Dan Campbell's fighting Lions combined a franchise-best 15-2 regular season record with an NFL-high +222 point differential. This was a damn good football team widely considered the favorite to win the NFC.

Or not.

Five turnovers and an injury-ravaged defense led to a 45-31 loss to the Commanders, spoiling the Lions' quest for their first-ever Super Bowl appearance.

While the ending was painful, that shouldn't distract from the fact that last year's Lions were still a force to be reckoned with. 

Detroit Lions in 2024:

  • Points per game: 33.2 (1st)
  • EPA per dropback: +0.27 (3rd)
  • EPA per rush: +0.02 (5th)
  • Points per game against: 20.1 (7th)

However, unfortunate top-of-the-food-chain problems are now impacting Detroit, as coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn took their talents to Chicago and New York. Good news: The bulk of the roster's key contributors remain intact, and just a bit better luck from the Injury Gods could (again) make this season's edition of the Lions better than ever.

This brings us to today's goal: Answering key (mostly fantasy-related) questions about the Lions ahead of their 2025 season.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Lions 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook

How much upside does Jared Goff really have in fantasy football land?

Goff is fresh off his best regular season ever, based on pretty much any efficiency stat you want to look at. The version was even better than the guy we saw put up all kinds of big numbers alongside Sean McVay in Los Angeles back in the day.

The counting numbers were pretty sweet too: Goff's 4,629 yards and 37 TDs—err, 38 including that TD CATCH!—were good for QB7 status in fantasy points per game.

Here's the only problem with assuming a high-end encore in 2025: This Lions offense, like Goff, has been awesome the last three years, but pocket passers who run as little as the 30-year-old franchise QB need to be almost perfect through the air in order to contend with the dual-threat aliens in the position's top five.

Consider:

Bottom line: It's not like many expect Goff to drastically fall off or anything, it's just that Goff's QB13 price tag in early fantasy drafts is a steep price to pay when similar statue-esque archetypes with at least some proven high-end fantasy production like C.J. Stroud, Tua, and Stafford are available multiple rounds later on average.

Does Jahmyr Gibbs deserve to be THE RB1 in fantasy?

Gibbs' combination of dominance as a rusher and receiver is largely unmatched at the position.

The rising third-year talent's ceiling is admittedly a bit capped as long as David Montgomery is healthy, but even then, the efficiency and big-play ability are too great to really care all that much.

Overall, Gibbs worked as the RB5 in PPR points per game (18.7) in Weeks 1-15 with a healthy D-Mont last season … and THE RB1 (32.6!) in Weeks 16-18 as the team's undisputed lead back. Remember when folks were worried about that August hamstring injury?

And Monty? The man has been a model of consistency when it comes to beating his affordable ADP ever since joining the Lions in 2023.

  • 2023: RB15 in PPR points per game, RB31 in preseason ADP 
  • 2024: RB16 in PPR points per game, RB21 in preseason ADP

Even the pass-game usage is a bit underrated: Did you know Montgomery (36-341-0 receiving) scored more PPR points per game as a receiver (5) than Saquon Barkley (4.55), Josh Jacobs (4.48), and James Cook (4.36) last season? Bucky Irving barely edged him out at 5.07! Madness!

Bottom line: The only thing preventing Gibbs from being THE RB1 in fantasy is the reality that fellow ultra-talented RBs Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson don't have a "Knuckles" to split touches with. Still, the floor/ceiling combo is hardly anything to scoff at considering the proven explosiveness and top-five scoring offense: Gibbs is my sixth-ranked overall player and someone I'm comfortable taking ahead of all WRs not named Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, or CeeDee Lamb.

As for Monty: He continues to look like a rock-solid value at his low-end RB2 price tag, although it's tough to outright rank him ahead of guys like Alvin Kamara, Chuba Hubbard, and James Conner, who won't have as steep of competition for touches. Still, *knocks on wood*, don't underrate Montgomery's own potential for fireworks should Gibbs ever be forced to miss any action: He racked up 59 combined carries and targets, 270 total yards, and four TDs in his only two games without Gibbs in 2023–good for PPR RB2 and RB5 finishes.

How often does one team produce multiple top-24 fantasy WRs?

Our one true Sun God averaged more EPA per target (+0.67) and posted the position's highest catch rate over expected (+11.7%) among all WRs with at least 65 targets last season (Next-Gen Stats). The WR10, WR4, and WR4 in PPR points per game over the past three seasons: You know St. Brown is a locked-in top-eight WR in fantasy, I know St. Brown is a locked-in top-eight WR in fantasy, we all know St. Brown is a locked-in top-eight WR in fantasy.

The better question is just what we can expect from Williams following his breakout 2024 campaign. 1,062 total yards and eight scores in just 15 games led to 14.2 PPR points per contest–good for WR24 status. The fact the 2022 NFL Draft's 12th overall pick accomplished all of this on just 91 targets is awfully impressive: Only A.J. Brown (84), Mike Williams (90), and George Kittle (90) have managed to crack the century mark with fewer pass-game opportunities since targets began being tracked in 1992.

As Eleanor Roosevelt once said, “America is all about speed. Hot, nasty, badass speed.”

The team's relative lack of additional target competition at WR should continue to result in St. Brown and Williams receiving the lion's share of work. This brings us to the key question: Just how often do teams like the 2024 Lions manage to produce multiple top-24 WRs in the same season?

Answer: More than you think! Specifically, an average of 5 teams per season have enabled multiple top-24 WRs in PPR points per game over the last decade of action. Shoutout to the 2018 Rams and 2020 Buccaneers as the only teams with three.

Bottom line: St. Brown continues to have one of the highest floors at the position thanks to his mind-meld chemistry with Goff in an elite scoring offense more than willing to flow its passing game through him. Barring a complete collapse without the help of Ben Johnson, he should once again return top-10 production at the position—it's hard to argue with a profile like that in Round 1 in drafts of most shapes and sizes.

As for Williams, his early WR27 price tag seems about right for his boom-or-bust WR3 profile. If things go as swimmingly as 2024, another borderline WR2 finish seems firmly on the table; just realize expecting TOO big of a boom for the hopeful No. 2 target in this run-first offense might be wishful thinking—I'm more of a fan of clear-cut No. 1 WRs like Courtland Sutton, DK Metcalf, Zay Flowers, and Calvin Ridley at a similar cost.

Don't expect any other Detroit WRs to garner fantasy relevance without an injury or suspension next year. With that said, shoutout to Tim Patrick for holding down the No. 3 job last year after back-to-back brutal season-ending Summer injuries. Hell yeah!

Is Sam LaPorta a good bet for a post-hype bounceback?

Last year was a disappointment for LaPorta mostly just relative to his preseason fantasy hype, as the second-year talent was typically the first TE off the board in drafts of most shapes and sizes after managing to snatch Travis Kelce's overall TE1 fantasy crown as a rookie.

Unfortunately, LaPorta failed to replicate that magic for the vast majority of the 2024 regular season. While a strong end to the year helped him post a respectable TE9 finish in PPR points per game, it's likely that many of the fantasy managers who drafted the Iowa product in the first place were no longer in a position to overly benefit from the performances.

LaPorta PPR points per game:

  • Weeks 1-7: 7.1 (TE22)
  • Weeks 8-14: 11.3 (TE11)
  • Weeks 15-DR: 16.2 (TE2)

Early-season hamstring and ankle injuries didn't help matters, and LaPorta ultimately wound up averaging just 5.2 targets per game after going for 7.1 as a rookie. However, it might behoove fantasy managers (dynasty faithful in particular) to not freak out too much, considering we're still talking about the sixth-best TE ever in PPR points per game during their first two seasons.

Bottom line: LaPorta is all four of our consensus rankers' TE4, although the big-three options at the position are all going inside our top-43 overall picks … and LaPorta is going as the 58th overall player off the board. This disparity reflects the dropoff from legit No. 1 pass-game options Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and George Kittle next to everyone else at the position.

Nobody needs more than one hand to count the number of TEs you'd rather have in fantasy land this year, but the three-plus round difference in cost between LaPorta and guys with higher target projections like Evan Engram and David Njoku has usually resulted in me passing on the Lions TE1 in more early fantasy drafts than not.

What has been the best offensive line in football over the last few years?

You can certainly make a good argument that it's the Lions!

  • Pass blocking: The Lions have allowed the ninth-longest average time to pressure (2.56 seconds) and 10th-lowest pressure rate overall (32.8%) during the past three seasons.
     
  • Run blocking: Lions RBs have averaged a robust 1.7 yards before contact per carry in this span. This is particularly impressive considering the usual top teams on this list (Eagles, Ravens, Bills) mightily benefit from the gravity of their respective dual-threat QBs, something Mr. Goff obviously doesn't offer.

Overall, the fine folks at PFF have consistently provided favorable reports on the Lions' end-of-season ranking from 2022 (8th), to 2023 (2nd), and into 2024 (4th). Don't expect too much change from a group returning four of five starters.

Detroit Lions Prediction for 2025

It's curious that the Lions' 10.5 win total places them a tier below the likes of the Bills, Eagles, Chiefs, and Ravens, who are the only teams sitting at 11.5 ahead of next season. While the first-place schedule isn't ideal, more success on offense and just a bit better injury luck on defense should lead to more high-end results.

Give me OVER 10.5 wins, and my bold fantasy prediction is that both Gibbs and Montgomery manage to turn in top-12 seasons in half-PPR points per game.