Bold Predictions For Week 1 Fantasy Football: Tyler Shough Top-Five Performance Incoming

It’s here, and it’s beautiful.

Week 1 of the NFL season is officially underway. Every Thursday here at Fantasy Life, I’ll provide some bold predictions for the week ahead in fantasy football. As we progress in the season, this article will feature many more under-the-radar players who can be potential fill-in options for you if bye weeks or injuries are impacting your roster.

Let’s get bold.

Fantasy Football Bold Predictions For Week 1

Tyler Shough Finishes As A Top-Five QB

Admittedly, I’d feel better about this call if the Saints had Jordyn Tyson available. But New Orleans had nothing at WR2 last season, and Shough still averaged a healthy 16.4 fantasy points per game from Week 8 on, good for the QB14 in fantasy. Shough flashed some of the things we love from a fantasy quarterback—rushing and deep passes. During that span, 20.9% of Shough’s pass attempts were 15-plus yards downfield (13th), while 12% traveled at least 20 yards. Shough was also pretty efficient during the second half of his first NFL season, ranking:

6th in completion rate (68%)
7th in passing YPG (238.4)
10th in offensive throw EPA (56.4)

Shough was solid as a passer, but also added plenty of production with his legs. From Week 8 on, he handled 8% of the designed rush attempts (1.8 per game), as well as 20% of the inside-the-five carries. Overall, Shough averaged 4.5 carries and about 20 rushing yards per game during the second half of the year.

I love this Week 1 matchup with the Lions. For starters, this game features a total of around 50 points, and we know the Saints will have to throw to keep up. Secondly, the Lions' secondary is a serious issue right now, as starting safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph both open the year on IR. This has been a man-heavy scheme for years now, and that didn’t change in Kelvin Sheppard’s first year as DC. The Lions deployed man coverage over 30% of the time last year, a top-five rate in football. I always look for quarterback rushing upside against man-centric defenses because the defenders’ backs are almost always turned when the quarterback takes off to run. Detroit has ranked top-five in rushing yards per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks in three of the last four years.

Quinshon Judkins Finishes Outside Top-30 RBs

I’m not saying to flat-out bench Judkins in Week 1.

Just make sure you temper your expectations.

We know that, barring a massive spike in pass-game usage, Judkins will be fairly game-script dependent in fantasy. Unfortunately, Cleveland opens the year as 8.5-point road underdogs against a stout Jacksonville run defense. Last year the Jaguars surrendered the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (17.9), becoming one of the top pass funnels in the league. Opposing offenses passed the ball 64% of the time against the Jaguars, the highest rate in football. Meanwhile, 72.1% of the yardage surrendered by Jacksonville came through the air, also the highest rate.

Judkins played seven games as a rookie where the Browns opened as at least touchdown underdogs. In those contests, he averaged just over 10 PPR PPG. If he doesn’t find the end zone, expect a relatively empty stat line on Sunday.

Quentin Johnston Is A Top-15 WR

The Chargers are implied to score four touchdowns this weekend, making them one of the more enticing offenses to target for Week 1. You’re starting Omarion Hampton, Ladd McConkey and Justin Herbert, but Quentin Johnston makes for a very viable FLEX play.

A home matchup with the Cardinals is an advantageous opener for Johnston and company. Last year, Arizona posted the league’s second-worst defensive success rate on plays with motion (53.2%), which is extremely notable considering the shift in offensive philosophy in Los Angeles. With Mike McDaniel now calling plays, an uptick in motion is on the horizon. After deploying motion at the snap 50% of the time in 2025, the Chargers used motion on 125 of 167 offensive plays (75%) during the preseason. McDaniel has talked about setting Johnson up in more ways to make plays after the catch, a collegiate calling card that has been abandoned so far in the NFL.

This is the spot to see results.

Arizona also missed the second-most tackles on plays with motion a season ago, so getting Johnston on crossing routes could pay dividends in this matchup. Like he did to start last season, QJ will outscore teammate Ladd McConkey in this game, while posting top-15 numbers.

Chris Godwin Outscores Emeka Egbuka

I’d say this is relatively bold, and it really comes down to the matchup.

Egbuka is set to play and draws the more difficult assignment in this spot, likely seeing coverage from Cincinnati’s top corner DJ Turner. His emergence last year helped the Bengals to allow just 44.5 yards per game to opposing WR1s, the second-lowest mark in the league.

Meanwhile, the slot was the area to attack this defense. Last year, Cincinnati coughed up the fourth-most yards per reception (12.3), second-most YAC/reception (6.2) and fourth-most touchdowns per game (0.76) to the slot, as well as the 12th-most PPR PPG. We also know Godwin is more productive when in the slot, averaging a strong 0.48 fantasy points per route run over his last 16 games, compared to 0.36 when lined up elsewhere.

As long as Egbuka is active, you are starting him. Unless your team is just crazy loaded, in which case, congrats on the title already. But Godwin also projects as a very enticing FLEX in full PPR leagues.