Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Fantasy Football Matchup Breakdown For Week 1

• Spread: Chiefs -2.5
• O/U: 43.5
• Score Prediction (from the Fantasy Life NFL Betting Model):  DEN 22, KC 21

Denver Broncos Fantasy Preview 

Probably too soon to say, but I’m putting it out there anyway. Just like a son finally beating his old man in a game of driveway basketball for the first time, a torch has been passed out west. For the first time in forever, the Broncos are better than the Chiefs. Spread the word.

It all obviously starts and ends with this vaunted defensive unit, but the offense remains their silent killer. Another really well-put-together team in terms of archetypal roles, Denver can beat you in a bunch of different ways. Whether it's Courtland Sutton over the top, Pat Bryant over the middle, or newest Bronco Jaylen Waddle underneath, suddenly every blade of grass warrants defense. 

For as optimistic as that came off, however, it should come with fair warning in fantasy, especially Week 1 without current data — and perhaps going double when facing a defense this tough. Outside of Jaylen Waddle, trying to time which DEN wideout to start and when is going to make GMs’ heads spin all year.

The RB room also possesses a thunder-and-lightning quality to it, featuring J.K. Dobbins between the tackles (5.0 yards/attempt, 52.0% success rate, 11.1% explosive rush) juxtaposed to RJ Harvey in a pass-catching role (22.9% target/route, 1.4 yards/route). There’s something for everyone, making Denver a massive threat in almost any contextual situation.

I’d add the brilliant selection of potential three-down banger RB Jonah Coleman, who adds yet another contingency element as well — a much-needed backup plan, if and when Dobbins goes down (sorry to put that negativity in universe). 

Without Dobbins from Week 11 on, DEN’s yard/attempt dropped a full yard from 4.8 to 3.8. That’s a tremendous difference to the downside, and definitely something that can come back to haunt you when the weather gets cold and the chips are down.

Mentioned Kansas City’s defense only briefly but don’t confuse the brevity for hand-waving — they’re awesome. And the rich get richer, as the sixth-best scoring defense with the fourth-lowest explosive play rate allowed adds two first-rounders, including stud CB Mansoor Delane out of LSU at #6 overall. KC also signed another 3 or 4 starters this offseason to bolster an already stout defense spearheaded by Chris Jones, George Karlaftis, and Drue Tranquill. Whoa. Circle this squad as one to avoid …

• Start: Jaylen Waddle (WR23), Bo Nix (QB18)
• Sit: Courtland Sutton (WR34), J.K. Dobbins (RB33)
• Sleeper: RJ Harvey (RB38)

Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Preview 

Fading the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes generally ends one way … crying yourself to sleep in a tear-soaked pillow without a cent left to your name. Well, you gotta risk it for the biscuit — that’s my story, and I’m sticking to it. 

Do I think Mahomes, the generational superstar and guaranteed first-ballot Hall of Famer, is suddenly bad at football? Of course not; I just think we’re witnessing a new iteration of a once high-flying offense that resulted in three championships, plus a couple of MVP awards. 

In what almost feels to me as being overly telegraphed, the Chiefs’ offseason moves spoke for themselves, highlighted by the signing of Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker to a three-year, $43.05 million contract. You think they intend on running the ball? I’d say so …

I already mentioned the virtual avalanche of defensive acquisitions, further pairing intentions with the Walker signing — the goal’s to win ugly in low-scoring contests. Meanwhile, despite league-average results in every critical receiving metric, KC only added former Patriot and deep threat Tyquan Thornton to presumably compete for WR3 duties with fifth-round rookie out of Cincinnati Cyrus Allen. What could go wrong? 

Once the owner of the prettiest and most effective deep ball in the game, Mahomes failed to dominate downfield again, finishing 17th among starters in deep shot EPA/attempt (+0.48). Xavier Worthy's been disappointing (career 18.4% target/route, 1.26 yards/route); Rashee Rice also looks slow off the ball recovering from a knee procedure, not to mention true concerns about an ability (or lack thereof) to beat press coverage at the line. That leaves us with old reliable Travis Kelce, plus a -EV coin flip on the potential deep threats brought on board this offseason. Temper expectations, and prepare to regret drafting Mahomes over Jaxson Dart

• Start: Kenneth Walker (RB12), Travis Kelce (TE10)
• Sit: Rashee Rice (WR14), Xavier Worthy (WR52), Patrick Mahomes (QB19)
• Sleeper: Cyrus Allen (WR84)

Next Week’s Bold Headlines, Today

• Pass the torch; there’s a new sheriff in the AFC West. If defense wins championships, the Broncos should think about making room on the mantle.
• Beaten up after a heartbreaking loss, Kansas City’s now winless versus Denver in four straight. Once again, it’s the lack of WR weaponry that holds them back. Oh, how the mighty have fallen …