2026's Breakout QB For Fantasy Football: Why Tyler Shough Is This Year's Drake Maye
Fantasy

2026's Breakout QB For Fantasy Football: Why Tyler Shough Is This Year's Drake Maye

Looking for the late-round-gem upside that Drake Maye delivered on last season? Look no further. Adam Pfeifer profiles why Tyler Shough is the next late-round quarterback set to break out in fantasy football.

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There’s a reason the quarterback position is always so deep in fantasy football.

Every single year, a new signal-caller emerges with an elite fantasy season, strengthening the position even more. In 2024, it was rookie sensation Jayden Daniels. In 2023, Brock Purdy broke out in his first full season as the starter. And this past season, it was clearly Drake Maye, who had a sensational sophomore season, averaging over 21 fantasy points per game and finishing as a top-three fantasy quarterback. 

As we enter the 2026 season, odds are, we are going to see another breakout fantasy signal-caller, and identifying who it could be might be the key to fantasy success. When looking at the position, a few players stand out as very strong potential candidates. Jaxson Dart is probably the most obvious candidate to break out into a full-season elite fantasy quarterback, but he’s already being drafted as a QB1.

This time last year, Maye was being drafted, on average, around QB16, so I want to focus on someone further down the draft board. And after some time to think, I’ve come to a decision ...

NO_saints-logo.svgTyler Shough Is This Year's Breakout Fantasy QB

We might as well stick with the sophomore quarterback trend, right?

Now look. I don’t want anyone thinking that Shough is going to throw for 31 touchdowns, 4,394 yards and complete 72% of passes, all while leading the NFL in yards per attempt (8.9) en route to a Super Bowl appearance. What Maye did last year was unreal and, at least from an efficiency perspective, is unlikely to be replicated. And Shough obviously wasn’t as good a prospect as Maye entering the league. But we don’t need Shough to suddenly become one of the 10 best quarterbacks in football to be a breakout fantasy option.

We really just need him to build on what he did as a rookie.

The Saints started the year with Spencer Rattler at quarterback, but once Shough took over in Week 8, he didn’t look back. From that point on, Shough showed plenty of fantasy promise, averaging 16.4 fantasy points per game, good for QB14 among qualified passers during that stretch. In those games, Shough flashed some of the things we love from a fantasy quarterback—rushing and deep passes. During that span, 20.9% of Shough’s pass attempts were 15-plus yards down the field (13th), while 12% traveled at least 20 yards. Shough was also pretty efficient during the second half of his first NFL season, ranking:

  • 6th in completion rate (68%)
  • 7th in passing YPG (238.4)
  • 10th in offensive throw EPA (56.4)

Shough was solid as a passer, but also added plenty of production with his legs. From Week 8 on, he handled 8% of the designed rush attempts (1.8 per game), as well as 20% of the inside the five carries. Overall, Shough averaged 4.5 carries and about 20 rushing yards per game during the second half of the year. An added dynamic in the rushing department is always welcomed, and it even helped boost Maye’s fantasy numbers last year when he averaged six carries and 26.4 rushing yards per contest. 

Clearly, Shough has flirted with fantasy brilliance, despite ranking 31st in TD rate during the second half (3.1%). For reference, the league average during that span was 4.7%. Shough’s strong showing as a rookie is a good reason to have interest in him entering 2026.

But his situation is perhaps a better one. 

The Fantasy-Friendly New Orleans Saints

It’s no secret that Kellen Moore’s offenses tend to result in fantasy goodness. He runs a lot of plays, utilizes motion and puts his players in the best possible positions to find success. In his first year in New Orleans, Moore’s offense led the NFL in plays per minute (2.2), while its 22.7% no-huddle rate trailed only the Washington Commanders. Meanwhile, the Saints deployed shift-motion at the snap 64% of the time, the third-highest rate in football and an 11% boost from 2024 (pre-Kellen Moore). From Week 8 on, Shough attempted 194 passes with motion on the play, trailing only Matthew Stafford and Caleb Williams, who also play for coaches that run very fantasy-friendly schemes. 

The scheme is favorable, but one thing that hurt Shough last year was the lack of difference-makers on offense after Chris Olave. New Orleans traded away Rashid Shaheed at the deadline, while Alvin Kamara was only active for three full games once Shough took over the starting job. During Shough’s second-half surge, his wide receiver room left plenty to be desired.

Screenshot 2026-06-02 at 2.02.23 PM.png

Fortunately, the Saints did what every team should do for their young (sort of?) quarterback—add more weapons. This offseason, the Saints selected Jordyn Tyson eighth overall in the draft, as well as signing RB Travis Etienne and LG David Edwards in free agency. The interior offensive line was a massive issue for New Orleans last year, so addressing it with an established veteran like Edwards is great for Shough going forward. And with Tyson, the Saints get a second wideout who can truly create separation at all three levels of the field.

A skill-position group of Etienne, Olave, Tyson and tight end Juwan Johnson feels much better than what Shough was dealing with last season. 

Many detractors may look at who the Saints played during Shough’s second half and assume his success was all schedule-influenced. And admittedly, the Saints did play some light competition during the span, facing Tampa Bay and Carolina twice, Atlanta (twice), Miami, New York and Tennessee. But guess what? The NFC South is arguably the weakest division in football, and the Saints will get six matchups within their own division, on top of facing the Raiders, Browns (without Myles Garrett), Bears and Cardinals. Once again, it appears the schedule is favorable.

As we enter the summer, Shough is being drafted as QB19 in fantasy football ADP, and in traditional 12-team redraft formats, he’ll likely go undrafted. But it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s immediately the top waiver add of Week 1, and possibly the entire season. Everything around him is so favorable for finding fantasy success that the question really comes down to whether you believe in Shough as a player. And yes, he’s unlikely to suddenly emerge as an elite NFL quarterback who will win 12-14 games.

But he doesn't have to in order to be 2026’s breakout fantasy quarterback.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Tyler Shough
    TylerShough
    QBNONO
    PPG
    14.5
    Proj
    273.1

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