Fantasy Football Roundtable: ADP Targets Outside The Top-100, Rookies To Draft, and More
Kendall Valenzuela, Adam Ronis, and cooterdoodle answer pressing fantasy football questions as we move through NFL Training Camps.
With so many fantasy football nuggets coming out each and every day as we progress through NFL Training Camps, I gathered two of my favorite colleagues to break down the pressing topics that we all need answers to.
Cooterdoodle and Ronis, let's get into it.
Who is your favorite rookie to draft at cost in fantasy football drafts?
cooterdoodle: UGH. This changes weekly for me. Rookies are just so much fun! Today, right now, in this exact moment ... RJ Harvey. Admittedly, this has a lot to do with my trust in Sean Payton and his history with RBs.
Adam Ronis: There are so many good rookie running backs this season. I’ll go with Omarion Hampton. He has the size and athleticism and is going to an ideal spot for a running back in the Greg Roman scheme with the Chargers, who want the running game to be the foundation. Najee Harris will play a role, but it remains to be seen how much time he misses due to an eye injury sustained during a fireworks mishap. Hampton is more dynamic and will be the main back for the Chargers.
Kendall Valenzuela: I have drafted a lot of Tetairoa McMillan. While I know a lot of people might look at the Panthers offense and shy away, we have to remember that chasing volume is important and McMillan is projected for 121.5 targets in 2025 in our fantasy football projections. We just need to hope we get the Bryce Young performance that we saw at the end of last season.
For full dynasty fantasy football rookie rankings, click here!
Jaylen Waddle (WR29) vs. Travis Hunter (WR30) vs. Zay Flowers (WR31) — who are you taking?
cooterdoodle: Screw it. I’m here for a good time, not a long time. Gimme the guy who is either going to a) dominate on both sides of the ball and make my fantasy team a force to be reckoned with, OR b) be a total bust at cost and make me regret every decision I’ve ever made. Travis Hunter it is.
Adam Ronis: I’ll go with Waddle here. Last season was awful due to the Dolphins disappointing offense and Tua Tagovailoa missing time. The offense had trouble getting the ball downfield, and Jonnu Smith became a focal point with quick passes. Smith had a 20% target share, and Waddle will benefit with Smith gone. Waddle had at least 70 catches and 1,000 yards in three straight seasons before last year.
Kendall Valenzuela: I've taken Zay Flowers the most out of these three options. Flowers has given us WR3 finishes in back-to-back seasons with 12.8 and 12.3 points per game. Where some (including myself) get hesitant with Flowers is the run-heavy nature of this offense. The Ravens ran the third-fewest dropbacks last year, but I like Dwain McFarland calling him out as a potential breakout in his third season. Here's a sneak peek (you have to check the article out for more), but Dwain's ceiling-floor model has a projected ceiling of 18.5 points per game (WR1). Sign me up!
Which second-year quarterback could face the dreaded sophomore slump this season?
cooterdoodle: As a Saints fan, I am morally, emotionally, and contractually obligated to say Michael Penix Jr.
Adam Ronis: Bo Nix is the likely one to disappoint based on his draft cost. The Broncos should have a better running game, and while they added Evan Engram and drafted Pat Bryant, they aren’t loaded on offense.
Kendall Valenzuela: My hope is that no one is the answer, but if I had to pick out of the Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Bo Nix, and Caleb Williams group? I guess I'll pick Nix, but I'm not out on him! Nix finished the 2024 season as the QB10 and recorded the fifth-most fantasy points for a rookie quarterback. When we look at the whole picture with Nix, he completed 66.3% of his passes and finished with 3,775 yards and a QBR of 56.9 (18th in the NFL).
Now, there is still work to be done here with Nix. According to The Athletic, he was tied for 25th in yards per attempt on vertical passes, and he also had the second-highest rate of throws behind the line of scrimmage. Courtland Sutton was the leading receiver for Denver, but the crazier part was that Nix and Payton really liked to spread the ball around—10 different players caught touchdown passes in 2024. I just wish they had a little bit more juice outside of Sutton, Evan Engram, Marvin Mims, Devaughn Vele, Troy Franklin, and Pat Bryant.
They addressed a huge need at running back and tight end, but I fear wide receiver could hurt this team in 2025, especially since Nix was the QB16 and QB21 in EPA per dropback (+0.09) and completion percentage over expected (+0.6%), respectively, among 32 qualified quarterbacks.
Which player are you targeting with an ADP outside the top 100?
cooterdoodle: If I miss out on the top 3 MuskaTEs (Bowers/McBride/Kittle) in my drafts, I’m thrilled to snag Evan Engram as a late-rounder. Admittedly, this has a lot to do with my trust in Sean Payton and his history with TEs.
Last offseason, when Payton drafted Bo Nix 1.12, the league scoffed. “REACH!” “What is he doing!?” And yet … Nix broke rookie records. So yea, when Payton says that Engram is going to be his new “joker” and Denver’s “Taysom Hill 2.0”, I’m listening.
Adam Ronis: Cedric Tillman. He costs nothing, and if it doesn’t work out, it’s easy to move on. In Weeks 7-12 last season, he was the WR12 in fantasy points per game, and the Browns will be trailing often and passing a lot.
Kendall Valenzuela: It's Drake Maye for me. Last season, Maye averaged 223 passing yards and 36 rushing yards in 10 complete starts last season, and he finished as QB22 while averaging 13.6 points per game.
There's a lot of meat left on the bone for Maye. The Patriots came in dead last among NFL teams in supporting cast rankings. Also, his wide receivers ranked dead last in receiving yards (1,723) last season. So, considering that they have tried to upgrade their offense but also hired a more seasoned head coach in Mike Vrabel, things should get better in the passing game.
Then there's the rushing upside. In 2024, Maye averaged 4.9 rushes and 36.3 yards per game, but I'm here to tell you he is an exceptional runner, and if he truly gets unleashed this season, then we can expect more from him.
Track all ADPs, from all providers, in one place with our fantasy football ADP tool here!
Which NFL game is circled on your personal calendar this year that you can't wait to watch?
cooterdoodle: I’m technically drooling over 5 future matchups. But if I have to settle for one, it’s Week 10—Revenge of the Tush Push. Ideally, the Eagles will attempt a record-breaking number of tush pushes against the Packers and succeed 100% of the time. Is that too much to ask for?
Adam Ronis: There are so many good games, and I won’t be a homer and pick a Cowboys game. I just hope it isn’t as depressing as last season. The Ravens-Bills has become a good rivalry and a good game with Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, and we get to see it in Week 1.
Kendall Valenzuela: It's Week 13, Vikings vs. Seahawks for me. Sam Darnold revenge game?! Sign me up. I'm curious not only of what Darnold will look like and what his play level will be by Week 13, but also how good J.J. McCarthy will be by this time. I'll have my popcorn ready for this one.
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