With the NFL Draft finished and landing spots revealed, let's dive into my fantasy football rookie rankings and tiers for 2025.

If you want to get a sense of how early rookie drafts are shaking out, check out our latest dynasty rookie mock draft.

TIER 1 ROOKIE RANKINGS FOR FANTASY FOOTBALL

1. Ashton Jeanty | RB | Raiders

  • Rookie Super Model Rating: 91 (3rd All-Time)
  • NFL Draft Pick: 6
  • 2025 Outlook: High-End RB1  
  • Multi-Year Outlook: High-End RB1

 

Jeanty is a do-it-all back who averaged 185 rushing yards per game in his final season at Boise State. The year before, he showed off his high-end receiving chops with 48 receiving yards per contest. His underlying advanced career stats back up the big dual-threat production.

  • PFF Run Grade: 94.8 (99th percentile)
  • Yards After Contact: 4.8 per attempt (80th)
  • Missed Tackles Forced: 0.38 per attempt (95th)
  • Best Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt: (92nd)
  • Best Target Share: 16%

If you aren't into big production and consider yourself more of a film lover (we should love both like the Rookie Super Model—it's more predictive), Jeanty posted the highest film rating (100) in the history of the model.

Jeanty is the third-best running back prospect since 2017 in the Rookie Super Model. He joins a list of five backs to rate 85 or higher in the model, reaching rare air.

That group averaged 19.3 fantasy points per game over their first three seasons, with 100% posting a top-six fantasy finish by Year 3.

Expect the Boise State product to immediately take over a Raiders backfield, whose top challenger is 33-year-old Raheem Mostert. Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly have shown a propensity to pound the rock, and Jeanty will be their weapon of choice. 

Jeanty currently ranks as the RB3 in my PPR projections with 16.3 points per game. Using our new ceiling-floor logic, which you will hear more about soon (get hyped), Jeanty's boom scenario comes in at 22.5 points per game—he has a realistic shot at RB1 overall as a rookie.

Bottom Line: Jeanty should be the 1.01 in all rookie draft formats, including superflex, and is worth a mid to late Round 1 pick in best ball and season-long leagues.

TIER 2 FANTASY FOOTBALL ROOKIE RANKINGS

2. Omarion Hampton | RB | Chargers

  • Rookie Super Model Rating: 79 (10th All-Time)
  • NFL Draft Pick: 22
  • 2025 Outlook: Borderline RB2 with Late-Season RB1 Upside
  • Multi-Year Outlook: Low-End RB1 with Mid-Range RB1 Upside

 

Hampton offers the size-speed combination that NFL teams covet, and the Chargers couldn't resist themselves in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. Hampton's 86 speed score rating is the 11th-highest mark for an RB in the Super Model since 2017.

While the model views Hampton as more of an early Round 2 pick, it aligns with the Chargers' view that the Tar Heel is the second-best back in the class (even without draft capital). Outside of his speed score (111.7), there isn't an elite aspect to Hampton's game, but he checks all the boxes as a competent runner and good-enough profile as a receiver out of the backfield. No team is going to center its passing attack around Hampton, but he is competent enough to play on passing downs and collect a 10-12% target share.

While Najee Harris could stand in Hampton's way for passing down work in Year 1, there isn't another high-end passing-down option on the team. There is a realistic path to 250-plus touches for Hampton as a rookie, and that could balloon to 300-plus in his second year with Harris, only on a one-year deal.

It's important to note that it's much harder to post a rating in the 90s, like Jeanty's, because teams rarely use early Round 1 draft capital on running backs. So, while McMillan and Hunter rate in the 90s, Hampton still belongs in this tier with a rating of 79, which is very high for a running back. The 10 previous prospects to rate in Hampton's range have been overwhelmingly successful, securing a top-12 finish by year three 73% of the time.

  • Top-six finish: 27%
  • Top-12 finish: 73%
  • Top-24 finish: 91%

Bottom Line: Hampton should be a top-four selection in rookie drafts, ranging anywhere from second to fourth overall. In season-long formats, consider him a borderline RB2 with RB1 upside by fantasy championship time.

3. Tetairoa McMillan | WR | Panthers

  • Rookie Super Model Rating: 92 (7th All-Time)
  • NFL Draft Pick: 8
  • 2025 Outlook: Borderline WR2
  • Multi-Year Outlook: Mid-Range WR2 with WR1 Upside

 

Note: McMillan is my WR1, but you will notice that the Super Model ranks him as the WR2, one point behind Travis Hunter.

McMillan earned a full-time role (96% route participation) as a true freshman at Arizona and never looked back. He bogarted 30% and 34% of Arizona's targets in his final two years, parlaying his opportunities into 2,712 receiving yards (108 per game) and 18 touchdowns (0.7 per game. His 88 production rating in the Super Model ranks No. 1 in the class and ties for the 10th-highest since 2018.

His film rating, powered by Lance Zierlein's NFL.com prospect grades, is a tier below guys like Malik Nabers and Ja'Marr Chase, but on par with Drake London, Garrett Wilson, and Chris Olave. There are concerns about his releases and ability to separate from NFL corners in man coverage, but McMillan is a big-bodied type that can box out. He attacked all four layers of the field at Arizona and thrashed man coverage with a 29% target per route run rate (TPRR).

Since the inception of the WR Rookie Super Model (2018), 10 prospects have posted a grade of 85 or higher, and they have fared well, with 80% securing a top-24 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-12 finish: 30%
  • Top-24 finish: 80%
  • Top-36 finish: 100%

McMillan should instantly become the top target earner for the Panthers. Adam Theilen will be 35 when the season starts, and the Panthers' Round 1 pick from last season, Xavier Legette, was an underwhelming prospect that the Super Model estimated as a four-round reach. 

Legette averaged only 7.8 points per game as a rookie. McMillan's ceiling still carries some additional risk, given Bryce Young's slow start to his career. However, Young did show signs of life over the last four games of 2024, ranking as the eighth-highest rated passer during that span (102.3).

Bottom Line: McMillan is worthy of an early first-round selection in dynasty rookie drafts and is a borderline WR2 in 2025 season-long formats. The Super Model rates Hunter as the WR1, but they are only one rating point apart, and we know McMillan will play offense full-time.

4. Travis Hunter | WR/CB | Jaguars

  • Rookie Super Model Rating: 93 (5th All-Time)
  • NFL Draft Pick: 2
  • 2025 Outlook: Boom-Bust WR3
  • Multi-Year Outlook: Mid-Range WR2 with WR1 Upside

 

Despite playing defense, Hunter played near full-time on offense, with route participation rates of 77% and 88% in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Even more impressive, he was a high-impact player with 22% and 27% target shares on his way to 1,979 yards (90 per game) and 20 touchdowns (0.91 per game).

Hunter offers the complete package, with a high-end film rating of 91, to go along with a strong production rating of 87. He is the fifth-best WR prospect in the history of the Super Model, and if he were drafted purely as a WR, he would rank third all-time. Still, James Gladstone and Liam Coen have already tipped their hand, stating Hunter will focus on offense first and learn defense as he goes.

Ultimately, Hunter offers the second-highest ceiling of any prospect in this class after Jeanty, but projecting his offensive workload is still a guessing game despite the comments from Jacksonville's brass. I currently have him at a 75% route participation in the Fantasy Life projections, well below the historical expectation of 90%-plus for high-end WRs. Hunter projects as a low-end WR3 with 12 points per game, but his boom scenario climbs to 18.

McMillan and Hunter are separated by only one point in the Super Model, making this a dealer's choice scenario. McMillan offers slightly less upside with a stronger floor, while Hunter could be a top-six WR in a full-time role, but could languish in WR3 land if the Jags cap his routes. He also has to deal with BrIan Thomas Jr., who already flashed elite WR1 upside last year. While we can get two WR1s from the same team, it is a rare occurrence.

Bottom Line: Hunter is worthy of an early Round 1 selection in rookie drafts and should be considered a boom-bust WR3 option in season-long contests for 2025.

TIER 3 ROOKIE FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS

5. TreVeyon Henderson | RB | Patriots

  • Rookie Super Model Rating: 77 (17th All-Time)
  • NFL Draft Pick: 38 
  • 2025 Outlook: Mid-Range RB3 with Late-Season RB2 Upside
  • Multi-Year Outlook: Mid-Range RB2 with Low-End RB1 Upside

 

Henderson is an explosive runner who posted a 72nd percentile weighted career PFF Run Grade. He reached 10-plus yards on 17% of his carries (57th percentile) and averaged 3.9 yards after contact (52nd percentile). While he never dominated the Ohio State backfield, he accounted for 55% of the team's designed runs as a freshman and 59% as a junior, before the arrival of transfer Quinshon Judkins created more of a time-share in his final year (40%).

As a receiver, he was never a highly utilized weapon, thanks to playing with multiple Round 1 NFL WR talents, but he flashed big-play ability when given his opportunities. He is one of only four backs in the class (Jeanty, Cameron Skattebo, Dylan Sampson) who eclipsed the 55th percentile in weighted career PFF Run and Receiving Grade. His strong film rating (84) suggests that he could take his game to another level in the NFL.

Of the 28 backs with a similar Super Model rating to Henderson, over half reached top-12 status within their first three years.

  • Top-six finishes: 19%
  • Top-12 finishes: 52%
  • Top-24 finishes: 76%
  • Top-36 finishes: 95%

Henderson will battle Rhamondre Stevenson for touches early in his career. Stevenson has two more years before the Patriots have an out in 2027. However, Stevenson's overall cap hit is only 2% and 2.5% of the cap, according to Spotrac.com. The Patriots also have a new coaching regime, led by Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels. Given all those factors, plus Henderson's strong prospect profile, we shouldn't assume that handling the RB1 role isn't in the range of outcomes sooner rather than later.

Bottom Line: Henderson is a mid-Round 1 target in rookie drafts and is an RB3/RB4 option in season-long formats.

6. Quinshon Judkins | RB | Browns

  • Rookie Super Model Rating: 76 (19th All-Time)
  • NFL Draft Pick: 36
  • 2025 Outlook: Low-End RB2 with High-End RB2 Upside
  • Multi-Year Outlook: Mid-Range RB2 with Low-End RB1 Upside

 

 

Judkins has the size and speed to develop into a formidable early-down runner in the NFL. He boasts an 82nd percentile weighted career PFF Run grade and a 69th percentile speed score of 109.7. The Buckeye back drew Nick Chubb as one of his Super Model comps, a name with whom the Browns and Kevin Stefanksi are very familiar. Judkins' expected draft capital, based on mock drafts, was pick 54, but Cleveland took him 18 picks earlier (36).

As a receiver, Judkins was never leaned on in college, which impacted his production rating (69). His best receiving yards per team pass attempt (RYPTPA) of 0.74 falls in the 18th percentile, leaving question marks about his three-down utility at the next level. While he will likely never become a focal point of a passing attack, he has good enough hands to handle check-downs and swing passes if called upon.

Ultimately, his Super Model comps have performed well over their first three seasons in the NFL, with 68% finding their way to a top-24 campaign.

  • Top-six finishes: 18%
  • Top-12 finishes: 45%
  • Top-24 finishes: 68%
  • Top-36 finishes: 91%

Expect Judkins to take over the early-down opportunities for the Browns offense out of the gate, with Jerome Ford likely handling more of the passing-down work. Cleveland's offense is a work in progress, with Joe Flacco currently slated as the starting quarterback, and Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel as challengers. The best path for a boom season from Judkins is via a surprise offensive campaign from the Browns, where the Round 2 NFL Draft pick can punch in double-digit touchdowns.

Bottom Line: Judkins deserves to go in the middle of Round 1 in dynasty league rookie drafts and projects as a borderline RB2 in season-long formats for 2025.

7. Emeka Egbuka | WR | Buccaneers

  • Rookie Super Model Rating: 84
  • NFL Draft Pick: 19
  • 2025 Outlook: Upside/Stash WR5/6
  • Multi-Year Outlook: Borderline WR2 with Mid-Range WR2 Upside

 

Mock drafts had Egbuka going in early Round 2, but the Buccaneers pulled the trigger on him in the middle of Round 1 at pick 19. The Ohio State product checks all of the Super Model boxes, securing an 80-plus rating in draft capital, production, and film, joining Hunter and McMillan as the only three WRs to do so in the class.

Nerd Note: Egbuka's production rating adjusts for the fact that he played with Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Marvin Harrison, who were all Round 1 NFL Draft selections (freshman sensation Jeremiah Smith will also likely be a high Round 1 pick).

Egbuka worked primarily from the slot, aligning wide only 25% of snaps in college. He was primarily an underneath target, with only 12% of his targets coming 20-plus yards down the field. However, he was good against man and zone coverage with 27% and 26% TPRR marks, and he was a menace when given his opportunities, registering a 71st-percentile 123.2 targeted QB rating.

We have seen 16 prospects rate between 80 and 89 in the WR Super Model since 2018, and they have delivered a WR2 finish by their third season 56% of the time.

  • Top-six finishes: 13%
  • Top-12 finishes: 19%
  • Top-24 finishes: 56%
  • Top-36 finishes: 69%

Egbuka's path to success in Year 1 is murky given the overlap in skill set with Chris Godwin, who just signed a three-year contract with $44 million guaranteed. However, he still has multiple outs given his talent profile:

  1. The Bucs offense goes bonkers, and he pays off as the WR3 in the offense.
  2. Chris Godwin struggles as he returns from a season-ending ankle injury.
  3. Mike Evans hits the age cliff, or one of Godwin/Evans suffers an injury.

Long-term, Mike Evans has only one year remaining on his contract, leaving the door open for more opportunities in 2026 for Egbuka.

Bottom Line: Egbuka slots in as a mid-Round 1 rookie selection in dynasty leagues and is a WR5 with upside in season-long formats. He might not start hot, but Egbuka could become extremely relevant for a stretch of games if Evans or Godwin goes down in 2025.

TIER 4 ROOKIE RANKINGS FOR FANTASY FOOTBALL

8. Colston Loveland | TE | Bears

  • Rookie Super Model Rating: 88 (5th All-Time) 
  • NFL Draft Pick: 10
  • 2025 Outlook: High-End TE2 with Late-Season TE1 Upside
  • Multi-Year Outlook: Mid-Range TE1 with High-End TE1 Upside

 

Loveland took over the lead TE duties early at Michigan, securing a 71% route participation as a true sophomore. While the Wolverines weren't a prolific passing attack, Loveland hit all the right notes on his way to a solid 83 production rating in the Super Model. He notched a 68th percentile adjusted career RYPTPA and notched a best-season target share of 34%, which is the fourth-highest since 2018.

While Loveland's production rating is good, his film rating (88) is the fifth-highest in the model's history, pointing to additional upside in the NFL as his game fully develops. History has been kind to tight ends who rated in a similar range as Loveland, with 100% notching a top-12 finish before Year 3.

  • Top-three finishes: 33%
  • Top-six finishes: 33%
  • Top-nine finishes: 67%
  • Top-12 finishes: 100%

Look for Ben Johnson to find creative ways to use the No. 10 pick from the NFL Draft early in the season, but Loveland will have to overcome Cole Kmet to secure the starting gig. While rookie TEs have run hot over the last two seasons, Kmet is the sort of veteran presence that could keep Loveland from an 80% route participation early in the season.

The arrow is pointed up for the Bears offense, but Caleb Williams has work to do—he was nowhere near a high-end passer last season—and there are a lot of mouths to feed with DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Luther Burden in the mix. Loveland has the talent profile to flourish, but we have to acknowledge that this offense still has much to prove.

Bottom Line: Loveland offers high-end TE1 upside in dynasty formats, making him worthy of a mid-Round 1 selection in rookie drafts. In redraft and bestball formats, it might take Loveland time to get going, but he could come on strong late, making him a high-end TE2 target.

9. Matthew Golden | WR | Packers

  • Rookie Super Model Rating: 81 (29th All-Time)
  • NFL Draft Pick: 22
  • 2025 Outlook: High-End WR4 with WR2 Upside
  • Multi-Year Outlook: Low-End WR3 with Mid-Range WR2 Upside

 

 

Golden's production rating of 78 is below average for a Round 1 NFL Draft selection, but Zay Flowers (80), DJ Moore (78), and Ladd McConkey (77) posted similar marks. Golden's adjusted career RYPTPA—which accounts for schedule, teammates, alignment, and QB play—came in at the 44th percentile, which isn't ideal. However, he was electric when given his opportunities, securing a 67th-percentile career targeted QB rating of 120.1.

Similar to the trio of WRs listed above, Golden's Super Model rating gets a boost from a strong film rating. His mark of 83 points to a player that still has room to grow, which helps offset some of the concerns regarding his production.

Golden's closest 17 comps in the model secured a top-36 finish 59% of the time within their first three years.

  • Top-six finishes: 12%
  • Top-12 finishes: 12%
  • Top-24 finishes: 47%
  • Top-36 finishes: 59%

The Packers haven't taken a WR in Round 1 of the NFL Draft since 2002 (Javon Walker), but pulled the trigger on Golden at Pick 22 this year. He lands on a quality offense with a high-upside quarterback in Jordan Love. While Green Bay has several decent wide receivers, they don't have an alpha, leaving the door open for Golden to make an immediate impact.

Bottom Line: Golden is worth a late Round 1 selection in rookie drafts and is a WR4 with WR2 upside in season-long formats.

10. RJ Harvey | RB | Broncos

  • Rookie Super Model Rating: 72 (38th All-Time)
  • NFL Draft Pick: 60
  • 2025 Outlook: Mid-Range RB3 with RB2 Upside
  • Multi-Year Outlook: Mid-Range RB3 with High-End RB2 Upside

 

Harvey projected as a Round 4 pick for most of the predraft process before finally settling in as a borderline Round 3 candidate over the last couple of weeks. The Broncos and Sean Payton liked Harvey even more than his pre-draft steam, leaving nothing to chance, selecting the 24-year-old out of UCF with the 60th pick.

Harvey offers a unique blend of elusiveness and explosiveness. He notched a 31% missed tackles forced rate (73rd percentile) and busted loose for 10-plus yards on 21% of his attempts (75th percentile). Only Bhayshul Tuten and Hampton secured a better speed score than Harvey's 109.4 (68th percentile).

Despite going over two rounds later than Loveland or Golden, Harvey belongs in the same tier. Almost 70% of the 42 prospects that finished with a Super Model score in Harvey's range secured a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 7%
  • Top-12 finishes: 19%
  • Top-24 finishes: 45%
  • Top-36 finishes: 69%

Historically, Payton has leaned into a rotation at running back more years than not, but he knows how to maximize talent, and no other offensive mind designs more passing game looks for their backs. Of course, Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin are the incumbent challengers, which certainly leaves the door open for a complete takeover by Harvey as soon as Year 1.

Bottom Line: Harvey is a late Round 1 pick in rookie drafts and projects as a mid-range RB3 with upside in redraft formats.

11. Tyler Warren | TE | Colts

  • Rookie Super Model Rating: 81 (6th All-Time)
  • NFL Draft Pick: 14
  • 2025 Outlook: Mid-Range TE2 with Low-End TE1 Upside
  • Multi-Year Outlook: Low-End TE1 with High-End TE1 Upside

 

Warren went only four picks after Loveland, but rates seven points lower in the Super Model with a rating of 81. His production rating (72) comes in on the low end after averaging only 202 yards per season from 2021 to 2023. However, the five-year Nittany Lion hogged 32% of the team's targets on his way to 1,230 receiving yards and eight touchdowns in his final year.

While that sort of late-breakout profile pulls down Warren's production rating, he still rates as the sixth-best TE prospect since 2018, thanks to his Round 1 draft capital and his 90 film rating—the third-highest mark on record in the model.

Tight ends with a Super Model rating in a similar range to Warren have secured a top-12 finish by their third season 70% of the time.

  • Top-three finishes: 20%
  • Top-six finishes: 20%
  • Top-nine finishes: 50%
  • Top-12 finishes: 70%

You could argue for slipping Warren down one tier, given the difference in his hit rates from Loveland and the fact that tight end ceiling outcomes aren't usually as strong as RBs and WRs, but I opted to keep him given how rare it is to see a tight end go in the top 15 picks.

The Colts have historically rotated their tight ends, but they have never spent a Round 1 pick on any of those players. Expect Warren to push for a route participation rate of over 70% immediately. The bigger question is whether Anthony Richardson can take the necessary steps to unlock the Colts' passing attack, which I have projected to have the fewest passing yards and TDs in the league. Warren will need some help to live up to his lofty draft capital in an offense with other target earners like Josh Downs and Michael Pittman.

As weird as it sounds, a Daniel Jones takeover might be the easiest path to success for Warren in Year 1. Jones loves to hit his underneath targets, an area where Warren thrives.

Bottom Line: Warren is a solid target at the end of Round 1 in rookie drafts. As far as redraft formats go, Warren is a high-end TE2 who could flash with Jones under center.

TIER 5 ROOKIE RANKINGS FOR FANTASY FOOTBALL

12. Jayden Higgins | WR | Texans

  • Rookie Super Model Rating: 77 (39th All-Time)
  • NFL Draft Pick: 34
  • 2025 Outlook: WR5 with WR3 Upside
  • Multi-Year Outlook: WR4 with WR2 Upside

 

Higgins was a strong riser in the predraft process, rising from Round 3 status in mocks all the way to pick 34 by the Texans. He transferred from Eastern Kentucky to Iowa State in his third year of college and earned 22% and 33% target shares over his final two years.

His 62nd-percentile adjusted career RYPTPA ranks fifth in the class. Despite a slightly late breakout, Higgins still earned a strong production rating of 80, placing him slightly above Golden but below Egbuka. He rated just below those two in film rating, which played out in the NFL Draft Capital.

The hit rates on prospects like Higgins aren't as strong as Golden's, which pushes him a tier below. However, the difference in their ceiling outcomes is very close, with Higgins' group behind by only one percentage point in top-12 finishes.

  • Top-six finishes: 5%
  • Top-12 finishes: 11%
  • Top-24 finishes: 30%
  • Top-36 finishes: 43%

Higgins has the chops to immediately push for the starting outside wide receiver position opposite Nico Collins in the Texans' offense, while fellow Cyclone Jaylin Noel jousts with Christian Kirk for work inside.

Bottom Line: Higgins is a late Round 1 target in rookie drafts and is a WR5 with WR3 upside season-long and best ball.

13. Luther Burden III | WR | Bears

  • Rookie Super Model Rating: 77 (41st All-Time)
  • NFL Draft Pick: 39
  • 2025 Outlook: WR5 with WR3 Upside
  • Multi-Year Outlook: WR4 with WR2 Upside

 

Burden was initially considered a Day 1 pick by draft analysts and mock drafters but fell to the Bears at pick 39 on Day 2. No other Round 1 or Round 2 selection other than McMillan posted a stronger adjusted career RYPTPA than Burden's 64th percentile mark. His best target share season of 34% also tied McMillan.

32% of Burden's targets came behind the line of scrimmage, which raises concerns about his ability to develop into more at the next level. However, his film rating of 83 suggests that he could blossom into more at the NFL level, and similar comps like Brandon Aiyuk suggest there is a path to that result.

Burden's comp group hit rates over the first three years match those of Higgins.

  • Top-six finishes: 5%
  • Top-12 finishes: 11%
  • Top-24 finishes: 30%
  • Top-36 finishes: 43%

The Bears have a lot of mouths to feed with DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Colston Loveland in the mix, and Caleb Williams must make dramatic strides under Ben Johnson to have any chance of supporting so many options. However, we saw Johnson work his magic in Detroit, and if Williams progresses, Burden could flourish over the long term, especially if Rome Odunze doesn't progress in Year 2.

Bottom Line: Burden offers a similar long-term range of outcomes to Higgins but falls below him in the ranks due to Higgins' cleaner path to targets in Year 1. Burden is a 1-2 turn option in rookie drafts who will need some luck to reach his WR3 upside in 2025.

14. Cam Ward | QB | Titans

  • Rookie Super Model Rating: N/A
  • NFL Draft Pick: 1
  • 2025 Outlook: Mid-Range to Low-End QB2
  • Multi-Year Outlook: High-QB2 with QB1 Upside

Ward averaged 296 passing yards and 2.3 TDs per game over three seasons of FBS competition. He played two of those seasons at Washington State before transferring to Miami for his final year, where he averaged 331 yards and three passing TDs.

He doesn't offer the same rushing profile as Jaxson Dart, but Ward wasn't a zero in that department, averaging 28 yards per game over his final three years. He added 17 touchdowns via his legs over that span.

The Titans don't have a great receiving corps, but Calvin Ridley gives Ward someone he can trust while they wait to see if one of their Round 4 selections, Elic Ayomanor or Chimere Dike, can supplant Van Jefferson and the aging Tyler Lockett.

Bottom Line: Ward will get plenty of run as the No. 1 overall selection in the 2025 NFL Draft, which makes him worthy of consideration early in Round 2 of rookie drafts. In rookie Superflex formats, he moves up into Tier 2. For 2025, consider Ward a low-end to mid-range QB2 worth considering over aging veterans in weaker offenses.

15. Kaleb Johnson | RB | Steelers

  • Rookie Super Model Rating: 70 (49th All-Time)
  • NFL Draft Pick: 83
  • 2025 Outlook: Mid-Range RB3 with RB2 Upside 
  • Multi-Year Outlook: Low-End RB3 with RB2 Upside

 

Johnson is the first RB prospect in the ranks where I have trumped the Super Model based on landing spot. He is the RB8 in the model, but I have him slightly ahead at RB6 in my rookie rankings, given his opportunity to take over the early-down reps left behind by Najee Harris' departure in Pittsburgh.

The Super Model was cooler on Johnson than mock drafts, but the NFL ultimately sided with the model, as the Steelers selected the Iowa product at pick 83 (26 picks later than the mocks). Only 13% of Johnson's carries went for 10-plus yards over his career, which fell in the 31st percentile, and his best RYPTPA season was in the 38th percentile. Ultimately, Johnson's production, film, and speed score marks all rate slightly above average.

Johnson's floor isn't as strong as Harvey's, pushing him a tier below, but the ceiling hit rates are close, with Johnson only five percentage points lower.

  • Top-six finishes: 7%
  • Top-12 finishes: 14%
  • Top-24 finishes: 36%
  • Top-36 finishes: 53%

While the team would likely prefer a 1-2 punch, with a bigger back like Johnson handling early downs, Jaylen Warren is a talented back who could make life difficult for the rookie. In fact, you could argue Warren carries the higher ceiling of the two players in a perfect runout thanks to his big-play ability and receiving-down chops—two things that Johnson didn't demonstrate in college.

Bottom Line: Johnson is an early Round 2 target in rookie drafts and is an RB3 target in redraft leagues. He has the opportunity to step into a significant role immediately, but his talent profile isn't on the same level as that of the Tier 2 and 3 backs. He is unique because his short-term outlook is slightly stronger than the long view. 

16. Tre Harris | WR | Chargers

  • Rookie Super Model Rating: 72 (68th All-Time)
  • NFL Draft Pick: 55
  • 2025 Outlook: WR5 with WR3 Upside
  • Multi-Year Outlook: WR4 with WR2 Upside

 

Harris is on par with Higgins and Burden in the production department, with a rating of 81. He notched the No. 1 TPRR against man coverage in the class at 37%. Only Harris and Burden cleared a 26% TPRR against man and zone looks. When targeted, Harris made the most of his opportunities, posting a 71st-percentile career targeted QB rating of 123.4.

Draft capital rating (68) is the most significant difference between Harris and the names above him in this tier—his film rating (80) is the same as Higgins (80) and three points below Burden (83).  Interestingly, despite a Super Model rating five points lower than Higgins, their range of outcomes is very similar, thanks to the broader range of results we see at the WR position overall.

  • Top-six finishes: 2%
  • Top-12 finishes: 13%
  • Top-24 finishes: 28%
  • Top-36 finishes: 39%

The Chargers' WR2 role, opposite of Ladd McConkey, should be an open competition among Harris, Quentin Johnston, and Mike Williams. Johnston hasn't lived up to his first-round price tag, and Williams will be 31 when the season starts—leaving the door open for Harris to operate as the No. 2 target for Justin Herbert.

Bottom Line: Harris rates slightly below Higgins and Burden but belongs in the same tier, given similar historical hit rates. Harris is a Round 2 target in rookie drafts and is a WR5 with WR3 upside in redraft formats.

17. Bhayshul Tuten | RB | Jaguars

  • Rookie Super Model Rating: 71 (43rd All-Time)
  • NFL Draft Pick: 104
  • 2025 Outlook: RB5 with RB2 Upside
  • Multi-Year Outlook: RB4 with RB2 Upside

 

Tuten is a big-play threat, boasting the No. 1 speed score in the class at 118.3 and the No. 3 explosive run rate, taking 18% of his totes 10-plus yards during his college career. He was also a plus in the passing game with a best-target share season of 13% and a 17% career TPRR.

That is the sort of combination we are looking for in fantasy football, and despite falling to pick 104, Tuten's historical comps have done well, securing a top-36 finish 61% of the time in their first three years.

  • Top-six finishes: 7%
  • Top-12 finishes: 14%
  • Top-24 finishes: 41%
  • Top-36 finishes: 61%

Tuten will battle Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby for touches in a revamped Jaguars attack set to feature Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter in the passing game. James Gladstone appears to be keen on adding big-play potential, which bodes well for Tuten, but forecasting how this backfield will divide might not take shape until we get more information in training camp and preseason games this summer.

Bottom Line: Tuten is a bet on playmaking talent in a backfield without a solidified starter. He should be targeted in Round 2 of rookie drafts and is an RB5 with RB2 upside in season-long leagues.

18. Cam Skattebo | RB | Giants

  • Rookie Super Model Rating: 70 (45th All-Time)
  • NFL Draft Pick: 105
  • 2025 Outlook: RB5 with RB2 Upside
  • Multi-Year Outlook: RB4 with RB2 Upside

 

Skattebo offers the most prolific receiving profile in the class behind Jeanty. His 1.52 best-season RYPTPA falls in the 75th percentile, and his 16% best-season target share is tied with Jeanty for No. 1 in the class. He is a slippery runner with a 91st percentile missed tackles forced rate of 37%, which is second in the class, behind Jeanty.

Ultimately, we are talking about an uber-productive back with a strong film rating (85) that doesn't check all the athletic boxes teams covet. However, Skattebo notched a 60th percentile explosive run rate, with 18% of his attempts traveling 10 yards or more.

Skattebo's comps have collected a top-36 finish 53% of the time by their third season.

  • Top-six finishes: 7%
  • Top-12 finishes: 14%
  • Top-24 finishes: 36%
  • Top-36 finishes: 53%

Tyrone Tracy had a strong rookie season, but as a Round 5 pick, he isn't insulated from losing touches. The Giants will likely use both backs, but Skattebo holds a lot of outs thanks to his high-end receiving profile. If he is ever asked to lead the backfield for a stretch of games, he could deliver RB1 performances.

Bottom Line: Skattebo is a bet on a three-down skillset that could catapult him into the RB1 conversation for stretches of games. He is worthy of a mid-second-round selection in rookie drafts and is an RB5 with RB2 upside in season-long leagues.

19. Jaxson Dart | QB | Giants

  • Rookie Super Model Rating: N/A
  • NFL Draft Pick: 25
  • 2025 Outlook: Low-End QB2 with Late-Season QB1 Upside
  • Multi-Year Outlook: High-End QB2 with Mid-Range QB1 Upside

I'm not a QB guru, but I've spent a lot of time studying variance while building ceiling/floor logic for the next round of Fantasy Life tools, and the data is extremely clear: hitting ceilings is easier for dual-threat quarterbacks, even if they aren't great passers.

QB Type

Pass Yards

Pass TDs

Rush Yards

Rush TDs

Fantasy Floor

Fantasy Ceiling

Elite Pocket

260

2.00

5

0.05

15.6

21.9

Average Dual-Threat

225

1.25

25

.15

13.5

21.2

Dart averaged 47 yards rushing per game over his final two collegiate seasons (excludes sacks), and will be one of my primary targets in rookie drafts at QB in Round 2.

Bottom Line: Dart might come from a gimmicky offense, but the Giants put a Round 1 bet on him, and he can run—that's all I need. He is a strong target in Round 2 of rookie drafts and is a low-end QB2 with late-season upside in redraft.

TIER 6 FANTASY FOOTBALL ROOKIE RANKINGS

20. Jack Bech | WR | Raiders: The Raiders don't have any good wide receivers after Jakobi Meyers, leaving the door for Bech to challenge for immediate reps. Bech has a Super Model rating of 70. His 68 production rating is lackluster for a Round 2 NFL Draft selection, but his film rating of 81 suggests he has the tools to develop further. Since 2018, 29% of Bech's comps secured a top-36 finish in their first three years.

 

21. Kyle Williams | WR | Patriots: Williams joins Stefon Diggs, who is recovering from a mid-season ACL injury, as the primary additions to Drake Maye's passing attack. Given the other pass catchers on New England's roster, Williams has the opportunity to take over a starting role immediately. Comps with a similar Super Model rating to Williams' 69 garnered a top-36 finish by their third season 26% of the time.

 

22. Mason Taylor | TE | Jets: The Jets were connected to Tyler Warren in Round 1 in the pre-draft process, but they decided to wait and grab Taylor in Round 2 with the 42nd pick. Taylor's production rating is below par for high Round 2 picks, but his film rating suggests upside if he continues to develop. Taylor has the inside track to the Jets TE1 role as a rookie.

 

23. Dylan Sampson | RB | Browns: Sampson joins Judkins in the revamped Browns backfield, where he will challenge Jerome Ford for the RB2 role. His production rating (67) is weak, but his film rating (85) is very strong. While the landing spot isn't ideal due to the early Round 2 capital invested in Judkins, Sampson's comp hit rates aren't that far off from the Tier 5 backs, with 46% turning into top-36 options by their third season.

 

24. Harold Fannin | TE | Browns: Fannin ranks ahead of Taylor in the Super Model as the TE3 with a rating of 77. He owns the highest production rating (100) ever in the model and offers better long-term upside than Taylor. However, he is currently blocked by David Njoku, at least for one more season, in a passing attack that is searching for answers at quarterback.

TIER 7 ROOKIE RANKINGS FOR FANTASY FOOTBALL

25. D.J. Giddens | RB | Colts: The RB2 role behind Jonathan Taylor is wide open, which would make Giddens a top-notch handcuff if he beats out Khalil Herbert for the role in camp.

26. Jaylin Noel | WR | Texans: Noel notched a Super Model rating of 69 and will battle Christian Kirk for reps from the slot.

27. Pat Bryant | WR | Broncos: It seems that every receiver drafted by Sean Payton who is 6'2" or taller is the next Marques Colston. Bryant notched a best-season target share of 26% in college and has a shot at the WR2 role in Denver.

28. Jaydon Blue | RB | Cowboys: Blue's Super Model comps (66 rating) don't offer high hit rates, but the Dallas backfield is open for competition with Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders currently atop the depth chart. Blue could serve as the passing-down back early—he boasts the No. 2 career TPRR in the class at 23%.

29. Terrance Ferguson | TE | Rams: The Rams haven't featured a TE heavily in Sean McVay's era other than a brief several-week stint for Tyler Higbee at the end of the 2019 season. Higbee is free after this season, and the Rams also have an out in Davante Adams' deal. Ferguson's comps don't have strong hit rates, but the Los Angeles spent a Round 2 pick on him.

30. Isaac TeSlaa | WR | Lions: TeSlaa was never a strong target earner in college and finished with a terrible production rating of 62. However, the film grinders have sung his praises, and the Lions traded three third-round picks to get him. TeSlaa will battle Tim Patrick for the WR3 role.

31. Jalen Milroe | QB | Seahawks: Milroe doesn't have a clear path to immediate reps with Sam Darnold recently signing a three-year, $100 million deal. However, Milroe offers the rushing upside we covet in fantasy, and he could boom if he ever gets his chance. He registered a 20% designed rush rate and an 11% scramble rate, which he parlayed into 53 rushing yards per game in college.

32. Woody Marks | RB | Texans: Marks was a surprise selection at pick 116. He offers immediate passing-down chops with the third-best career TPRR in the class at 22%. Joe Mixon isn't a spring chicken, and the depth chart behind him is weak, providing Marks with sneaky handcuff upside if he runs hot in training camp.

33. Jalen Royals | WR | Chiefs: Royals fell to pick 133 in the draft, pulling down his Super Model rating to 63, which hasn't been fruitful territory. However, on the bright side, he landed on the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes.

34. Devin Neal | RB | Saints: The Super Model pointed towards mock drafts being too high on Neal, and that turned out to be true with the Kansas State product falling to pick 184. Still, he stuck the landing. The Saints' depth chart is a giant question mark behind Alvin Kamara, who will be 30 years old this season. While the model didn't love Neal, he has demonstrated the ability to handle a large workload, which could make him a sneaky handcuff.

TIER 8 FANTASY ROOKIE RANKINGS

35. Trevor Etienne | RB | Panthers

36. Brashard Smith | RB | Chiefs

37. Savion Williams | WR | Packers

38. Elijah Arroyo | TE | Seahawks

39. Tyler Shough | QB | Saints

40. Elic Ayomanor | WR | Titans

41. Dont'e Thornton | WR | Raiders

42. Shedeur Sanders | QB | Browns

43. Jordan James | RB | 49ers

44. Chimere Dike | WR | Titans

45. Jarquez Hunter | RB | Rams

46. Jaylin Lane | WR | Commanders

47. Ollie Gordon | RB | Dolphins

48. Tai Felton | WR | Vikings

49. Tahj Brooks | RB | Bengals

50. KeAndre Lambert-Smith | WR | Chargers

For the rest of my rookie rankings, check out our dynasty rookie rankings page, where you can also see Waz and Freedman's ranks.