Kyler Murray And J.J. McCarthy In Minnesota Vikings QB1 Competition
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Kyler Murray And J.J. McCarthy In Minnesota Vikings QB1 Competition

Ian Hartitz breaks down the QB competition for the Minnesota Vikings between Kyler Murray and J.J. McCarthy

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We all thought that Justin Jefferson was QB proof. We found out that's not true last year, after J-Jettas slogged through the J.J. McCarthy experience. Not great. In comes Kyler Murray on a one-year, prove-it deal, and the early talk is that HC Kevin O'Connell may be just the elixir to get Murray to finally live up to his vast potential. But first, he has to win a QB competition with the artist known as "Nine." Ian Hartitz breaks it down as part of his Minnesota Vikings Team Preview.

MIN_vikings-logo.svgCan KOC bring out the best in Kyler Murray?

You'd like to think so, considering the pretty awesome results for every Vikings QB that he's coached … other than McCarthy. Of course, Murray hasn't exactly been playing to the best of his abilities in recent years. His highs in 2020 and 2021 were quite awesome and helped him secure that initial $230.5 million bag from the Cardinals, but unfortunately, things simply haven't been as good in recent years.

We can see this quite clearly with adjusted net yards per attempt, which factors in touchdowns, interceptions, and sacks into the traditional pass yards-per-attempt equation.

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So yeah, REALLY not great in 2025—BUT it's also not like we've been looking at an overly stable situation here both in terms of Kyler's offensive environment as well as his own health.

  • Murray suffered a torn ACL on Dec. 12, 2022
  • HC Kliff Kingsbury was fired following the 2022 season
  • The Cardinals hired HC Jonathan Gannon and OC Drew Petzing prior to the 2023 season
  • Murray suffered a foot injury in early 2025 that landed him on the sideline for what wound up being the entire season

Of course, the latter injury was viewed as a "soft benching" with Jacoby Brissett generally doing a good job of leading this passing offense. This is the toughest obstacle for Kyler truthers to get around: Our most recent sample size of the 2025 season was ROUGH any way you cut it.

That said: There's still reason for optimism thanks to three key factors.

1. Some advanced stats still painted Murray in a positive light in 2025. Specifically, EPA per dropback (+0.06, 15th) and PFF passing grade (69.5, tied 22nd). The former mark was better than guys like Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert, while the latter cleared the likes of Lamar Jackson, Daniel Jones and Baker Mayfield.

2. This remains one of the position's most dangerous rushers. Last season, Murray actually averaged his most rushing yards per game (34.6) since his ACL injury. The film reflects the reality that this is still a dangerous man in the open field. Overall, Murray's average of 8.5 yards per scramble was good for the position's eighth-best mark last season and ranked ahead of guys like Patrick Mahomes and Jaxson Dart.

3. Kyler didn't get a ton of help from his friends last season. Specifically alleged generational WR Marvin Harrison Jr., who had some rough (and I mean ROUGH) moments early in 2025. Overall, this Cardinals offense simply wasn't very QB-friendly. They finished 28th in my "Supporting Cast Rating," which is the average of every team's rank in PFF rushing, receiving, run-blocking and pass-blocking grades (everything except passing).

Good news: Minnesota finished 13th in Supporting Cast Rating last year! You could even argue they're higher when considering the schematic impact that renowned QB whisperer Kevin O'Connell has had on his passing games over the years. The potential for Kyler to improve his passing thanks to this new-and-improved offensive environment and keep on keeping on as a rusher paints the picture of an exciting late-ish round fantasy QB option in 2026.

Reminder: 31 of 34 QBs to rack up 100-plus rush attempts in a season since 2014 posted top-12 fantasy numbers on a per-game basis. That's a 91% hit rate!

Of course, Murray will need to hold onto the job for long enough to rack up this fantasy-friendly volume. To McCarthy's credit: The Michigan man did improve as the season went on, albeit it's probably not a coincidence that his best games came against some of the league's worst defenses (note that the Packers rested their starters in Week 18).

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The path to success for Murray is there—and his mid-QB2 price tag is affordable enough—although there are at least *some* 2025 Justin Fields vibes in terms of the fantasy public perhaps being a bit too confident in the length of the leash being afforded. The Fantasy Life crew has him ranked as high as QB15, and as low as QB18, making Murray a solid late-round target, albeit not someone to chase too far up the ole ranks.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Kyler Murray
    KylerMurray
    QBMINMIN
    PPG
    16.2
    Proj
    289.5
  2. J.J. McCarthy
    J.J.McCarthy
    QBMINMIN
    PPG
    12.7
    Proj
    22.8
  3. Justin Jefferson
    JustinJefferson
    WRMINMIN
    PPG
    9.4
    Proj
    218.1
  4. Joe Burrow
    JoeBurrow
    QBCINCIN
    PPG
    17.4
    Proj
    307.9

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