In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter:
I’ve probably been selecting Jaxson Dart too much in current drafts.
And this recent quote from Brian Daboll isn’t going to help me slow down:
“He’s been excellent … He's smart, he's aggressive with the football, which I like ... he's progressed since he's been here.”
I know what you might be thinking …
Wait, Pete … why are you drafting a bunch of a rookie QB who is unlikely to start until later in the season?
It’s a fair question … especially because not all rookie QBs are created equal. Last year, Drake Maye started in Week 6, more or less giving you a full season of production.
On the other hand, Michael Penix Jr. didn’t wrestle away the starting job from Kirk Cousins until Week 16, effectively rendering it a redshirt season.
The reason I’m intrigued by Dart is pretty simple:
- He’s free in drafts (18th-round pick)
- He has a dual-threat skill set, which gives him access to a high ceiling at the position
- His production will be backweighted to the most important weeks of the season (the fantasy playoffs, Weeks 15-17)
- And he gets to throw the ball to Malik Nabers
Of course, all of this is moot if Russell Wilson holds onto the starting job for the majority of the season like Cousins did in Atlanta.
Still, I’m willing to gamble that Wilson will not be able to survive and that Dart will take over when it matters the most.
It also doesn’t hurt that there are some intriguing ways to stack him up with fellow Giants players.
If Dart hits, the entire offense is likely very undervalued.
AND MALIK NABERS’ PROJECTIONS COULD BE HIS FLOOR
Is Tyreek Hill The Best Early-Round Value On The Board?
Earlier this summer, Matthew Freedman and Dwain McFarland got together in person to grab a beer and hit the town to go over their 2025 projections sets (don’t ever doubt their dedication).
Tyreek Hill was one of the players they discussed the most.
At the time, Freedman had Hill projected as his WR3. Now, he has him as the WR11 in our 2025 fantasy football rankings. Did he capitulate too much? Maybe—but given Hill's ADP, Freedman is still significantly ahead of the market on him.
From Freedman himself …
“To me, the market is too aggressively assuming Hill's demise. Last year, he had 7.8 yards per target. For Hill, that's a down number, but it's not unprecedented.
In Hill's final season with the Chiefs and QB Patrick Mahomes, he had an identical 7.8 yards per target … and then he was traded for five draft picks to the Dolphins, who saw him pile up an obnoxious 3,509 yards receiving in 2022-23 with an elite 10.3 yards per target.
Clearly, a mark of 7.8 yards per target does not necessarily mean that the end of Hill's career is nigh, especially since he averaged 7.1 yards per target as a rookie in 2016, when he broke out as one of the league's most explosive playmakers.
Might he be on the downward slope of his career? Yes. It's possible.
But just last year, Hill was a top-three fantasy pick … and then he suffered a wrist injury that plagued him for the entire season, and QB Tua Tagovailoa missed six games … and now Hill is available in Round 3.
Come on. This is what a buy-low opportunity looks like.
Even with Hill's down 2024 campaign, he, over the past three seasons, has still amassed 4,568 yards and 27 TDs on 464 targets and 21 carries while missing only one game.
With the Dolphins, Hill has averaged 9.6 yards per target; his career, 9.5.
If he manages to approach those numbers this year, he'll smash his ADP.”
At this point, if Tyreek Hill (ADP: WR16) isn’t one of—or THE best ADP values on the board, who is? Great question. ⬇️
ANOTHER WR TO BUY AT A DISCOUNT
Speaking of ADP …
Who are the biggest risers and fallers as we approach draft season?
You just got the keys to the castle when it comes to exploiting mispriced ADPs—shoutout to Freedman—but which players have seen their stocks rise (or fall) the most over the last week? ⬇️
While these are only five of the biggest risers and fallers, the board is changing by the minute. Head over to our ADP table to see all of the risers and fallers and find your hidden gems. ⬇️
Ready To Ride JT in 2025
The possibility that Jonathan Taylor could be this year’s Saquon Barkley is at least worth considering in the second round of fantasy drafts. The comp? Well, coming into last year Barkley was going in round 2, while coming off injuries that slowed him in previous seasons. Taylor last played a full season in 2021, winning the rushing crown and topping 2,100 scrimmage yards while scoring 20 TDs. At 26, JT could carry the offensive burden for an Indy squad that is unsettled at quarterback.
Ian Hartitz previews the Colts’ pending QB competition between Daniel Jones and injured Anthony Richardson, and a talented crew of pass catchers, including rookie Tyler Warren. Could he break out while playing alongside Josh Downs and Michael Pittman? Giddy up! ⬇️
WHO IS THE TOP TARGET FOR THE COLTS?
Around the Watercooler
The latest NFL news and fantasy football analysis from our merry band of football nerds
🫡 Previewing the Washington Commanders with none other than … Austin Ekeler. And if you want to play in a charity league with him …
🦅 Are A.J. Brown & DeVonta Smith draft bargains?
🏃 Is this Olympian scared to race Tyreek Hill? The latest on their race.
💥 The bounceback is coming. Dream set up for Deebo this year.
🤔 Zero career starts…massive expectations.
🤝 The best moves of the offseason…as determined by NFL execs and scouts.
🎯 These two are great targets in Dynasty Startup drafts.
⬆️⬇️ Are these projections too high or too low?
