The 2024 Bills combined a top-three passing game with one of the most efficient rushing attacks in the league. Throw in yet another top-12 scoring defense, and it sure looked like this Josh Allen-led group finally had what it took to make it over their postseason hump.

Buffalo Bills in 2024:

  • Points per game: 30.9 (2nd)
  • EPA per dropback: +0.3 (2nd)
  • EPA per rush: +0.03 (3rd)
  • Points per game against: 21.6 (11th)

Sadly, they did not, as Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs sent the Bills home in January for the fourth time in the last five Januaries. I'm not even a Bills fan, and that hurt to type out.

2025 Buffalo Bills Team Preview

Of course, last season's pain and misery doesn't change the fact that this once again has the looks of one of the best rosters in the league. Accordingly, today's goal is to answer some (mostly fantasy-related) questions surrounding the 2025 Bills and whether or not they finally have enough juice to take down Andy Reid's evil empire when it matters.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Is Josh Allen THE QB1 in fantasy football?

He certainly has a good case for the honor. After all, Allen's career average of 22.2 fantasy points per game is the highest mark by any QB … ever.

That said, Lamar Jackson managed to snatch the fantasy crown in 2024 thanks in large part to a spike in passing numbers during a year that saw Allen average his fewest passing yards per game (219.5) since 2019. Now, the drop off in counting numbers came with career-best marks in QBR (77.3) and EPA per dropback (+0.23); the Bills' decision to embrace the run more than ever did accordingly lead to enhanced efficiency through the air. Allen also still averaged a robust 22.3 fantasy points per game (QB2) anyway, demonstrating that he was still more than capable of supplying fantasy fireworks despite averaging his fewest pass attempts per game (28.4) since his rookie season.

Still, this change in offensive philosophy under Joe Brady led to Allen being awfully reliant on his legs in fantasy land.

Highest percentage of fantasy points to come from rushing among the top-20 QBs in 2024:

  1. Jalen Hurts (45%)
  2. Jayden Daniels (35%)
  3. Josh Allen (33%)

Luckily, Allen is a mutant as a ball carrier, combining high-end speed and agility with a battering ram's mindset in his 6'5", 237-pound frame. He's averaged at least six carries per game during each and every season of his career, and the last two campaigns have produced a whopping 27 scores on the ground, thanks in large part to Buffalo's willingness to feature the tush push more than any offense outside of Philly.

Overall, Allen's seven rushing scores inside the five-yard line were tied for the eighth-highest mark in the league last year–he and Hurts (11) were the only QBs with more than four such scores in 2024!

Josh Allen 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook

The lack of any new high-end resources in the passing game (with all due respect to Joshua Palmer) makes it tough to guarantee a huge bounce-back in terms of passing counting numbers in 2025.

That said, the return of OC Joe Brady and all five starters from PFF's reigning fifth-ranked offensive line makes it reasonable to once again expect the soon-to-be 29-year-old signal-caller to finish inside the position's top-two highest-scoring QBs–even if his alien-level ceiling might be just a bit out of reach in this more conservative version of the Bills offense.

What will James Cook's encore campaign look like?

Cook had himself one helluva 2024 campaign, working as the RB11 in PPR points per game on the back of 18 TDs. The 25-year-old talent looked like one of the best players on the field while racking up 134 total yards and two scores at Arrowhead in the AFC Championship; there's little doubt that Buffalo has themselves a damn good RB leading their backfield.

That said, Cook actually wound up with 42 fewer touches in 2024 than he did in 2023 … when he finished as the RB19 in PPR points per game. Hell, Cook's receiving fantasy points per game also fell off a cliff (6.6 vs. 4.4), so how did he produce more in fantasy land last season?

The answer: Good old-fashioned TD … regression? Luck? Look, I understand it's never easy to punch the ball over the goal line against the will of 11 finely tuned athletic machines, but at the risk of being too big of a nerd: Cook's TD rate in 2024 feels awfully unsustainable.

  • Cook converted just 2.3% of his touches into scores during the 2022-23 season, 41st among 53 qualified backs.
     
  • But in 2024? Cook's 7.5% TD rate was easily first among 51 qualified backs. That mark is good for the seventh-highest mark among any RB with 200-plus touches in a season since 2000.

Again, Cook is really good at football. His average of +0.82 rushing yards *over* expected per carry ranked eighth among all RBs, right behind Bucky Irving and Jahmyr Gibbs last season. He's flashed the ability to kill defenses downfield as a receiver (even if dropped TDs have become a bad habit over the years). There's little doubt the undersized former second-round pick has proven more than capable of leading a professional backfield.

But man, Cook just became the sixth RB since 2000 to score at least 15 TDs on the ground on fewer than 210 carries. Those other RBs scored two, four, seven, three, and two times the next season. Cook leaping from four to 13 carries inside the five-yard line certainly helped matters, and we shouldn't expect him to be ignored around the goal line, but at a minimum drafters should be careful about assuming 2025 will look more like RB1 heights from 2024 as opposed to mid-tier RB2 production from 2023 when the former stretch didn't even come courtesy of a massive increase in volume!

Is James Cook A Fantasy Football Fade in 2025?

Cook finished as just the RB22 in Fantasy Life's Utilization Score, indicating his workload didn't exactly match up with the corresponding production. Throw in ongoing disgruntlement stemming from the lack of a contract extension, and I haven't exactly been lining up to draft the RB14 in early ADP. I prefer more guaranteed high-end volume from guys like Joe Mixon and Alvin Kamara, even if the best-case TD upside probably isn't quite as high.

Additionally, I love Ray Davis as a late-round handcuff; the Bills didn't add any meaningful competition to the backfield all offseason, and we saw exactly what Davis is capable of when Cook misses time courtesy of his 23-touch, 152-yard performance against the Jets last season. This is a good football player!

Will anyone truly stand out as a must-start fantasy WR here?

Our three candidates:

  • Khalil Shakir: Led the way with a solid 76-821-4 receiving line last year, continuing to provide all sorts of YAC goodness as the offense's go-to underneath option. The reigning WR37 in PPR points per game earned a four-year, $53.1 million extension this offseason, cementing him as the team's slot maven of the present and the future. This role earned him a team-high 100 targets in 15 games last season, and he's accordingly projected to again lead the team in raw pass-game opportunities in 2025.
     
  • Keon Coleman: Appeared to be coming on strong with 4-125-0 and 5-70-1 performances in Weeks 7-8, but a midseason hand/wrist injury sidelined the second-round pick for four weeks, and he would only catch 10 total passes during his final seven games upon returning. That said, Coleman sure seemed to earn Allen's trust as a jump-ball specialist (look at this shit!) and he also displayed some surprisingly fun after-the-catch ability on his way to joining some pretty damn good company to lead the position in Next-Gen Stats' YAC above expected per reception. The departures of Mack Hollins and Amari Cooper should solidify Coleman as a near every-down player in 2025.
     
  • Joshua Palmer: Took his talents to Buffalo in free agency thanks to a three-year, $29 million deal. The case for Palmer is simple: He's a plus route-runner capable of separating and winning vs. man coverage on the outside, something the Bills really didn't have in their offense without Stefon Diggs last season. Palmer's career average of 39.4 receiving yards per game is a bit underwhelming considering he had the luxury of playing with a #good QB in Justin Herbert, but his skill-set plus contract should cement him as a starter in three-WR sets this season (which is rare to see at his low ADP).

After that, the Bills boast a LETHAL … 2021 … depth chart headlined by the likes of Curtis Samuel, Elijah Moore, and Laviska Shenault. While there are likely still some truthers out there for each … *sheepishly raises hand* … the dollars and draft capital afforded to Shakir, Coleman, and Palmer will most likely make each fairly consistent full-time players in 2025.

Which Bills WR Can You Trust In Fantasy?

Shakir remains the best bet in full-PPR formats and is plenty capable of returning WR3 value at his WR4 price tag, thanks to his status as Josh Allen's projected target leader.

I also don't mind Coleman or Palmer at their respective affordable price tags—what if a dropoff from the defense and/or natural progression leads to Allen's passing numbers getting more in line with what we saw during the 2020-2023 seasons?

Coleman, in particular, is someone whom I've made a habit of attacking in the later rounds of best ball drafts—he just turned 22 years old and could be a rich man's version of Gabe Davis when it's all said and done.

Could 2025 finally be the year Dalton Kincaid makes a leap?

The Bills seemingly used the 25th selection of the 2023 NFL Draft on Kincaid to get Allen his version of Travis Kelce. While Kincaid's rookie campaign didn't exactly produce consistent fireworks, his 73-673-2 receiving line was still a solid starting point, and the team's lack of a true No. 1 WR in the aftermath of the Diggs trade had many believing it was the second-year TE's time to lead the passing game.

Or not.

Mid-season shoulder and knee injuries didn't help matters, but things weren't going all that great even before health became an issue. The time he pointed at the Lions defenders was cool and all, but 3-47-0, 1-11-0, and 2-13-0 receiving lines in the playoffs "highlighted" by a season-ending drop make it awfully difficult to be overly high on the 25-year-old talent ahead of 2025.

Now, Kincaid's underlying efficiency numbers weren't terrible–he actually demanded targets at an elite rate–but even more of the same won't be enough to save the day in future seasons if he can't even fully displace Dawson Knox from the starting lineup.

Kincaid among 31 TEs with 50-plus targets in 2024:

  • PFF receiving grade: 76.0 (8th)
  • Yards per route run: 1.62 (9th)
  • Targets per route run: 27.2% (2nd)
  • Passer rating when targeted: 89.4 (23rd)

To be fair, Kincaid's uncatchable target rate reflects the reality that it wasn't all his fault. Perhaps comeback szn will be in the air in 2025, although it's more of a leap of faith to assume he'll completely displace Knox as the featured full-time TE than something we should actively expect inside this spread-out passing game.

Is Dalton Kincaid A Late-Round Sleeper?

Kincaid's high targets per route run rate and plus offensive environment make him tough to drop too far down the ranks; he's ranked between TE12 and TE15 from all of our rankers at Fantasy Life.

That's a fine enough price tag for best ballers in need of multiple players at the position, but I prefer the superior target ceiling of guys like Jake Ferguson and Evan Engram at cost when looking to simply secure one TE for the re-draft squad.

What teams have produced the most consistent defenses in recent years?

Well, you could certainly argue the Bills! After all, nobody has allowed fewer points per game than Buffalo (19.6) across the last five seasons.

There is some turnover to worry about: EDGE Von Miller and CB Rasul Douglas are both still sitting on the open market at the time of this writing. Still, the d-line could arguably be improved after Buffalo threw dollars at Joey Bosa, Michael Hoecht, and Larry Ogunjobi.

Bottom line: If I were a gambling man (I am), I would bet on the Bills to again work as one of the league's more productive defenses–they remain a quality DST pick for those into that kind of thing.

Bills 2025 Prediction and Hot Take

The Bills lead the NFL in points per game over the past five years while simultaneously allowing the fewest points per game. Lack of deep postseason success aside: This has clearly been one of the very best teams in the league; it'd make a lot of sense if they FINALLY make it over the gargantuan Mahomes-sized hump one of these days.

I'm going to go out on a (slight) limb and say that this season will, in fact, be that day. Give me over 11.5 wins and yes, a Lombardi Trophy for Bills Mafia.

My fantasy bold call is that Keon Coleman catches double-digit touchdowns and returns a top-24 finish in fantasy land.