Ian Hartitz delivers the Arizona Cardinals Team Preview and Fantasy Football Outlook for 2025.

The Cardinals entered Year 2 of the Jonathan Gannon experience ready to make some noise with a healthy Kyler Murray and fourth overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr. Throw in the potential for Budda Baker to elevate that was previously the league's second-worst scoring defense, and something close to Wild Card contention seemed to fully be on the table.

Or not. The offense failed to catch its collective stride until the second half of the season, and a 36-30 overtime loss to the lowly Panthers in Week 16 was ultimately the last straw. Arizona's +21-point differential reflects the reality that this wasn't a bad team, but we also weren't exactly dealing with anything close to an elite squad either.

Arizona Cardinals in 2024:

  • Points per game: 23.5 (12th)
  • EPA per dropback: +0.13 (13th)
  • EPA per rush: -0.02 (8th)
  • Points per game against: 22.3 (15th)

Good news: Continuity on offense has been combined with high-priced EDGE Josh Sweat and the addition of three top-80 defensive draft picks to perhaps put the Cardinals in a position to compete in the ever-loaded NFC West.

This brings us to today's goal: Answering key (mostly fantasy-related) questions about the Cardinals ahead of their 2025 season.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Arizona Cardinals 2025 Fantasy Football And Team Preview

Does Kyler Murray still have top-five upside in fantasy land?

It looked like Murray was poised to be a regular elite QB1 in fantasy land after the first few seasons of his career, but life hasn't been quite as prolific in recent years.

Murray positional rank in fantasy points per game:

  • 2019: QB11
  • 2020: QB4
  • 2021: QB4
  • 2022: QB7
  • 2023: QB9
  • 2024: QB12

Part of the "problem" has been a dropoff in rushing production. Don't get it twisted: Murray still saw plenty of his fantasy numbers come courtesy of his work on the ground, but the counting numbers simply haven't been the same since that memorable 2020 campaign.

 

Now, Murray has spoken publicly about being "open to running more" with the knee injury more behind him, although it's tough to tell exactly how much of this we can believe. After all, last August head coach Jonathan Gannon went on the record to say Murray was "leaps and bounds" ahead of where he was in 2023. There's also the reality that Murray actually had more runs where he hit 20+ mph in his shortened 2023 (3) than he did in all of 2024 (2).

Ultimately, the return of OC Drew Petzing makes it fairly unlikely that we see a steep increase in designed runs. Murray did scramble a bit more in 2024 (6.7%) than in 2023 (5.3%), but it seems like wishful thinking to believe he'll get back to his ridiculous 2020 heights (not a short joke I swear).

That said: Murray's existing rushing upside is still pretty sweet, and there is room for positive regression in the passing TD and yards per game categories. 28 in August, it's legal for QBs to get better with experience, and we do know that 20-plus fantasy point per game upside is indeed on the table should Murray put it all together.

Kyler Murray Fantasy Football Outlook

Murray's current QB8 ADP is the same as last offseason, however he's presently going about 30 picks later overall in drafts. Accordingly, I've been happy to buy him and Justin Fields in a range of QBs like Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, and Brock Purdy. Last year was disappointing, but at this cost we're talking about the top-50 WRs, top-30 RBs, and top-five TEs usually already being off the board–that's a quality tier break and good time to buy in on upside QBs.

Why does the fantasy community keep counting out James Conner?

Not sure! The man has emerged as the RB position's version of Tyler Lockett since joining the Cardinals, continuously smashing his ADP year after year.

  • 2021: RB8 in PPR points per game, RB35 ADP
  • 2022: RB9 finish, RB15 ADP
  • 2023: RB13 finish, RB25 ADP
  • 2024: RB15 finish, RB18 ADP
  • 2025: RB22 ADP

Speaking of last season specifically, Conner was one of the game's most efficient backs based on pretty much any advanced measure you want to look at. Overall, only Josh Jacobs (97) broke more tackles than Conner (91) on the ground in 2024, while only Jahmyr Gibbs (13.6%) and Derrick Henry (11.4%) had higher explosive run rates than the eight-year veteran (11%).

Clearly the Cardinals liked what they saw, as Conner was rewarded with a two-year, $19-million extension at the end of November that locks him down in Arizona through the 2026 season.

This brings us to Trey Benson, who managed to touch the ball only 5+ times in games that were decided by double digits. In fact, Benson (6 targets) worked well behind Emari Demercado (20) on pass downs, although this feels like a Buffalo situation where Benson (Ray Davis) is the handcuff should Conner miss any time, while Demercado (Ty Johnson) likely wouldn't really see his role change. Note that neither Benson nor Demercado were active in Weeks 17-18 when Conner was sidelined last season.

Ultimately, Benson is a special athlete with theoretical three-down ability and enough size (6-foot, 216 pounds) to handle a workhorse role if given the opportunity; there's a chance we would more or less be crossing out Conner's name and simply replacing it with Benson should the opportunity arise.

Bottom line: Conner has been a borderline RB1 for four years running, yet continues to be priced more like a low-end RB2. I'm (again) a fan of buying at this price point, even if at some point Father Time will certainly be coming for the 30-year-old veteran.

Meanwhile, it feels like wishful thinking to believe Benson will find a way to earn standalone value without Conner missing time. Still, his affordable RB44 ADP is in line with fellow handcuffs like Ray Davis, Isaac Guerendo, and Tyler Allgeier; these are perfectly solid backups to polish off an RB room, even if there is risk of taking something close to a zero more weeks than not while their respective team's starter is healthy.

Will Year 2 produce high-end results for Marvin Harrison Jr.?

The artist known as Maserati Marv was a disappointment in 2024 purely relative to Harrison’s standing in the fantasy football community prior to the season, as he carried an average draft position (ADP) inside the position's top-10 overall players across the industry. Overall, Harrison's WR40 finish in PPR points per game produced a -30 dropoff compared to his WR10 ADP—only Deebo Samuel (-31), Michael Pittman (-32), and Diontae Johnson (-36) were worse among all WRs with a top-36 positional ADP (excluding injuries).

Of course, the playcalling and usage involved left quite a bit to be desired throughout the season. Harrison was the only WR with at least 25% of their targets coming on go routes in 2024 (min. 70 targets). Maybe mix in a crossing route from time to time and see what happens?

Ultimately, it was borderline shocking to see Trey McBride (147 targets) so severely out-target Harrison (116) even while playing one less game. Marv was also credited with *one* forced missed tackle all season by PFF, a verdict I agree with after rewatching all of his receptions.

There was plenty of good out there, too. Harrison made more than a few impressive contested catches, and his counting numbers are still in line with plenty of other Year 1 performances from future greats … just like his Dad! Turning 23 in August, it'd make sense if MHJ gets better in Year 2 (he's certainly been in the weight room), although the lack of change at QB or playcaller does lend some hesitation with chasing his top-15 price tag just once season after failing to outscore Quentin f*cking Johnston (with all due respect to Quentin Johnston).

As for the rest of the WRs here …

  • Michael Wilson: Actually plays very similarly to Harrison, just without the Hall of Fame bloodlines. Marv slander aside: The rising third-year talent again profiles as the No. 3 target in this offense, but even an injury to one of Kyler's top-two targets would be unlikely to produce more than WR3/4 production at best.
  • Greg Dortch: Our one true short king remains a quality threat after the catch, but unfortunately the Cardinals don't exactly view him as a full-time receiver: Dortch played more than 45% of the offense's snaps just four times last season and never after Week 6.
  • Zay Jones: Could feasibly be the No. 3 receiver ahead of Dortch after re-signing with the Cardinals on a one-year, $2.4 million deal. Still, that's not worth much in an offense only projected to throw for the 24th-most yards in the league.

Marvin Harrison Jr. Fantasy Football Outlook

It's certainly feasible that Harrison starts to live up to his "generational" billing and puts up the sort of season that makes last year a funny memory, but man: There's hardly any discount being afforded in early drafts. Early Round 3 is cheaper than the borderline Round 1 cost from last season; just realize Harrison is still being priced next to guys like Tyreek Hill, Tee Higgins, and Davante Adams—I haven't gone out of my way to draft the 2024 NFL Draft's fourth overall pick this offseason.

I'm also not too excited about investing in these complementary options. Feel free to throw a late-round dart at Wilson if trying to build a stack, but generally I'm most interested in this team's run game—and its star TE.

Does Trey McBride deserve Round 2 consideration in fantasy land?

The stud TE broke out in a major way in 2024, catching 111 of his ridiculous 147 targets for 1,146 yards … and 2 TDs.

The best part about McBride's massive Year 3 campaign? The hurdles. Definitely the hurdles.

 

The massive season has fantasy managers foaming at the mouth for more, as McBride is currently going at the Round 2-3 turn of best ball drafts alongside studs like Tee Higgins and Josh Jacobs, among others.

And guess what: I believe this is warranted. After all, McBride was the 32nd highest-scoring FLEX player last season in PPR points per game; going around pick 25 overall isn't too big of a stretch when considering the potential for some positive regression in the TD-scoring department. Unlike with Harrison, the continuity under center and at OC is a major benefit here, meaning one of the game's best players at the position should again have copious chances of proving just that.

Trey McBride Fantasy Football Outlook

I'm ranking McBride ahead of Brock Bowers because: 1.) McBride was more productive last year, and 2.) His offensive system is more stable. Now, Geno Smith is an upgrade over what Bowers was dealing with last season, but there's also not the same guarantee that he'll receive as much garbage time production in what should be a more functional offense and team under Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly.

My fourth-most drafted TE this offseason, McBride is available right at where I consider there to be a tier break at both RB and WR—it's a lot cooler if you can get him in Round 3, but a late second round pick is also reasonable.

What were the league's most lethal rushing attacks in 2024?

You can probably guess one of them based on this question's inclusion in an Arizona Cardinals team preview column …

Maybe the pass-game upside isn't quite as high as everyone would prefer, but hey, gotta love that rushing attack!

Prediction For The Cardinals 2025 Season

The Cardinals enter 2025 with an 8.5 win total—a mark which they've failed to top in eight of the last nine seasons. Unfortunately for Cardinals fans, I believe the times will be staying rough: I'm not sold enough on the continuity at hand to believe better results are awaiting on the horizon after an offseason which featured minimal big-time additions—give me the under.

As for my bold prediction: James Conner will beat his ADP for the 150th fifth year in a row and return a top-15 fantasy finish.