Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer For Week 3: Buy-High on Tetairoa McMillan

Word problems used to trip me up in math class.

If I had to guess (almost 30 years later), it was the details that short-circuited my brain. All I needed were the numbers. Jack, having only two pencils but needing five, didn’t interest me. Just tell me to calculate the difference between five and three. Taking some fake plotline and integrating the critical parts into it only muddied the waters. Fantasy trades have similar complications.

Flipping a WR1 for a mid-tier TE and a high-end RB2 is simple math. Even better, you can assign values using projections to quantify the trade. The decisions become easier. Or, at least the pros and cons are clearer. But add names to the equation, and nothing makes sense. Emotions, sunk-cost biases, and fandom become factors. However, with the help of some tools here, let’s find some offers worth pursuing as we head into Week 3.

Potential Trade Targets in Fantasy Football

Like last week, I’ll start with a short list of players to test the market through negotiations. However, Jonathan also puts together a stellar list with more in-depth context. There’ll likely be an overlap or two, but the more important part is having a set of guys to monitor that can help set your team up for success as the season continues to unfold.

Buy Lows

Breece Hall – Held to just 29 yards on the ground in an epic collapse against the Bills; ceded more two-minute snaps to Isaiah Davis; will likely have to play with backup QB Tyrod Taylor as Justin Fields works through the concussion protocol.
Drake London – yet to crest more than 60 receiving yards in a game; only a 61.0% catchable target rate through two games despite an aDOT of 6.8 air yards.
Rashee Rice – still has four games of a six-game suspension to serve.

It’s only two weeks, but you can see the pattern here. They’re the early and mid-round players who have given us uneven performances at best. However, for each, the opportunity to meet their offseason ADPs is still there.

Breece Hall maintained 83.3% of the RB carries against the Bills. Yes, the totes only picked up 2.9 yards per attempt. But matchups against the Dolphins, Cowboys, Panthers, and Bengals over the next six weeks should allow Hall’s production to match his workload.

Drake London did see a lesser target rate in Week 2 (from 36.0% to 19.0%), but his QB only dropped back to pass 24 times compared to the 47 in the season opener. Plus, Michael Penix dealt with pressure on more than 40.0% of his dropbacks. They’ll face Carolina and Washington before their bye, giving them time to get back in sync.

Hollywood Brown took the ‘Rashee Rice’ role in Week 2, but got a typical ‘Hollywood Brown’ set of looks against the Eagles (five). It was Tyquan Thornton who gained the most from the uncertainty in the passing game. Without a true slot option, it’s hard not to see Rice reclaim his WR1 title as the Chiefs battle back from a winless start.

Buy Highs

Tetairoa McMillan – 20.0% target share in consecutive weeks; ranks 10th out of 55 WRs with ten or more targets in YAC per rec; most targets and yards when Bryce Young is under pressure.
Rome Odunze - 25.0%+ target share in back-to-back weeks; both marks ahead of DJ Moore; 30.0% target share on play-action concepts; UR Score over 80 in Weeks 1 and 2.
Javonte Williams – held a 70.0% share of the RB carries; earned more than double the number of targets compared to Miles Sanders (eight vs three).

With ‘Buy Highs,’ the sustainability of the amount of work (or its quality) becomes a part of the deal. There’s no question regarding Tetairoa McMillan’s talent, but he’s at the mercy of Bryce Young’s up-and-down play under center. The same goes for Rome Odunze as Caleb Williams continues to learn under HC Ben Johnson. However, the narrative shifts with Javonte Williams.

Williams’ share of the Cowboys’ rushing attack is appealing, but it took a game featuring 155 plays run between both teams for him to reach 18 carries. And we haven’t yet seen Jaydon Blue active on Sundays. There’s some fragility to his stranglehold on the touches. But for now, it’s a risk worth trading for with the right pieces.

Analyzing the Right Fantasy Football Trade Value

Let’s apply some of what we’ve discussed so far. We can (partially) quantify player value, given usage rates. Our goal should be to improve our team by making reasonable offers to our league mates. The latest trade market has a couple of deals we can consider to see if they’re worth exploring. We don’t have any key information, such as league settings or roster makeups, but the foundation of the deals should give us enough to get our minds thinking about what we can do in our own leagues.

Trade 1

Give: Amon-Ra St. Brown and Travis Hunter
Receive: Tetairoa McMillan and Jaylen Warren

Honestly, I wouldn’t want to part with my top receiver after a WR1 finish on the week. But I’m assuming the party with Amon-Ra St. Brown needs help at RB. Anyway, we can compare each component of the deal with our Utilization Report Comparison tool.

I pointed to keeping names (and subsequently emotions and fandom) out of the equation for as long as possible. Recognizing it’s not quite as simple, but if I took the UR Scores from both sides, I could come up with an answer in less than a minute.

‘Give’ Side: 87 + 51 = 138
‘Receive’ Side: 76 + 69 = 145

Again, it’s quick math, but the scoff you might hear from managers with St. Brown might be overzealous. However, we could use their PPR results as another data slice to emphasize the fairness of the offer.

The on-field production paints a similar picture. The St. Brown side does have the edge at 31.2 PPR PPG, but only edges out the package of McMillan and Warren by 1.7 PPG. Finally, let’s see how the crew views the top two WRs for the rest of the season.

You could make the case for a tier drop at WR to pick up an RB2 in the process. And with Warren’s continued usage as a pass-catcher, the total production could pay off in the end.

Trade 2

'Give' Side: A.J. Brown and Isiah Pacheco
'Receive' Side: Tyler Allgeier and Rashee Rice

BLUF: I’m giving this trade an ‘Incomplete’ grade.

I’m leaving the receivers out of this to focus on the RBs. And while I understand the frustration with Isiah Pacheco, I’d push back on acquiring even fewer touches to rely on each week.

Sure, we did just see Tyler Allgeier run into the end zone on a goal-line carry. But consider the context of the play. Atlanta was already up by two scores, and their continued success on the ground forced Minnesota to use the last of their timeouts. Plus, you can see the Vikings provide minimal resistance to Allgeier to preserve as much clock as possible.

I’m not saying Pacheco’s rushing share will change. But Bijan Robinson’s 93 UR Score should give you some indication of what Allgeier’s role will (continue to) be on a weekly basis. I’d rather keep the two players that I know will earn snaps each week than bank on a specific scenario to earn fantasy points.

Players Mentioned in this Article

BreeceHall
RBNYJ
PPG
13.28
Proj
12.31
DrakeLondon
WRATL
PPG
16.45
Proj
13.69
RasheeRice
WRKC
PPG
19.10
RomeOdunze
WRCHI
PPG
12.27
Proj
10.02