IDP Fantasy Football Starts For Week 8: Ernest Jones, Lukas Van Ness, and More

I went through the offenses and asked the same questions I ask every week. For linebackers, how many tackles does this offense give to off-ball LBs, how often and where do they run the ball, and what personnel does it use? For defensive linemen, how often does this offense give up pressure, and who is the rusher actually lining up against? For defensive backs, how many tackles does this offense give to safeties, and does the defense keep them close to the line?

Everything below is season data through seven weeks, with the last four weeks (Weeks 4-7) for tackles allowed and pressure, and the last three weeks for scheme and personnel when they tell a different story or an emerging trend.

Some IDP Fantasy Football Trends Ahead Of Week 8

Kansas City's line has slipped. The Chiefs allowed pressure on 38.6% of their dropbacks on the season and 47.5% over the last four weeks. Joshua Ezeudu has taken over at right tackle, and Jaylon Moore, who played there before, has allowed pressure on 4 of 20 true pass-set snaps (20.0%) in that stretch.
- IDP takeaway: Denver's rushers are getting a weaker line than the season number says.
Tampa Bay is running more, and Atlanta is running less. The Buccaneers' run rate went from 42.3% on the season to 52.5% over the last three weeks, with 12 personnel up from 23.3% to 31.8% of their snaps and yards per carry up from 4.88 to 5.32. The Falcons went the other way, from 46.8% to 35.6%.
- IDP takeaway: A run-heavy Tampa offense keeps Atlanta's linebackers on the field and puts them near the ball.
Chicago's runs are dying at the line. The Bears' run rate went from 45.0% to 38.6% over the last three weeks, yards per carry from 4.39 to 3.39, and yards before contact per carry from 1.27 to 0.78. They still throw short on 72.8% of their dropbacks.
- IDP takeaway: Short runs and short throws both finish in front of the linebackers and safeties, which is why Chicago gives up the tackles it does at those spots.
The Rams are throwing it shorter. Los Angeles went from 66.4% short throws on the season to 73.9% over the last three weeks, and the Chargers play zone on 75.4% of their snaps in that stretch.
- IDP takeaway: Quick throws into zone coverage mean tackles for the Chargers' safeties, but quick throws also mean the Rams give up very little pressure.

Linebackers To Start In Week 8 IDP Fantasy Football

Chicago gives off-ball linebackers 21.3 tackles per game, the most among the teams playing this week. Indianapolis is next at 20.7, then the Rams at 20.4 and Arizona at 20.0. Buffalo gives up 19.5 and Baltimore 19.1. At the bottom, Dallas gives up 12.9, Philadelphia 13.9, and Green Bay 14.3. The average among teams playing is 17.8. I started with that list, then narrowed it by how each offense runs, what personnel it uses, how its numbers have moved over the last four weeks, and how much of the defense's work the linebacker actually gets.

Ernest Jones, Seattle Seahawks (vs. Chicago Bears)

Chicago is the offense I want my linebackers facing. The Bears give linebackers 21.3 tackles per game on the season, 149 in seven games, and 21.5 over the last four, so this isn't a one-month blip. They also give safeties 11.7 and edge rushers 15.0, so tackles are spread across the whole defense. The tackles come from how the Bears move the ball. They run on 38.6% of their plays over the last three weeks, but those runs average 3.39 yards per carry with only 0.78 yards before contact, so a defender is on the ball almost as soon as it's handed off. They run outside on 50.0% of their carries over that stretch, keeping the play moving toward the sideline and pulling linebackers into pursuit. When they throw, it's short, on 72.8% of their dropbacks (70.5% on the season), with 10.2% screens. They used 11 personnel on 53.6% of their snaps over the last three weeks, 12 on 28.5% and 13 on 16.4%.

Seattle plays zone on 85.9% of its snaps on the season and 82.0% over the last three, so those short throws land in Jones' area. Seattle was in nickel on 69.9% of its snaps over the last three and dime on 23.3%, and base was only 4.9%. That means two linebackers on most plays, and Jones is one of them.

He's played 67, 45, 65, 68, 57, 57, and 50 snaps, and his tackles have gone 13, 8, 8, 11, 9, 9, and 9. That's 67 tackles on 409 snaps, a 16.4% tackle rate, with 36 solo and 3 TFLs. His floor this season has been 8. Last week was 50 snaps with 36 in coverage and 14 against the run, and he still had 9 tackles on 5 targets.

The risk is the snap trend. His snaps have slid from 68 in Week 4 to 50 last week, while Tyrice Knight has taken more of the work, with 49 and 36 snaps and 8 tackles in each of the last two games. Knight's presence is the reason I'm not saying Jones has a lock on every tackle in this game. The matchup is strong enough that both can have a good night, and Jones has been at 9 for three straight games anyway.

Kendal Daniels, Atlanta Falcons (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

I am going back to the well with Kendal Daniels in Week 8. I am hoping Divine Deablo misses another game. Daniels looked comfortable with the green dot and commanded the defense.

Tampa Bay gives linebackers 18.9 tackles per game, 18.8 over the last four weeks, so the number is steady. What changed is how the Buccaneers play. I covered the run-rate jump in the trends, and the details matter here. They run on 52.5% of their plays over the last three weeks, up from 42.3%, and they run out of heavier looks, with 12 personnel on 31.8% of their snaps and 13 on 8.1%. Their yards per carry went to 5.32 and their yards after contact to 3.41 per carry, which means the runs get past the first level and a linebacker makes the tackle. They also run outside on 50.0% of those carries and throw short on 72.7% of their dropbacks over the last three weeks.

Atlanta's defense has moved toward the run too. The Falcons' base defense went from 24.1% on the season to 32.5% over the last three weeks, and nickel dropped from 74.4% to 64.1%. They face a heavy box on 34.4% of snaps over those three weeks, up from 26%. Atlanta plays zone on 72.5% of its snaps over that stretch, so the short throws come to the linebackers' area.

Daniels has been climbing. His snaps went 42, 36, 23, 28, 50, 41, and 65, and his tackles went 4, 3, 3, 3, 8, 7, and 11. That's 39 tackles on 285 snaps, a 13.7% tackle rate, but the last three games are 26 tackles on 156 snaps, a 16.7% tackle rate. Last week was his best, with 65 snaps (23 against the run, 39 in coverage), 11 tackles, 9 of them solo, and 8 targets.

Keep an eye on Deablo’s status, and if he’s out again this week, Daniels is a strong LB2 this week.

Foyesade Oluokun, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Indianapolis Colts)

Indianapolis gives linebackers 20.7 tackles per game on the season, 145 in seven games, and 18.5 over the last four. I want to explain the drop before I lean on the season number. The Colts' average depth of target went from 7.63 on the season to 9.45 over the last three weeks, and their screens fell from 8.2% to 4.1% of their dropbacks. They're throwing deeper and screening less, and that costs linebackers some short-pass tackles. What hasn't moved is the run game. The Colts run on about 40% of their plays, and their 12 and 13 personnel together make up 42.2% of their snaps over the last three weeks. Their yards per carry went from 4.12 to 4.43.

Jacksonville has been getting heavier. The Jaguars' heavy-box rate went from 21.3% to 28.0% over the last three weeks, and base went from 24.1% to 27.1%. I do need to be careful with the short-throw argument here. Jacksonville plays zone on 72.1% of its snaps on the season but only 64.9% over the last three, with man up from 25.8% to 32.5%. So I'm leaning on the run work and the volume more than the short throws.

Oluokun's tackles have gone 4, 7, 6, 7, 10, and 8 on snaps of 32, 56, 50, 71, 59, and 55. That's 42 tackles on 323 snaps, a 13% rate, with 25 solo and 1 TFL. He had 10 in Week 5 with 7 targets and 8 in Week 6 with 22 run-defense snaps. Jacksonville was off last week, so the data stops at Week 6. Ventrell Miller has the other linebacker spot, with 39 tackles on 264 snaps, and his tackles went 3 and 6 in the two most recent games, so Oluokun has been the steadier one.

This is a high-volume, safe linebacker in a good spot. The ceiling is lower than the other three.

Josiah Trotter, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Atlanta Falcons)

Atlanta gives linebackers 18.9 tackles per game on the season, 132 in seven games, and 17.0 over the last four. The drop is worth explaining, because the Falcons' offense has changed. Their run rate fell from 46.8% on the season to 35.6% over the last three weeks, and their runs went from 4.75 yards per carry to 3.81 with an EPA per rush of -0.26. They've also thrown deeper, with their average depth of target going from 6.60 to 7.61 and their short rate from 70.3% to 66.7%. Fewer runs and fewer short throws mean fewer linebacker tackles, and that's what the last four weeks show. What hasn't changed is the personnel. Atlanta used 11 personnel on 52.5% of its snaps over the last three weeks, 12 on 28.8% and 13 on 15.3%, and 14.2% of its dropbacks on the season were screens (9.6% over the last three). It still throws short more than two-thirds of the time.

Tampa Bay plays zone on 81.7% of its snaps on the season and 85.6% over the last three weeks, so the short throws land in front of its linebackers. The Buccaneers were in nickel on 67.0% of their snaps over the last three weeks and in base on 30.8%, so Trotter is on the field either way. The zone snaps allow for Trotter to trigger quicker to short passes and keep him closer to the line of scrimmage.

The reason he's here is the production and the role. His tackles have gone 11, 13, 8, 7, 12, and 10 on snaps of 58, 45, 47, 55, 76, and 52. Trotter was inactive in Week 3. That's 61 tackles on 333 snaps, an 18.3% rate, with 28 solo and 3 TFLs. Over the last three weeks, it's 29 tackles on 183 snaps, a 15.8% rate. In Week 6, he played 76 snaps with 42 in coverage and had 12 tackles, and last week he had 52 snaps with 33 in coverage and 10 tackles on only 2 targets. His lowest game was 7.

I'll be straight about the matchup. It's an average one, and the Falcons have trended down at this spot. The rate is what I'm betting on. A linebacker who's making a tackle on about one of every six snaps doesn't need much help, and he has a floor of 7.

Two Lineback Spots I'm Worried About

Mack Wilson, Arizona Cardinals (at Dallas Cowboys): Dallas gives linebackers 12.9 tackles per game, the fewest among the teams playing, and 13.0 over the last four, so the number is consistent. The Cowboys pass on 66.6% of their plays and use 11 personnel on 74.2% of their snaps over the last three weeks, with 12 and 13 together at only 17.9%. They throw short on 69.2% of their dropbacks but rarely screen, at 6.1% on the season and 4.0% over the last three. Arizona plays zone on 85.1% of its snaps over the last three weeks, so the short throws do land in front of the linebackers, but there aren't many runs to finish. Wilson's role is safe, with 48 to 65 snaps every week, and his tackles went 6, 9, 6, 6, 7, 9, and 3. That's 46 tackles on 399 snaps, an 11.5 rate, and the 3 last week came on 56 snaps with 26 in coverage. He's a fine starter for a team that's playing, but there's a better place for your lineup spot.

Sonny Styles, Washington Commanders (vs. Philadelphia Eagles): Styles is coming off two 13-tackle games before the bye, and that's what makes him tempting. The matchup is the problem. Philadelphia gives linebackers 13.9 tackles per game, 13.5 over the last four, the second fewest among the teams playing. The Eagles run on only 29.7% of their plays over the last three weeks, and when they do, those runs average 3.18 yards per carry with an EPA per rush of -0.25. Their yards before contact are 0.43 per carry, and 33.3% of their carries are stuffed at the line, so the play is over before a linebacker has to make it. They use 11 personnel on 77.5% of their snaps, so Washington is in nickel against them, and they throw short on 73.7% of their dropbacks. Washington plays zone on 72.3% of its snaps over the last three weeks, which means short throws are in his area, so some tackles will come. His 13 in Week 5 included only 3 solo on 82 snaps, and his 13 in Week 6 were 7 solo on 52. Before that, his games were 4, 3, 5, and 7. That's 45 tackles on 349 snaps, a 12.9 rate, and I think the last two weeks are the high end.

Defensive Line Starts For IDP Fantasy Football Week 8

The defensive line picks come from two things: how often the offense gives up pressure and who the rusher is actually facing. The average pressure rate allowed among the teams playing this week is 39.3%. Miami is the highest at 47.4%, and Carolina is at 47.3%, followed by Philadelphia at 46.6%, New England at 45.9%, and Seattle at 44.8%. Atlanta is the lowest at 28.4%, and the Rams are at 28.5%. The table splits each offense's pressure by blocker, and the first thing I noticed is how little the guards and centers matter on these picks. The edge picks come from the tackle spots.

Byron Young, Los Angeles Rams (vs. Los Angeles Chargers)

The Chargers have allowed pressure on 43.0% of their dropbacks on the season and 43.6% over the last four, and they take sacks on 9.5% of their dropbacks. The line is not the one they started the year with. Over the last three weeks, the tackles have been Travis Burke at left tackle and Alex Harkey at right tackle, in place of Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, so check that this is still the case on Friday. Burke has allowed 6 pressures on 45 true pass-set snaps (13.3%), and Harkey has allowed 3 on 35 (8.6%). Those are small samples, but they're the tackles who have played.

Young lines up at RDE on 90.7% of his snaps (313 of 345, against only 29 at LDE), so he's facing Burke on the left. His true pass-set win rate is 28.1%, with 28 pressures and 5 sacks on 106 snaps. He has 32 pressures and 5 sacks on 193 pass-rush snaps for the season. His pressures have gone 2, 4, 6, 6, 4, 3, and 3. The Rams blitz on only 23.2% of their snaps over the last three weeks and rush four on 74.1%, so Young is getting the one-on-one without a lot of help to the other side.

There's a tackle floor too. He has 31 tackles in seven games, going 1, 5, 4, 6, 3, 6, and 6, and the Chargers give edge rushers 14.2 tackles per game, above the 12.4 average. Their outside run rate went from 48.7% on the season to 56.0% over the last three weeks, which sends runs to the edge.

Elijah Ponder, New England Patriots (at Miami Dolphins)

Miami has allowed pressure on 47.4% of its dropbacks on the season, the highest among the teams playing, and 51.2% over the last four. The right tackle is the spot to attack. Austin Jackson has allowed 17 pressures on 101 true pass set snaps (16.8%) with 2 sacks, and over the last four weeks he's at 7 on 42 (16.7%). The left tackle, Patrick Paul, is at 9.9% on the season and 11.9% over the last four, so he isn't a safe place either. Miami also gives edge rushers 14.2 tackles per game.

Ponder lines up at LDE on 51.9% of his snaps (160 of 308) and at RDE on 45.1% (139), so he's facing Jackson on the LDE snaps and Paul on the others. His true pass-set win rate is 22.7%, with 19 pressures and 5 sacks on 84 snaps, and for the season he has 26 pressures and 6 sacks on 180 pass-rush snaps. His pressures have gone 2, 4, 4, 3, 5, 6, and 2. New England blitzes on 41.6% of its snaps over the last three weeks and rushes four on 55.8%, so he's often one of five rushers and Miami's tackle can't focus on him.

Miami's run rate went from 43.8% on the season to 51.6% over the last three weeks, which brings run-defense tackles for an edge rusher. Ponder has 21 tackles on 308 snaps, a 6.8% rate, with 7 TFLs, and his last game was 1 tackle on 54 snaps. The tackle floor is not the reason to start him. It's the matchup and the sack production.

Lukas Van Ness, Green Bay Packers (vs. Carolina Panthers)

Carolina has allowed pressure on 47.3% of its dropbacks on the season, the second highest among the teams playing, and 41.6% over the last four weeks. It's 50.0% when the Panthers get blitzed, and they've taken sacks on 6.6% of their dropbacks (8.8% over the last three weeks). The left tackle is the spot I want. Rasheed Walker has allowed 19 pressures on 133 true pass-set snaps (14.3%) with 2 sacks, and 8 on 59 (13.6%) over the last four weeks. Taylor Moton is out indefinitely, so the right side belongs to a backup. Monroe Freeling has been the tackle who has played there, with 13 pressures allowed on 105 true pass set snaps (12.4%), though he's down to 2 on 32 (6.3%) over the last four weeks. Stone Forsythe is the other tackle with snaps, and he's allowed 2 on 6. Moton had only played 22 true pass-set snaps this season, so the line was already leaning on those backups. Carolina also gives edge rushers 12.5 tackles per game, just above the 12.4 average.

Van Ness lines up on the right side on 77.4% of his snaps (233 of 301, mostly as a right-side edge rusher), and only 44 snaps on the left, so he's facing Walker almost every time. The 44 snaps on the left would put him across from the Moton replacement, which is a soft spot too.

LVN’s true pass-set win rate is 24.4%, with 19 pressures and 4 sacks on 89 snaps. For the season, he has 22 pressures and 4 sacks on 170 pass-rush snaps. Green Bay blitzes on 27.2% of its snaps over the last three weeks and rushes four on 71.3%, so he's getting the one-on-one.

Walker just allowed 3 sacks to Yaya Diaby. This matchup is as good as it gets for Lukas Van Ness.

Josh Hines-Allen, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Indianapolis Colts)

Indianapolis has allowed pressure on 43.3% of its dropbacks on the season and 41.9% over the last four, and the right tackle is the problem. Jalen Travis has allowed 20 pressures on 132 true pass-set snaps (15.2%) with 4 sacks, and 10 on 84 (11.9%) over the last four weeks. The left tackle, Bernhard Raimann, is at 8.1%.

Hines-Allen lines up at LDE on 83.5% of his snaps (237 of 284) and at RDE on 16.2% (46), so he's facing Travis. I need to be honest about his win rate, which is only 16.5% on the true pass set, with 14 pressures and 2 sacks on 91 snaps. He has 17 pressures and 2 sacks on 190 pass-rush snaps for the season, and his pressures went 4, 1, 3, 7, 4, and 4. The matchup is better than the rusher. What makes up for it is the tackle floor. He has 20 tackles on 284 snaps, a 7.0 rate, going 5, 3, 5, 2, 4, and 1, and Indianapolis gives edge rushers 13.3 tackles per game. Jacksonville was off last week.

This is the lowest-ceiling lineman of my four. He's here because the tackle he faces is bad, and he's usually good for a few tackles.

Two Defensive Line Spots I'm Worried About

Tuli Tuipulotu, Los Angeles Chargers (at Los Angeles Rams): The Rams are one of the two best lines on the board, along with Atlanta. They've allowed pressure on 28.5% of their dropbacks on the season and 24.6% over the last four, and they take sacks on 3.7% of their dropbacks. The left tackle, Alaric Jackson, has allowed 6 pressures on 134 true pass set snaps (4.5%) and 1 on 66 (1.5%) over the last four weeks. The right tackle, Warren McClendon Jr., is at 6.6% on the season and 4.8% over the last four. Tuipulotu lines up at RDE on 48.7% of his snaps and LDE on 44.6%, so there is no soft side to find. His true pass set win rate is 22.1%, with 15 pressures and 1 sack on 72 snaps. The Rams also throw short on 73.9% of their dropbacks over the last three weeks, and they give edge rushers only 10.6 tackles per game. His tackles have been steady, going 5, 1, 6, 6, 4 and 4 for 26 in six games, so there's a floor, but there isn't much upside. He had 4 pressures in each of his last two games, and I wouldn't expect more than that.

Yaya Diaby, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Atlanta Falcons): Diaby is coming off a 3-sack game, and that's the reason to be careful. Atlanta allows pressure on 28.4% of its dropbacks on the season, the lowest on the board, and 30.4% over the last four. The left tackle, Jake Matthews, has allowed 8 pressures on 88 true pass set snaps (9.1%) with 3 sacks, and just 3 on 54 (5.6%) over the last four. The right tackle is the weaker one. Jawaan Taylor has allowed 9 pressures on 86 true pass set snaps (10.5%) with 2 sacks, and 6 on 59 (10.2%) over the last four. Diaby lines up at LDE on 74.0% of his snaps (182 of 246), and at RDE on 24.8% (61), so Taylor is the tackle he'll see most. That's the better of the two matchups, and it still isn't a good one, because the offense around Taylor is so good at not allowing pressure. The player is the other half of it. His true pass-set win rate is 12.7%, with 8 pressures and 2 sacks on 57 snaps, and he has 14 pressures and 3 sacks on 140 pass-rush snaps for the season. All 3 of those sacks came last week, on 21 total snaps and 15 pass-rush snaps, along with 4 pressures, 3 tackles, and 3 tackles for loss. Before that, his pressures went 0, 3, 2, 0, 0, and 3, with 2 pressures on 18 pass-rush snaps in Week 3.

I'd treat last week as the high end and not the new normal. The snap count is the other thing to watch. He played 40, 35, 34, 31, and 47 snaps in the five games before that, and last week he was on the field for only 21, and I can't tell from the data why. His tackles went 1, 3, 2, 1, 4, and 3 in the six weeks I have tackle lines for (Week 3 has pressures only), which is 14 on 208 snaps, a 6.7 rate. Tampa Bay blitzes on 38.8% of its snaps over the last three weeks and rushes four on 59.0%, so he does get help. The one thing Atlanta does give up is edge tackles, 14.6 per game, but Diaby doesn't make many of them.

Defensive Backs To Start In IDP Fantasy Football Week 8

For defensive backs, I start with tackles allowed to safeties, and then I look at two more things for each safety: where he actually lines up and what the offense across from him likes to do. The average among the teams playing is 9.1 per game to safeties, 8.3 to outside corners, and 5.6 to slot corners. Chicago leads at 11.7 for safeties, with the Rams at 11.3 and Seattle at 11.1. Minnesota and Buffalo are at 10.7, and Detroit is at 10.5. At the bottom, Denver gives up 5.6, Washington 6.2, Green Bay 7.0, and the Chargers 7.2. For outside corners, Detroit leads at 11, with the Rams at 10.6 and Cincinnati and Jacksonville at 10.3. For slot corners, Arizona is at 7.9, Washington at 7.2, and Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay at 7.

The alignment numbers in the table come from the weekly alignment files and show the share of a player's snaps in the box, at the edge, in the slot, and at deep safety. The line-of-scrimmage percentage is the share of snaps at or near the line, and I'm using the Weeks 5-7 snaps data for it, because the full-season alignment file didn't hold up when I checked it. A safety with a high number is close to the run game and the short throws, and a safety with a low number is mostly playing deep.

Nick Emmanwori, Seattle Seahawks (vs. Chicago Bears)

Chicago gives safeties 11.7 tackles per game, 82 in seven games and 12.3 over the last four, the most among the teams playing. The Bears' offense is built to feed that number. They use 11 personnel on 53.6% of their snaps over the last three weeks, 12 on 28.5% and 13 on 16.4%, and they never use 21. They run on 38.6% of their plays, and 50.0% of those carries go outside. Those runs average 3.39 yards per carry with only 0.78 yards before contact, an EPA per rush of -0.19, and 25.0% of them are stuffed. So the ball carrier gets bottled up early and, when he does bounce outside, a safety is the one who finishes. When they throw, it's short on 72.8% of their dropbacks, with 10.2% screens and an average depth of target of only 6.7.

Seattle's defense is set up to take advantage. The Seahawks play zone on 82.0% of their snaps over the last three weeks, and they were in dime on 23.3% of them, up from 18.3%, so there is an extra defensive back on the field for those short throws.

Emmanwori is the safety who lives near the ball. In the alignment file, he's in the box on 39.6% of his snaps, at the edge on 23.0% and in the slot on 32.6%, and he's deep on only 0.7%. That's across Weeks 3, 5, and 6, which are the weeks the file has him, and over the last two of those it's 46.3% in the box, 36.1% in the slot, and 0.9% deep. The snaps data agrees. His line-of-scrimmage rate was 98.1% in Week 4, then 98.1%, 94.5%, and 98.0% in Weeks 5, 6, and 7, so he's been at the line in every game since. A safety who is almost never deep is the one who is in the way of a Chicago bounce run and a Chicago screen.

Week 1 he was inactive, and in Week 2 he played only 9 snaps. Since then, he has had 2 tackles on 34 snaps in Week 3, 9 on 53 in Week 4, then 4, 7, and 4 on 53, 55, and 50 snaps in Weeks 5 through 7. That's 26 tackles on 245 snaps, a 10.6% rate, with 19 solo, and he's been targeted 18 times. Week 4 was his best game, with 9 tackles (8 solo), a sack and 4 pressures on only 8 pass-rush snaps.

He has played at least 50 snaps in each of the last four games, and his line-of-scrimmage rate has been 98% or so the whole time. The rate isn't a long track record, but the best matchup on the board and a role this close to the ball is why he's first.

Dane Belton, New York Jets (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)

Las Vegas gives safeties 9.6 tackles per game, a little above the 9.1 average, and 10.5 over the last four. The more interesting part is the personnel. The Raiders use 12 personnel on 69.2% of their snaps over the last three weeks, the most of any offense in my DB table, with 11 on only 7.1%, 13 on 3.8%, and 21 on 8.2%. Two tight ends on most snaps means the offense can run or throw from the same look, and the defense has to keep a safety close to cover the second tight end and to fit the run.

They don't run much. It's only 28.6% of their plays over the last three weeks. But 46.2% of those carries go outside; they average an EPA per rush of -0.32 and 23.1% get stuffed. That's an offense that doesn't win with the run, so the run tackles come from the carries that do break outside. They throw short on 62.7% of their dropbacks with 11.5% screens and a 7.5 average depth of target. The Jets play zone on 61.7% of their snaps over the last three weeks, so those short throws and screens come to defenders who are playing in front of the ball.

Belton is the least settled of the four. Over the season he's deep on 63.5% of his snaps (box 18.5%, slot 7.0%, edge 3.8%), and over the last three weeks that's down to 46.9% deep and 20.9% in the box. The week-by-week line-of-scrimmage rate shows why: 29.7% in Week 5, 32.4% in Week 6, and then 96.8% in Week 7. Two weeks as a deep safety and one week almost entirely at the line. I don't know whether the Week 7 look was the plan or a response to what the Jets were facing, and so I wouldn't assume he's a box safety every week. What I can say is that his tackles didn't depend on it. He had 8, 9, and 9 in those three games, with 9 coming from the deep role in Week 6 and 9 from the line role in Week 7.

His tackles have gone 2, 6, 7, 14, 8, 9, and 9 on snaps of 49, 50, 64, 89, 64, 68, and 64. That's 55 tackles on 448 snaps, a 12.3 rate, with 28 solo, and he's been targeted only 15 times. The 14 tackles on 89 snaps in Week 4 stands out, and I wouldn't count on it again, but he's been at 8 or more in each of the last three games. The role has two safe paths here. If he's at the line, he's fitting runs and screens against a heavy personnel group, and if he's deep, he's cleaning up the throws that get past the first level.

Brian Branch, Detroit Lions (vs. Minnesota Vikings)

Minnesota gives safeties 10.7 tackles per game, 64 in six games, and 12.3 over the last four. The Vikings run on 45.2% of their plays over the last three weeks, the most of the offenses I'm picking against, and they use 11 personnel on 58.9% of their snaps, 12 on 15.3% and 21 on 15.3%. The 21 personnel puts two backs in the backfield, which is a run look. Their runs average an EPA per rush of -0.21 and 25.0% get stuffed, but only 35.7% of their carries go outside, so more of their runs are inside, where the safety in the box makes the tackle. When they throw, it's short on only 60.4% of their dropbacks, but with 13.2% screens and a 7.5-yard average depth of target.

I need to give the other side, because Detroit's coverage has changed. The Lions play zone on 55.6% of their snaps over the last three weeks, down from 69.8% on the season, and man went from 25.0% to 35.4%. Nickel went from 51.9% to 57.4%. Man coverage and more nickel mean the safeties spend more time matched on players and less time sitting in zones, so the short-throw case is weaker here than for the other three, and Branch's case is the run game and where he lines up.

Branch was on the PUP list in Week 4, and last week is the only game I have him in, a 43-snap game after Detroit's Week 6 bye. His line-of-scrimmage rate was 100%. In the alignment file, he was in the box on 16.3% of his snaps, at the edge on 9.3%, and in the slot on 18.6%. The file has two conflicting deep-safety rows for him, so I'm not going to quote a deep number. Everything else says he's playing near the line, in the slot, and the box, which is the part of the field where a Minnesota run or screen ends.

He had 4 tackles on 43 snaps (1 solo) and wasn't targeted, so that's the whole sample, and 9.3 per 100 snaps is not a number I'd bet on by itself. The snap count is the risk. Chuck Clark played 53 snaps in the same game, which is a shared role, but I think Branch's snaps will grow. I'm picking Branch because of the role and the matchup (a run-heavy offense with two-back looks) and not because of what he has done.

Caleb Downs, Dallas Cowboys (vs. Arizona Cardinals)

Arizona gives safeties 9.7 tackles per game, 10.8 over the last four, and it gives slot corners 7.9, the most among the teams playing. That second number matters because Downs has the highest slot share of any safety I'm covering. The Cardinals use 11 personnel on 55.6% of their snaps over the last three weeks and 13 on 34.7%, with 12 on 9.3% and 21 on 0.5%. The 13 personnel is the one to notice: three tight ends on about a third of their snaps, which means extra blockers on the field and the runs that come off it need extra defenders to fit them. They run on 34.3% of their plays, with 47.3% of the carries going outside, an EPA per rush of -0.12, and 25.7% of their carries stuffed. They throw short on 67.7% of their dropbacks with 7.7% screens and a 7.9 average depth of target, the deepest of the matchups I'm picking.

Dallas plays zone on 69.9% of its snaps over the last three weeks, so the short throws come into zones the safeties and nickel are covering.

Downs is the most versatile of the four. Over the season, he's in the slot on 42.7% of his snaps, deep on 27.2%, in the box on 21.0%, and at the edge on 1.6%, and over the last three weeks it's 42.6% slot, 30.9% deep, and 18.1% box. The weekly line-of-scrimmage rate flipped, though. It was 41.5% in Week 5, then 80.0% and 81.1% in Weeks 6 and 7. So the last two weeks he's been near the line, and the week he played more deep, he had his lowest tackle game of the three (4). In the last two weeks, he had 12 and 5.

His tackles have gone 8, 9, 3, 7, 4, 12, and 5 on snaps of 60, 67, 58, 52, 65, 70, and 53. That's 48 tackles on 425 snaps, an 11.3 rate, with 29 solo, and he's been targeted 19 times. The floor has been 3, and it came in the one week he was mostly deep. The slot role is what makes this a good spot. A slot defender faces the short throw and the screen, and Arizona's slot number is the highest on the board.

Two Defensive Back Spots I'm Worried About

Andrew Mukuba, Philadelphia Eagles (at Washington Commanders): Washington gives safeties 6.2 tackles per game, 37 in six games, the fewest among the teams playing, and 4.7 over the last four. The Commanders run on 30.6% of their plays over the last three weeks, down from 37.0%, and they use 11 personnel on 62.0% of their snaps. They throw short on 70.7%, but with only 4.8% screens. Their runs do work (an EPA per rush of +0.11, the only positive one of the offenses in this table), but they happen too infrequently and 21.6% get stuffed, so the run game isn't generating safety tackles. Mukuba's alignment doesn't help him either. He's deep on 57.7% of his snaps for the season and 70.5% over the last three weeks, with a line-of-scrimmage rate of 19.1%, 33.8%, and 32.3%, so the tackles come after the play has already gotten away. His tackles went 1, 6, 9, 4, 3, 8 and 7 on 68, 50, 69, 77, 68, 75 and 66 snaps. That's 38 tackles on 473 snaps, an 8.0 rate. He's on the field for almost every play, but the matchup and the alignment both point the wrong way.

Quentin Lake, Los Angeles Rams (vs. Los Angeles Chargers): I want to be clear that this is about the matchup and not the player. Lake has been very consistent, with tackles of 10, 7, 6, 6, 6, 7, and 7 on 64, 55, 62, 58, 58, 70, and 65 snaps. That's 49 tackles on 432 snaps, an 11.3 rate, with 32 solo. He's been targeted 39 times, which is the most of my six safeties, and his line-of-scrimmage rate went from 38.6% to 77.1% and then 100%. The Chargers give safeties only 7.2 tackles per game, 6.3 over the last four, and 7.0 to outside corners. They throw short on 70.2% of their dropbacks with 14.5% screens, but their average depth of target is only 6.2, and that hasn't turned into tackles for safeties. Their run game is different from the others, with 21 personnel on 19.8% of their snaps and 56.0% of the carries going outside, and 26.0% of their carries get stuffed. The Rams use dime on 54.5% of their snaps over the last three weeks, so Lake should be on the field, and he's a floor of 6 that I'd keep starting if I had nothing better.

Published Oct 28, 2026, 4:02 AM ET