As I'm writing this article, it's only the middle of June.

It's early.

And yet, there are still people drafting right now on various fantasy football platforms across the industry.

What a glorious time to be alive.

For all you sicko degenerates obsessing about NFL depth charts and voluntary OTA beat reports in the dog days of summer, here are some of my favorite draft steals based on their current Underdog ADPs (per our fantasy football ADP tool).

You can also see where our staff ranks these players for the season with our 2025 fantasy football rankings in our Rankings Hub.

Fantasy Football Values Relative To 2025 ADP

QB Tyler Shough (Saints)

  • ADP: QB31

I doubt that Tyler Shough's ADP will notably rise as we approach the season, but he feels as if he is currently priced near his floor, and I'm probably more bullish on his ceiling than most analysts are.

Let's start with this: I expect him to be the Week 1 starter. QB Derek Carr's retirement has opened the door for Shough to earn the No. 1 job—and all he needs to do is beat out and then hold off Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener for a season.

Last year, Rattler had a 5.1 AY/A and went 0-6 as a starter; Haener, 5.2 AY/A and 0-1. Neither guy is good enough to be an NFL starter, and, maybe more importantly, if the Saints and GM Mickey Loomis had liked what they saw out of Rattler or Haener in 2024, then there's a decent chance they wouldn't have selected Shough in Round 2 (No. 40 overall) in 2025.

But the team did draft Shough, and it did invest significant draft capital in him, so he has a good shot to get the full season to prove himself.

Will Shough be good?

I don't know. No one does.

He played in college for seven years, and he turns 26 in September. He's unlike any other prospect in recent history. Plus, the Saints could be bad: They're dead last with +30000 odds to win the Super Bowl (DraftKings).

Even so, I like his situation. He has a good playcaller in new offensive HC Kellen Moore. He has good pass catchers in WRs Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Brandin Cooks, TE Juwan Johnson, and RB Alvin Kamara. He has a good divisional schedule against the Panthers, Buccaneers, and Falcons, all of which allowed top-12 marks in completion rate and yards passing last season. And he has an ideal playing environment indoors at the Caesars Superdome.

On top of that, Shough has the athleticism (4.63-second 40-yard dash at 6-5, 219 lbs.) to be a better-than-expected scrambler.

If he underperforms his ADP, he won't do so by much.

If he outperforms his ADP, he could be this year what Bo Nix was last year.

Shough is one of my low-end Freedman's favorites for all formats, and he's the QB25 in my season-long 2025 projections (available with a FantasyLife+ subscription).

 

RB Aaron Jones (Vikings)

  • ADP: RB28 

By NFL and positional standards, Aaron Jones is ancient. He turns 31 years old in December.

But last year—his first with the Vikings—he averaged 90.9 scrimmage yards per game and played the entire season.

At some point, Jones is likely to experience the unfortunate effects of age, but he has managed to hold off his dotage until now, and based on what we saw out of him in 2024, I don't see why 2025 should be the year he falls off.

Since 2018 (Jones' second NFL season), these have been his median numbers.

  • Games: 15
  • Carries: 201
  • Targets: 63
  • Scrimmage Yards: 1,459
  • TDs: 9

Jones will theoretically face more backfield competition this year after the Vikings traded for No. 2 RB Jordan Mason and signed him to a two-year deal with $7.23M guaranteed, but Jones throughout his career has often shared the workload with other backs—and Mason has never been more than a committee member and spot starter. I doubt he will challenge Jones more than Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon did with the 2018-23 Packers.

And the work Mason siphons away from Jones might be outweighed by 1) the fact that the Vikings have likely improved their offensive line with the additions of LG Donovan Jackson, C Ryan Kelly, and RG Will Fries and 2) the possibility that the Vikings—with second-year QB J.J. McCarthy (zero NFL starts)—might funnel more of the offense through the backfield this year.

With all this in mind, I believe Jones is priced near his floor.

WR Tyreek Hill (Dolphins)

  • ADP: WR16 

Earlier this summer, I met up with Dwain McFarland (our Director of Analytics) in person to go over our respective projection sets, and Tyreek Hill was one of the players we discussed the most.

At the time, I had Hill projected as my WR3. Now, I more moderately have him as the WR11 in our 2025 fantasy football rankings. 

Did I capitulate too much? Maybe—but given Hill's ADP, I'm still significantly ahead of the market on him, and I expect that to be the case throughout the offseason.

To me, the market is too aggressively assuming Hill's demise.

Last year, he had 7.8 yards per target. For Hill, that's a down number, but it's not unprecedented.

In Hill's final season with the Chiefs and QB Patrick Mahomes, he had an identical 7.8 yards per target … and then he was traded for five draft picks to the Dolphins, who saw him pile up an obnoxious 3,509 yards receiving in 2022-23 with an elite 10.3 yards per target.

Clearly, a mark of 7.8 yards per target does not necessarily mean that the end of Hill's career is nigh, especially since he averaged 7.1 yards per target as a rookie in 2016, when he broke out as one of the league's most explosive playmakers.

Might he be on the downward slope of his career? Yes. It's possible.

But just last year, Hill was a top-three fantasy pick … and then he suffered a wrist injury that plagued him for the entire season, and QB Tua Tagovailoa missed six games … and now Hill is available in Round 3.

Come on. This is what a buy-low opportunity looks like.

Even with Hill's down 2024 campaign, he, over the past three seasons, has still amassed 4,568 yards and 27 TDs on 464 targets and 21 carries while missing only one game.

With the Dolphins, Hill has averaged 9.6 yards per target; his career, 9.5.

If he manages to approach those numbers this year, he'll smash his ADP.

WR DK Metcalf (Steelers)

  • ADP: WR26 

Throughout his six-year career, DK Metcalf has exhibited a high and solid floor. Never has he had fewer than 900 yards receiving and five TDs.

And over the past half-decade, he's had these median marks.

  • Games: 16
  • Targets: 129
  • Receptions: 75
  • Receiving Yards: 1,048
  • TDs: 8

Now, Metcalf has the least target competition of his career: No Tyler Lockett, no Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and no George Pickens. He might be the only guy on his team with 100-plus targets this year.

And now that Aaron Rodgers is with the Steelers, there's the possibility that Metcalf could have the best QB of his career throwing him the ball.

Metcalf's upside outweighs his downside.

TE David Njoku (Browns)

  • ADP: TE12 

Over the past two seasons, David Njoku has been a borderline-elite producer when starting QB Deshaun Watson (Achilles) has been out. Since 2023, Njoku has 107-1,085-9 receiving on 167 targets in 18 games without Watson (including playoffs).

And fortunately for Njoku (and Browns fans), Watson is all but guaranteed not to play for the Browns in 2025, and the team is unsettled at WR behind Jerry Jeudy, so there's a good chance that Njoku could once again be the team's No. 2 receiver.

On top of that, Njoku is reunited with QB Joe Flacco, who relied regularly on him in his abbreviated 2023 CPOY stint and is likely to open the season as the starter. In their six games together a couple of years ago, Njoku had 37-483-4 receiving on 56 targets and a position-best 9.5 Utilization Score (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

If Njoku can approach the non-Watson usage he's enjoyed over the past two seasons, he could finish the season as a top-three TE.