Ian Hartitz goes deep with the Las Vegas Raiders team preview and fantasy football outlook.

Vibes were relatively high in Las Vegas following a 2023 season that featured interim head coach Antonio Pierce lead the team to a 5-4 finish while re-establishing "The Raider Way." A 2-2 start in 2024 included a lethal survivor pool win in Baltimore, creating more general optimism around a franchise that hasn't won a playoff game since 2003 (yikes).

… and then Pierce and Co. dropped their next 10 games while looking a lot like one of the worst teams in the NFL.

Las Vegas Raiders in 2024:

  • Points per game: 18.2 (29th)
  • EPA per dropback: -0.06 (28th)
  • EPA per rush: -0.28 (32nd)
  • Points per game against: 25.5 (25th)

Fast forward to present day, and suddenly 73-year-old Pete Carroll is leading a Raiders offense now relying on QB Geno Smith and sixth-overall pick Ashton Jeanty. Throw in incumbent blue-chippers like Brock Bowers and Maxx Crosby, and at least this year's version of the Raiders figures to have some semblance of a pulse on both sides of the ball.

This brings us to today's goal: Answering key (mostly fantasy related) questions about the Raiders ahead of their 2025 season.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Las Vegas Raiders Fantasy Football And Team Preview

Does the mainstream media need to give Geno Smith more respect?

On the one hand, Smith needs to cut down on some of his mistakes in 2025.

  • Smith's 18 turnover-worthy plays were tied with Jameis Winston for the sixth-highest mark in the league.
  • Only Baker Mayfield (16) and Kirk Cousins (16) threw more INTs than Jeremiah Smith's cousin (15).
  • Nobody threw more red Red Zone INTs than Smith (4).
  • Only Caleb Williams and C.J. Stroud lost more yardage from sacks than Smith.

On the other hand, PFF's reigning 31st-ranked offensive line in Seattle didn't do Geno any favors, and turnover-worthy plays tend to happen more often when you have a gunslinger like him under center. The amount of dead-in-the-water plays that Smith actually managed to save over the last few seasons is truly wild.

The latter point is where the idea that Smith is vastly underrated comes into play: The man has a way of completing throws that many QBs wouldn't even dream of trying. This has accordingly led to consistent high-end excellence when it comes to completion percentage *over* expected.

Geno completion percentage over expected:

  • 2024: +5.6% (No. 4)
  • 2023: +2.4% (No. 11)
  • 2022: +5.6% (No. 1)

Turning 35 in October, Smith isn't a spring chicken these days, but that hasn't stopped him from averaging a solid 16.2 rushing yards per game over the past three seasons—more than guys like Justin Herbert (14.5) and Baker Mayfield (13.7) during the same span.

It remains to be seen exactly how much OC Chip Kelly will lean on the Raiders' passing attack—his offenses in Philly and San Fran ranked 27th, 5th, 6th, and 29th, respectively, in pass attempts—but the ex-Seahawk veteran certainly constitutes a quantifiable upgrade over the sad excuses for QB rooms that the Raiders have deployed since parting ways with Derek Carr.

Bottom line: I'd bet that even Smith's biggest truthers aren't exactly expecting him to put forward top-10 numbers in fantasy land this season, but man, the current QB26 price tag pits him after statuesque passers like Matthew Stafford, Tua Tagovailoa, and Michael Penix. I do prefer targeting Smith over this group of passers and am highest on him among all the Fantasy Life rankers (QB21), although he's still really only a later-round target in superflex or best ball formats that require drafters to take multiple QBs.

How high is too high to draft Ashton Jeanty in fantasy land?

All the 2025 NFL Draft's sixth overall pick did in his final season at Boise State was come within 28 rushing yards of breaking Barry Sanders' single-season college football record. The man did so in style: From 2015 to 2023 the best single-season mark in missed tackles forced on rush attempts was held by Bijan Robinson with 104, and in 2024 Jeanty forced … 152 missed tackles. That's a lot!

This produced quite the analytical prospect profile, as Jeanty now finds himself in the Fantasy Life Rookie RB Super Model's Mount Rushmore.

Highest ratings in the Fantasy Life Rookie RB Super Model 2018-2025:

Fantasy Life Draft Expert Thor Nystrom is also on the hype train, noting the following about his third-ranked overall player before the draft:

"Jeanty doesn’t have the like-water agility of Barry Sanders. Jeanty parries flurries of cuts together in space, painting a herky-jerky mirage for defenders. If you think of Sanders like a fish in a creek, you can think of Jeanty like an armored knight slalom skiing.

"Jeanty picks up speed as he goes, but is capable of immediately making 90-degree direction changes, or flipping directions violently repeatedly while retaining speed and body control.

"In the beat after contact, and immediately out of cuts, Jeanty has an instant-acceleration button to get himself back into space. Jeanty has solid long speed, but it’s not elite. The elite trait is Jeanty’s ability to access top speed in a few steps.

"Behind the line, Jeanty’s style forces second-level defenders to choose their gaps before he does. Once they’ve made their decision, Jeanty ensures it’s the wrong one. Defending Jeanty is an exercise in frustration – at every turn, you are set up to fail."

It certainly seems likely that the Raiders give Jeanty every opportunity to work as their featured RB. This has usually been the case when a team has spent top-10 draft capital on the position.

Perhaps the real game-changing feature here will be Jeanty's receiving ability. While the 2024 numbers dropped off, that seemed like a conscious decision from Boise State to try to chase Sanders' record. Reminder: Jeanty averaged north of three yards per route run in 2023–something only Christian McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs have also managed to do over the last decade.

Ashton Jeanty Fantasy Football Outlook

Jeanty is someone I've ranked as high as RB3 and as low as RB7 this offseason. My primary issue is the expectation for the Raiders to be the worst scoring offense among the early-round RBs—and historically we've seen elite RB fantasy production be strongly correlated to a team's overall scoring rank. It's tough to overly bicker with any RB poised to see north of 300 touches with good health; just realize guys like Jahmyr Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, De'Von Achane, and Derrick Henry are also pretty good at football themselves, making it tough for me to rationalize always prioritizing Jeanty ahead of them on a pure talent bet.

As for the other guys here: Pass. Mostert is probably most worthy of a late-round dart, but even then, his one-year, $1.6 million deal includes just $175,000 guaranteed. This would likely be a low-upside committee if Jeanty were forced to miss any game action.

Does Jakobi Meyers have top-24 upside?

I would say so. After all, he's done exactly that during his first two seasons with the Raiders.

Jakobi Meyers PPR points per game:

  • 2023: 13.7 (WR24)
  • 2024: 14.5 (WR21)

Meyers boasted a preseason ADP as just the WR53 in both 2023 and 2024 … and now he's only up to WR40 in early drafts despite the absence of Davante Adams.

Yes, Brock Bowers could very well (again) more or less work as the offense's top pass-game option. Also yes, this is a barren WR room outside of Meyers, and Fantasy Life projects him to earn 120 targets this season—the 18th most of any player at the position.

Hitting 29 in November, Meyers is still in his prime and is someone who would probably be getting more hype if he hadn't been forced to spend the bulk of his career on usually bad Patriots and Raiders teams. Nobody had more receptions (87) without a charged drop by PFF last season. This is a damn good football player!

 

As for the rest of this WR room…

  • Jack Bech: The Raiders' second-round pick broke out during his final season at TCU after being stuck in the ever-loaded LSU WR room during the first two years of his collegiate career. Still, Bech managed to lead the 2021 LSU Tigers in receptions despite sharing the field with Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr.—he should be the frontrunner for WR2 duties here, although early practice reports have him working mostly with the second-team offense. Either way: We're looking at the best-case third pass-game option inside a likely run-first offense, and I don't love his middling ranks in the Fantasy Life Rookie WR Super Model (WR8) as well as in Thor's pre-draft WR rankings (WR14). 
  • Tre Tucker: The pint-sized speedster was the offense's third-most targeted pass catcher last season, but only managed to return a 47-539-3 receiving line. His vertical juice seems to overlap more so with Thornton; it'd be surprising to see the Raiders lean on the rising third-year talent who was drafted and utilized under a completely different coaching staff and front office.
  • Dont'e Thornton: The fourth-round pick offers an enticing blend of size (6-foot-5, 205 pounds) and speed (4.3-second 40-yard dash) inside a WR room lacking in both categories. His big-play potential is reflected by his college football-best 25.4 yards per reception in 2024, although the man did manage to catch only 65 total passes during his four seasons at Oregon and Tennessee.

Bottom line: I'm the highest of any Fantasy Life ranker on Meyers (WR34); he's a very good real-life WR with proven WR2 upside in fantasy land and is available at a WR4 price tag. That's a combo worth investing in!

Otherwise, similar to RB: I haven't gone out of my way for anyone due to the potential for limited volume in a passing game that could flow first and foremost through its top TE, WR, and hell, maybe even RB. Bech would be the dart I'd throw, although even then we're talking about someone every Fantasy Life ranker has as the WR60 or worse. Even at that price point I've found myself targeting veterans with higher target upside like Christian Kirk and Cedric Tillman.

Should you sign up to take Brock Bowers in Round 2 of fantasy drafts?

All the man did was pull off the single-best rookie season *ever* at the position. Bowers' 112 receptions shattered Sam LaPorta's previous record (86), and his 1,194 receiving yards finally took down Mike Ditka's 63-year-old record (1,076). No TE wound up with more total PPR points than Bowers; he now joins LaPorta, Travis Kelce, and Mark Andrews as the only TEs that can say that since 2015!

The fact Bowers achieved all this with near-league-worst QB play is even more impressive. The 22-year-old talent might just be scratching the surface on what he's capable of, and he's accordingly been treated as the consensus TE1 across the fantasy football industry.

Now for the key question: Is Bowers' current price tag as the ADP TE1 (pick 18.3) a bit too steep?

I have three primary concerns:

  1. Maybe Geno Smith and Chip Kelly provide upgrades here, but it's a given that this leads to necessary ridiculous volume. Bowers was being force-fed the ball down the stretch last year (the fourth quarter/garbage time numbers were ridiculous), and Kelly's lead TE averaged a meh 77 targets per season during his four years in the pros.
  2. Bowers ran pretty hot last year with Michael Mayer not playing between Weeks 4-10. The Raiders didn't let his return to action impact Bowers' every-down role last year; just realize the 23-year-old former 35th overall pick is steeper backup competition than most.
  3. The top-18 price tag here is much steeper than either Trey McBride (25.8) and George Kittle (45.9) … who both wound up out-scoring Bowers on a per-game basis last season.

Brock Bowers Fantasy Football Outlook

I won't argue with anyone who wants to crown Bowers as THE TE1 in fantasy ahead of next season, but personally I believe the position to be a big-three tier—and accordingly haven't been going out of my way to take the most-expensive option. Taking a TE THIS early hasn't usually worked out for players not named Travis Kelce; my bigger issue with Bowers' ADP is the overall pick as opposed to his positional standing.

How does Maxx Crosby stack up with the position's best pass rushers?

Crosby ranks fourth in total pressures and seventh in sacks over the past three seasons, but it's perhaps Crosby's similar ability to create havoc against the run that separates him from some of the other best EDGE defenders in the league.

 

While Crosby's per-rush pressure numbers weren't up to his usual standard in 2024, make no mistake about it: The four-time Pro Bowler is a force to be reckoned with any time he's healthy enough to be on the football field.

Prediction For The Raiders 2025 Season

The new-look Raiders enter 2025 with a manageable 6.5 win total—and I'm keen to buy the OVER on it thanks to a more competitive overall team led by longtime winner Pete Carroll. The upgrade under center can't be overstated, and there are enough high-end talents littered across the roster to make me believe this squad can at least flirt with a .500 record.

As for my bold fantasy prediction: Jakobi Meyers will parlay another triple-digit target workload from his best QB since TB12 into his third top-24 fantasy finish in as many years.