Still, despite Fields' limitations as a passer, he offers the eighth-highest ceiling at 23.7 points per game. His median projection is superior to that of Nix and Murray because of their stronger dependency on passing TDs. Fields already has QB5 and QB8 seasons on his resume, with 20.6 and 19 points per contest, respectively.

Caleb Williams | Bears

  • Archetype: Average passer with 30-plus rushing upside
  • Floor Projection: 14.9
  • Median Projection: 18.2
  • Ceiling Projection: 23.4

Williams projects for 222 passing yards and 25 rushing yards per contest after averaging 208 and 29 in his rookie campaign. While the median projections are modest, there is plenty to get excited about with Williams, making his ceiling a realistic proposition.

It is hard to run more pure than that in one offseason, and none of that accounts for the positive rushing regression we could see for Williams. He ran the ball 81 times but didn't score on the ground. Since 2011, QBs with 70 to 90 rushing attempts averaged 3.6 rushing TDs.

Williams was a rollercoaster last season, making him a boom-bust archetype, but that ceiling is pretty juicy at 23.4, ranking 10th-best in the variance model. You could argue that, given all the factors working for the 2024 No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick, my median projections are a tad too conservative. Williams is one of six QBs with a ceiling of 245+ passing yards and 35+ rushing yards per game, making him a highly coveted ceiling target in 2025 fantasy drafts.

Williams is my QB9, the highest of any Fantasy Life ranker, ahead of the QB11 consensus.

Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars

  • Archetype: Good passer with 20+ rushing upside
  • Floor Projection: 14.5
  • Median Projection: 17.6
  • Ceiling Projection: 22.9

Lawrence's projections have him at 239 passing yards and 17 rushing yards per game, with ceilings of 264 and 27. Similar to Williams, there are reasons to get excited about Lawrence in 2025 thanks to the breakout of Brian Thomas Jr., the addition of Travis Hunter in Round 1 of the NFL Draft, and the arrival of new head coach/playcaller Liam Coen.

While Lawrence hasn't lived up to expectations as the No. 1 pick in 2021, he posted 242 and 251 passing yards per game in 2022 and 2023, respectively, before the wheels came off in 2024 in a season that ended prematurely thanks to an AC joint sprain to his non-throwing arm. Over his first three years, he averaged 19 rushing yards per game. He has also flashed upside as a rushing weapon inside the 5-yard line, handling 21% and 28% of the totes in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

The 26-year-old QB has never experienced a boom season in the touchdown-per-attempt department, averaging less than the typical NFL starter (4.6%) with rates of 4.3%, 3.7%, and 3.9% over the last three seasons. Still, his rushing prowess and passing yardage propelled him to QB8 and QB12 campaigns in his previous two healthy seasons (2022 and 2023).

Lawrence ranks No. 11 in the variance model ceiling projections as one of only three QBs with a ceiling of 260+ passing yards, 20+ rushing yards, and 0.35+ rushing TDs per game. He profiles similarly to Baker Mayfield, but goes four rounds later in drafts.

Brock Purdy | 49ers

  • Archetype: Good passer with 20-plus rushing upside
  • Floor Projection: 14.6
  • Median Projection: 17.7
  • Ceiling Projection: 22.7

Purdy projects for an average of 247 passing yards and 14.7 rushing yards, with ceiling marks of 272 and 23.3. The 25-year-old offers the 12th-highest ceiling (22.7) in our variance model thanks to a unique blend of passing and rushing upside.

Last year, Purdy notched a career-high 22 rushing yards per game, which helped offset his regression in the passing-TD department. Over his first two seasons, Purdy posted marks of 7.6% and 7%, which were far above the NFL average of 4.6% for a starter over the last three years. In 2024, that number came back to earth at 4.4%. Still, some of that can be attributed to an injury-riddled season for the offense, notably with players such as Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk playing only four and seven games, respectively.

Only seven signal-callers offer a ceiling of 270+ passing yards per game in the variance model, and only three of those offer a rushing ceiling over 20 yards per contest: Patrick Mahomes, Purdy, and Mayfield.

Drake Maye | Patriots

  • Archetype: Average passer with 40-plus rushing upside
  • Floor Projection: 14.3
  • Median Projection: 17.4
  • Ceiling Projection: 22.4

Maye projects for 208 passing yards and 34 rushing yards per contest, with ceiling marks of 231 and 45, offering the 14th-highest ceiling at 22.4 points. There is a chance I'm too low on Maye's passing numbers, but it was hard to push him much higher given Mike Vrabel's historical willingness to stick to the ground game. 

Over Vrabel's last three seasons, his teams dropped back to pass only 56% of the time, and they added TreVeyon Henderson in Round 2 of the NFL Draft to go along with Rhamondre Stevenson. Vrabel was also a time-grinding machine, running only 57.6 plays per game in regulation—the lowest mark of any active head coach. Still, predicting coaching behavior is one of the weaker links in projection land, so I have the Patriots at a 61% dropback rate with 59 plays per game.

Despite that bump, Maye projects well below his 235 yards per game in the nine contests where he accounted for 90% or more of the snaps. So, again, this passing projection might be too low, but pushing any further against Vrabel's historical trends would be outside the range of how the projection model handles median outlooks.

But because I know you are wondering (I did), if we give Maye 235 as his baseline passing yards per game, his ceiling climbs to 23.6, which would rank ninth.

Dak Prescott | Cowboys

  • Archetype: Great passer with 10+ rushing upside
  • Floor Projection: 15.3
  • Median Projection: 18.4
  • Ceiling Projection: 22.4

I can already see the eye rolls after you read the words “great passer” next to “archetype” above. First, it is understandable, given Prescott's performance last season, but he is still within the prime age range (23 to 32) for the position at age 32. Secondly, avoiding recency bias is one of the cool things that analysis like this helps us avoid.

If we zoom out, Prescott has averaged 261 yards per game over the last three years, which is higher than my projection of 258 passing yards. Therefore, we are taking his 2024 season into account, even though injuries and a lack of weaponry were factors that might not hinder his game in 2025. The Cowboys added George Pickens to go with CeeDee Lamb, providing Prescott with his best pass-catching duo in three years.

In the rushing department, the projections are also accounting for his down 2024 year. He projects for 11.6 rushing yards per game—a number below his three-year average of 12.1. He reached 14 and 15 per game in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

After all of that is said and done, the Cowboys' signal-caller offers a ceiling of 283 passing yards and 18.9 rushing yards per game, ranking 15th in the ceiling variance model as the final QB to eclipse 22 points per game. Only four quarterbacks offer a passing ceiling of 280-plus yards: Burrow, Prescott, Jared Goff, and Tagovailoa. However, only Burrow and Prescott offer 10+ rushing yards upside per game.

Upside Honorable Mentions

  • Justin Herbert | Chargers: Herbert has demonstrated upside with two seasons of 22+ points per game when allowed to chuck the rock. However, Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman are likely to stick with a balanced approach given their long history. Herbert's projected ceiling came in at 21.6 points per game.
  • J.J. McCarthy | Vikings: McCarthy is coming back from a season-ending meniscus repair, but is on track for the start of the season. He is an athletic quarterback prospect, but was never a significant part of Michigan's rushing attack with a 7% designed rush rate and 5.7% scramble rate. Kevin O'Connell is a QB ceiling raiser, and the Vikings have weapons, which leaves the door open for McCarthy to push for 250+ passing yards and 20+ rushing yards. Historical comps in that range have reached 22+ points per game 22% of the time.
  • Anthony Richardson | Colts: Richardson offers a very similar profile to Fields at 23.7 points per game, with far more uncertainty about his status as the team's undisputed starter. He is the type of profile worth rostering as a QB2 if you need an upside option in redraft leagues. In best ball, he is tougher because his best fit is in three-QB builds.
  • Jaxson Dart | Giants: Dart might not begin the season as the Giants' starter, but he has a good chance to finish the season under center. Dart averaged 44 yards per game on designed rush attempts and scrambles in college. He offers a 23.1 ceiling projection thanks to a dual-threat profile.

Quarterbacks with less upside than you think in 2025

  • Jared Goff | Lions: Goff remains a great option in best ball, where we are looking for spike games with stacked teammates. However, he is due for a passing touchdown regression after posting a career-high 6.9%, well above his 5% and 4.9% marks in 2023 and 2022, respectively. Additionally, he is a zero in the run game, averaging only three yards per game over the last three seasons. The path to a 22-point upside is extremely narrow—since 2011, only one of 33 similar profiles has managed that feat. Despite Goff's incredible 2024 season, he topped out at 19.2.
  • Tua Tagovailoa | Dolphins: See Goff—same story with Tagovailoa, averaging 4.7 rushing yards per game. Still a legit best ball stacking target, but the path to stand-alone upside is heavily shrouded with obstacles.
  • Matthew Stafford | Rams: See Goff and Tagovailoa. Stafford is only a target in best ball formats for stacking purposes.