The Mike McCarthy era is over in Dallas after producing a pretty great 49-35 regular season record, but unfortunately just a 1-3 mark in the postseason. The promotion of offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will keep some level of continuity in the franchise; just realize the times they are a-changin' in Big D.

Then again, maybe some changes are warranted after the Cowboys looked like anyone's idea of a bad football team last season. Losing Dak Prescott for the second half of the year certainly didn't help matters, but yeah: Yikes!

Dallas Cowboys in 2024:

  • Points per game: 18.9 (25th)
  • EPA per dropback: -0.7 (29th)
  • EPA per rush: -0.13 (26th)
  • Points per game against: 27.5 (31st)

Cowboys 2025 Team Preview

Here's to hoping improved health and a handful of key offseason additions are enough to enhance the talent level of the Jim's and Joe's involved, because otherwise it might once again be up to Mr. Prescott to pull his best Greg Jennings impression and put this team on his back.

What exactly is Dak Prescott's fantasy ceiling in the year 2025?

Dak turns 32 in July and is coming off a season-ending hamstring injury. This comes after missing 17 combined games during the 2020 to 2022 seasons due to thumb, calf, and shoulder injuries in addition to a brutal dislocated ankle.

Unfortunately, the injuries have taken a bit of a toll on Prescott as a rusher over the years. Overall, Dak averaged 19 rushing yards per game during the first five seasons of his career, but just 11.8 since that aforementioned brutal ankle injury. This has accordingly led to a bit more inconsistency in his counting numbers in recent seasons.

 

Of course, these later years have also coincided with a dropoff in available weaponry. Just look at the Cowboys' rank in "Supporting Cast Rating" which takes every squad's average team PFF rush, receiving, pass blocking, and run blocking grades (everything except passing):

Cowboys rank in Supporting Cast Rating:

  • 2021: 1st
  • 2022: 10th
  • 2023: 8th
  • 2024: 29th

While the team didn't make many upgrades to speak of during free agency, the trade for George Pickens adds a (volatile) upgrade at WR2, and drafting Tyler Booker with the 12th overall pick should help ease the offensive line transition in the post-Zack Martin era. It was probably about time for some turnover anyway, considering the Cowboys finished 2024 with PFF's 25th-ranked offensive line.

Dak Prescott Fantasy Football Value for 2025

Dak isn't getting any younger; he'll be anywhere from the league's fifth to the seventh oldest starting QB by the time Week 1 rolls around. The addition of Pickens certainly helps, but arguably only because the previous bar was so low.

Luckily, Prescott isn't being treated as his high-end former self in the fantasy market (early ADP: QB16)—he's firmly in play as a potential late-round gem at the position in the same tier as guys like Trevor Lawrence, Drake Maye, C.J. Stroud, and Tua Tagovailoa. This sort of depth is a major reason why I'm a fan of deploying the first (elite dual-threat options at the top of the draft) or last (this tier) strategy at the position this season.

Are we seriously going to try to make Javonte Williams a thing?

Apparently! One of just 10 teams with under $10 million devoted to their backfield in 2025 dollars, the Cowboys were expected to be major players in the draft's RB market … until they weren't. Maybe fifth-rounder Jaydon Blue (pick 149) or seventh-rounder Phil Mafah (239) wind up being the exception to the rule that draft capital is king for predicting fantasy football success, but the lack of resources devoted to the group last April reflects the reality that it might be time to take Williams a bit more seriously as the potential lead back here.

To his credit, Williams was electric before his brutal 2022 knee injury, but sadly, it's been a while since we've seen that version of the former 35th overall pick. Times were particularly tough in 2024 despite running behind PFF's second-ranked offensive line.

Williams among 36 RBs with 125-plus carries in 2024:

  • Yards per carry: 3.7 (tied for No. 32)
  • Yards over expected per carry: -0.6 (No. 35)
  • Yards after contact per carry: 2.4 (No. 35)
  • Tackles avoided per carry: 15.1% (No. 29)
  • Explosive rush rate: 7.2% (No. 26)
  • PFF rush grade: 60.5 (No. 36)

Still only 25 years old, perhaps Williams will simply be a better, healthier version of his former self in a new environment, although this seems like quite a leap of faith and dissimilar from 2024 stud bounce-backs like Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs, who went from ROUGH offensive environments to objectively awesome ones.

And then there's Sanders, who is "only" 28, but also ranks 55th among 59 qualified RBs in yards per carry over the past two seasons. Williams ranks … last in that sample. The ex-Eagle veteran does have the Panthers' sad excuse for an offensive environment to blame, although the difference in dollars thrown at him (1 year, $1.34 million) compared to Javonte (1 year, $3 million) indicates the potential expectations at hand.

This brings us to Mr. Blue, who might have as good a chance of earning a real day-one role as any day-three RB. Fantasy Life's Thor Nystrom comped Blue to Matt Breida before the draft, which feels right considering the archetype of the speedy, pass-catching talent out of Texas. This sentiment was echoed by The Athletic's Dane Brugler in his "The Beast" scouting report:

"Blue moves with electricity in his feet to make defenders miss in a phone booth and is at his best as a pass catcher on screens, angles, and wheels (No. 1 among FBS running backs with six receiving touchdowns). An undersized back, he is inconsistent working through traffic and must improve his ball security at the next level (fumbled once every 25 times he touched the ball in 2024). Overall, Blue is a threat to make a house call at any point, especially as a receiving weapon out of the backfield, but NFL scouts say he may need time to learn what it takes to be a professional. His dynamic talent can upgrade a backfield."

How To Value Cowboys RBs In 2025 Fantasy Football

I'm mostly selling the idea of either Williams or Sanders re-inventing themselves in Dallas this season, due to the reality that it's hardly a given that this scoring offense or offensive line makes a major leap back into the league's top-10 units.

This makes Blue the chip worth betting on, ESPECIALLY considering his explosive pass-catching profile. I wouldn't get too carried away, but Blue deserves to be in a similar conversation as guys like Bhayshul Tuten in the RB4 range of FLEX with benefit handcuffs.

What is the ceiling for George Pickens in this offense?

With all due respect to Lamb, there shouldn't be too much concern about his 2025 projection. After all, we're talking about THE WR1 in PPR points per game (20.8) over the past two seasons–and that's with Cooper Rush starting eight games in 2024. The 26-year-old talent is certifiably good at the game and only deserves to go behind Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson at the position in 2025 drafts of all shapes and sizes.

And then there's Pickens, who just turned 24 in March following a relatively underwhelming 2024 campaign that featured him converting 59 receptions into 900 yards and just three scores. While his status as Pittsburgh's clear-cut WR1 often resulted in all sorts of defensive attention going his way, the three-year veteran usually made on-field headlines for the wrong, yet wildly entertaining, reasons.

Still, this shouldn't distract from the fact that Pickens has proven capable of doing some seriously awesome things on the football field:

  • The 6'3", 200-pound talent plays even bigger than that, combining tantalizing contested-catch ability with sneaky-solid speed after the catch. Pickens' highlight film speaks for itself: The man knows how to make big plays.
     
  • Speaking of splash plays, the Georgia product has averaged a robust 16.3 yards per reception and 9.7 yards per target since entering the league–marks that rank seventh and 11th among 105 qualified WRs.
     
  • The fit is also rather great inside this Cowboys offense, considering Lamb is usually deployed from the friendly confines of the slot. Pickens should make himself right at home as the offense's X receiver instead of, you know, Jonathan f*cking Mingo.

Now, Mike Tomlin's track record of keeping knucklehead receivers in line before watching them fail for all the wrong reasons elsewhere is certainly troubling, but to Pickens' credit, he's never been in any serious real-life trouble and has played in 48 of a potential 51 games since getting drafted back in 2022.

All in all, the Cowboys profile as a fantastic real-life partner for Pickens as long as all parties involved are able to simply focus on playing ball—and the match also has the potential to go quite well in fantasy land. Sure, Russell Wilson's moon balls made for some nice connections last season, but Pickens has otherwise been forced to largely deal with one mediocre QB after another. Nobody is exactly mistaking Dak for the best QB in the world; just realize he played at a legit MVP level in 2023, AKA the last time he was healthy for a full season.

CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens Fantasy Rankings for 2025

Lamb is my fifth-ranked overall player in fantasy; I'm only drafting the top two RBs and WRs ahead of him in non-SUPERFLEX formats.

Meanwhile, it's tough to move Pickens too far up in the ranks due to the presence of more clear-cut No. 1 options like Courtland Sutton, DK Metcalf, and Calvin Ridley, but I've upgraded the now ex-Steeler from WR38 up to WR31 ahead of guys like Rome Odunze and Jerry Jeudy, among others.

Is Jake Ferguson THE late-round TE of 2025?

The artist known as A$AP Ferg is coming off a relatively disappointing 2024 campaign (59-494-0) following an impressive 2023 (71-761-5) in his first season as the full-time starter after Dalton Schultz took his talents to Houston in free agency. The initial campaign demonstrated some serious upside: Ferguson's monstrous three-TD explosion against the Packers in the 2023 playoffs is good for the second-highest single-game fantasy boom (37.3 PPR points) during the last two seasons. The Seahawk slayer earned an impressive 102 targets in his last fully healthy season with Dak Prescott–the second most on the Cowboys behind only Lamb.

That latter health point is my best explanation for why the 26-year-old talent struggled to get much going in the box score last season: Ferguson suffered a Grade 2 MCL sprain in Week 1 and was later concussed in Week 11.

This means we only had a six-game sample of Ferguson actually getting to play with Dak, a stretch in which he racked up the fifth-most targets among all TEs and (you guessed it) second-most on the Cowboys period.

I'm not gonna sit here and say Ferguson is poised to put up a top-three season, but we are just 12 months removed from him sporting a preseason TE9 ADP mostly because he had just finished as the TE8 on a per-game basis (including playoffs). Prescott has tossed 30-plus TDs in each of his last three seasons in which he started 16-plus games; Ferguson's name might as well be next to TD regression in the dictionary after racking up a league-high 86 targets without a score last season.

Jake Ferguson Fantasy Football Outlook for 2025

This is EXACTLY the sort of bet late-round TE diehards should be looking to make.

Ferguson is my TE11 (highest among the Fantasy Life consensus rankers) and someone I will happily continue to buy at his present TE15 ADP.

Did the Cowboys make an honest effort to improve their offensive line?

Let's find out! Last year's starters were as follows:

Now, Guyton and Martin both missed time with injury and should be given some slack for their respective performances. Still, the reality that the future Hall of Famer is being replaced by a (first-round) rookie doesn't exactly guarantee an immediate upgrade (as awesome as Tyler Booker's outlook on football is).

But yeah: The Cowboys are basically hoping that improved health and continuity will turn this rather bad group into something better. Overall, Dallas was just 31st in yards before contact per carry last season, and their low pressure rate allowed mark comes with the caveat that the pressure was arriving awfully quickly.

 

Bottom line: Good luck!

Dallas Cowboys Prediction for 2025

The Cowboys' 7.5 win total is on par with teams like the Falcons, Jaguars, and Colts. The freaking Patriots (8.5) are thought of higher than Jerry Jones' squad entering 2025 for crying out loud!

While I'm not mistaking Prescott and company for real contenders ahead of 2025, there's still enough blue-chip talent on both sides of the football for me to believe that they can win at least eight games. Give me the over on 7.5, and my bold fantasy-specific prediction for the Cowboys is that Pickens will catch double-digit touchdowns and earn himself a LOT of money ahead of next offseason.