Ian Hartitz saddles up the Indianapolis Colts the 2025 team preview and fantasy football outlook.

2024 was supposed to be the season where the Colts made a serious case as the best team in the AFC South. After all, an offense mostly led by Gardner Minshew had helped the team finish 9-8 and one Week 18 victory away from capturing the division in 2023, so why wouldn't head coach Shane Steichen's second season in charge lead to even better results?

Sadly, a mediocre (to be nice) performance from former fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson, combined with a lackluster defense, prevented Indy from really ever being a serious playoff contender.

Indianapolis Colts in 2024:

  • Points per game: 22.2 (17th)
  • EPA per dropback: -0.03 (24th)
  • EPA per rush: -0.07 (16th)
  • Points per game against: 25.1 (24th)

Fast forward to 2025, and suddenly Richardson's status as the team's long-term answer under center seems murky at best due to soreness in his surgically repaired right (throwing) shoulder and the newfound presence of Daniel Jones. Still, a concerted effort to improve the defense courtesy of high-dollar free agent additions CB Charvarius Ward and S Cam Bynum, as well as top-80 draft picks DE JT Tuimoloau and CB Justin Walley, makes it clear the Colts remain steadfast in attempting to capture their first playoff victory in the post-Andrew Luck era.

This brings us to today's goal: Answering key (mostly fantasy-related) questions about the Colts ahead of their 2025 season.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Note: All referenced ADP (in parentheses) is Underdog, via our Fantasy Life ADP Tool. For our full fantasy football rankings as well as early Week 1 rankings, head to our rankings hub.

Indianapolis Colts 2025 Fantasy Football And Team Preview

Who is about to win this QB competition?

Well, the injury gods might decide for us: Learned doctors believe Richardson's latest right shoulder injury carries "major concern" and "high risk of re-aggravation given history and playing style." Steichen has said there is no timetable on the return, although he does expect the 23-year-old back at some point during camp.

This potential extended absence will allow for more practice reps for Jones and seemingly an improved chance to become the team's eighth different Week 1 starting QB in the last nine years, which is truly a hilarious sentence to type out.

Non-injury-related performance could also simply get Jones the job. After all, the ex-Giant signed a one-year deal worth up to $14.5 million with the Colts to "create real competition" per GM Chris Ballard himself. This makes sense: Richardson's league-worst accuracy left a lot to be desired last season.

 

Obviously, Jones isn't exactly the world's most proven professional thrower of the football himself, but man, that peak in 2022 that culminated with 379 total yards and a pair of scores in an upset win at Minnesota was at least something!

Jones wouldn't be the first talented QB failed by a less-than-stellar organization (at least in recent years). The man was picked sixth overall back in the day for a reason and theoretically has the ability to stress defenses both horizontally and vertically. Shane Steichen has largely gotten the most out of guys like Carson Wentz (27 TDs!), Gardner Minshew (7-6 as a starter!), and Joe Flacco (265 pass yards per game!) in recent years. Who's to say Jones won't be his latest reclamation project?

This is quietly a pretty solid offensive environment. PFF's reigning 12th-ranked offensive line is complemented by a good-not-great Green Bay-esque WR core featuring Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, and Adonai Mitchell. Add it all together, and this has been the league's 14th-ranked supporting cast in back-to-back seasons.

Of course, both Jones and Richardson have been at their best when using their legs over the years.

QB most fantasy points per game from purely rushing 2022-24:

But man, all of this aside: The Colts' QB battle is now between the bottom-two QBs in passer rating over the past two years. Not great!

Bottom line: In terms of singular QB upside, fantasy managers should be rooting for Richardson to win the job, but as we learned last year, it's far from a given that he'll have anything close to a long leash even if the injury somehow doesn't become a factor.

That latter point could potentially really help Jones not get yanked the first time he has a rough couple of quarters in a row. The artist known as Vanilla Vick has a 120-708-8 rushing season to his name and is one of only 12 QBs to average 30+ rushing yards per game for his career in the Super Bowl era. Just based on best-case upside, I at least like Jones' ADP QB30 much more than either Giants/Saints QB or Aaron Rodgers.

Is Jonathan Taylor this year's Saquon Barkley?

AKA could Taylor be this year's workhorse second-round fantasy RB who finally gets back to putting up the sort of gargantuan numbers we know they're capable of achieving thanks in large part to staying healthy for a change?

Look, the Colts offense obviously doesn't exactly challenge the Eagles when it comes to scoring upside and offensive line play, but we're still talking about the league's 14th-best offense in total points scored during the last two seasons and PFF's reigning 12th-ranked offensive line. In fact, only the Eagles and Ravens have been better than Quenton Nelson and Co. when it comes to RBs racking up yards *before* contact in recent years.

Reminder: JT ran for 1,431 yards and 11 TD in just 14 games last season (102.2 yards per game!), but most in the fantasy community simply remember him dropping the ball short of the goal line in Week 15 against the Broncos.

I get it: That sucked. But man, we've seen basically nothing other than injuries stop Taylor from working as one of the game's most productive backs in recent seasons. His 2,171 total yards and 20 TDs in 2021 were the result of his last fully healthy campaign—unfortunately, the 26-year-old talent has been forced to battle through one early-season injury after another during the last three years:

  • 2022: Grade 2 ankle sprain in Week 4, suffered season-ending high-ankle sprain in Week 15.
  • 2023: Started year on IR with back (contract?) injury, torn thumb ligament in Week 12.
  • 2024: Grade 3 high-ankle sprain in Week 4.

The NFL's No. 5 all-time leader in rushing yards per game (!), Taylor joins Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson as the only RBs Fantasy Life projects to clear 300 touches this season. It wouldn't be too surprising if the reigning RB7 in PPR points per game manages to improve on that feat with good health in 2025.

Behind JT…

  • Advanced nerd metrics gawd Khalil Herbert signed a minor one-year, $1.4 million deal with just $482,500 guaranteed. He showed some juice with the Bengals in an offense that runs similar run schemes with the Colts, although a roster spot still doesn't seem like a certainty.
  • Speedy fifth-round rookie DJ Giddens posted a promising 58-679-4 receiving line in three years at Kansas State and earned a solid Zach Charbonnet comp from Fantasy Life's Thor Nystrom. The 21-year-old is a special athlete and arguably the favorite for RB2 duties.
  • Incumbent backup Tyler Goodson has just 62 touches in two years, splitting reps with Trey Sermon and/or Zack Moss when Taylor has been sidelined. While he almost assuredly won't get a fantasy-viable handcuff role, the pass-down familiarity could threaten the other RBs' overall ceilings.

Jonathan Taylor 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook

Taylor is someone I've happily scooped up in Round 2 of fantasy drafts this offseason, ESPECIALLY if the top-11 WRs are already off the board. The allure goes up in half-PPR and standard leagues: I fully consider JT to be in the same tier as guys like Derrick Henry and Ashton Jeanty.

Giddens is a reasonable LATE-round dart with the upside to work as the offense's lead back should Taylor miss additional time. It's far from guaranteed he'll emerge as the No. 2 RB or be given a three-down role in the event a starting opportunity emerges, but hey, beggars can't be choosers in Round 16. 

Who is the best target in this muddled WR room?

Let's meet our contenders!

Josh Downs: Overcame ankle, toe, and shoulder injuries to work as the Colts' top receiver in PPR points per game (13.1, WR29) last season. The movement skillz here are special and allow Downs to create separation at will: Only Malik Nabers, Mike Evans, and A.J. Brown had a higher "Open Rating" in 2024.

Michael Pittman: Pulled a Mike Tyson and played through a lower-back fracture throughout last season. This adds some context to four-year lows in receptions, yards, and TDs. Pittman had previously finished as fantasy's WR24, WR22, and WR14 in PPR points per game before last year's WR45 mark.

Alec Pierce: F*cked around and led the Colts in receiving yards last season. Yes, most of this was via deep shots down the field, but that doesn't make the NFL's reigning leader in yards per reception (22.3) and yards per target (11.9) any less likely to continue to hold down the fort as the team's field-stretching X receiver.

Adonai Mitchell: The Colts' 2024 second-round pick had possibly the best 23-312-0 season of all time. This is because of how open Mitchell seemingly always was despite the obvious lack of counting numbers: Nobody had a higher percentage of their open-air yards be deemed uncatchable last season (per Fantasy Points). This was one of the more depressing cutups I've ever made.

Bottom line: Downs and Pittman deserve to be treated as the top dogs here, especially with Daniel Jones' lower aDOT tendencies compared to Anthony Richardson. The former is my fourth-most drafted WR of the offseason over at Underdog, and the latter is my eighth. Good players with the potential to breeze past triple-digit targets at a WR4/5 price tag—sign me up!

Pierce and Mitchell are more so late-round darts who have the potential to eat into each other's playing time. The former veteran deserves the edge, but either way, we're likely looking at boom-or-bust WR4 types in a best-case scenario. I usually prefer to draft handcuff RBs or shore up the onesie positions as opposed to taking shots on these sorts of low-floor WRs late in drafts.

Question 4: Is Tyler Warren the next big-time rookie TE?

The Penn State wrecking ball was considered TE1 of this class by many before Colston Loveland ultimately earned that honor.

Regardless of which rookie TE you prefer: It's tough to deny that both are pretty, pretty, pretty great prospects. In Warren's case, the 23-year-old talent checks virtually every box you could want for a TE:

  • Receiving ability: Fifth-year breakout be damned: It's not normal to see players at the position post a season-long 104-1233-8 receiving line. Warren's ability to win at the catch point is particularly enticing. 
  • Blocking: There's no questioning Warren's willingness to embrace the dirty work at the position. In fact, he seems to love it. With 414 of his 916 snaps coming inline (45%), there's no concern here about Warren being pigeonholed as a "big slot" type at the next level.
  • After the catch: From hurdles, to running through contact, to making plays as a wildcat QB: Warren was lethal with the football in his hands during his time at Happy Valley. After all, the man led college football in yards per carry (8.7) while also posting top-10 numbers in yards after contact per carry, explosive run rate, and missed tackles forced per rush!

While the Colts have regularly rotated three-plus options at the position over the years, it'd make a lot of sense if Warren commands a true full-time role after, you know, being selected with the 14th overall pick of the draft.

Tyler Warren 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook

Warren's potential range of outcomes in 2025 seemingly goes from No. 3 or 4 overall target in a meh passing game … to THE featured receiver inside an offense that has generally gotten the most out of its QBs under Steichen. I (and the rest of the Fantasy Life rankers) don't overly agree with Warren's standing as the TE11 in early drafts, but I must admit the idea of fully fading the rookie frightens me.

Are mediocre offenses better than great ones when targeting fantasy kickers?

I hate kickers and believe they shouldn't be a part of fantasy OR real-life football. Larry David explains why I'm right in this incredible clip.

That said: Many good people still sadly insist on playing in fantasy leagues with them. I too am forced to do so in a few leagues. Sigh.

Anyway, it was probably while making one of these stupid kicker lineup decisions when a thought popped into my head: Are kickers in mid real-life offenses actually better fantasy assets? We want field goals over extra points, so target teams that are good enough to move the ball down the field into field goal range without consistently punching the ball into the end zone?

Answer: It actually does seem like targeting mid-level offenses might be a good idea! The average team scoring rank for top-12 fantasy kickers over the last five years is 11.6 (median: 10), but narrowing down to the top-six kickers actually causes the average (12.3) and median (13) team scoring marks to move down!

This is unique relative to top players at other positions. The top fantasy kickers (top six) have actually been negatively correlated with their scoring offense!

We'll find out if something named Spencer Shrader can take advantage of this trend and supply some underrated fantasy upside for the Colts; either way this reality makes it VERY advisable to wait as long as possible to draft the position.

Prediction For The Colts 2025 Season

The Colts sport a lowly 7.5 win total, a mark which they've cleared in four of the last five seasons. Sadly, this is the one AFC South squad seemingly moving in the wrong direction; give me the under for a team with anyone's idea of a bottom-five QB room.

As for my bold fantasy prediction: Jonathan Taylor plays 15-plus games for the first time since 2021 and returns a top-five half-PPR finish to his loyal fantasy managers.