Looking Into the Future Is Different in Best Ball vs. Dynasty Fantasy Football

by Peter Overzet

2 weeks ago

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by DraftKings:

ou learn a lot about your convictions when you are on the clock.

It’s one thing to look at ranks and ADP, but it’s an entirely different proposition when you actually have to click the button.

This is especially the case for me when it comes to my dynasty rookie drafts.

Dynasty vs. Best Ball Drafts

I do hundreds of best ball drafts every summer where I quickly make decisions and move on, but I can’t afford to whiff on my rookie drafts when I only do a couple each year.

Yesterday, I found myself on the clock at 2.02 in my dynasty league that has been running for 10 years now and I felt completely paralyzed with three viable WR options:

Matthew Golden—the ADP faller with Round 1 draft capital who I didn’t want to take
Luther Burden—the guy who my head thought was the best pick
Jayden Higgins—the guy who my heart wanted to reach for

Making matters even more difficult was the fact that I have Jordan Love and Caleb Williams on this squad, meaning both Golden and Burden would give me intriguing stack potential and a correlated bet.

All three of them are neck-and-neck in the Super Model, too.

Ultimately, I decided that Golden’s profile spooks me too much with the lowest production rating of the three (sorry, Jake). If he does hit—which is still certainly possible—it is likely to be in a boom/bust fashion. That’s fine in best ball, but trickier in managed leagues where you have to make weekly start/sit decisions.

Burden got less draft capital and possesses similar bust potential, but I feel more confident about his game translating to a high fantasy ceiling if he does hit. The fact that Ben Johnson hand-selected him despite the presence of DJ Moore and Rome Odunze further solidified it as the right choice for me.

After selecting Burden, I tried to trade back in to the middle of the second to grab Higgins, but missed out.

And now I guess I’m a Bears fan because my dynasty future is firmly in the hands of Williams … I hope he’s prepared to carry both burdens.

WHERE DOES DWAIN RANK CALEB WILLIAMS?

Rocky! Rocky! Rocky!

That Philadelphia boxing movie may be nearly 50 years old, but the ethos still resonates. People root for the little guy. The one who’s willing to take that one-in-a-million shot at greatness. For a handful of players who didn’t get calls during the NFL Draft, they got a different kind of call.

UDFA RANKS, NFC EDITION

Who’s the next Tony Romo? The next Austin Ekeler? Thor didn’t stop at the Thor 500. He’s ranked all the NFC UDFA ranks, because everyone loves an underdog story.

IF YOU PLAY DYNASTY, WE’VE GOT NFL DRAFT GRADES FOR YOU

Mark Your Calendar For Wednesday, 5/7 at 5 p.m. ET

Join us on the DraftKings Discord Server for an exclusive Best Ball Q&A with Fantasy Football Hall of Famer Matthew Berry and Fantasy Life’s Ian Hartitz. Get expert insights and draft-day tips just in time for Best Ball season. Register now on the DraftKings Discord Server and don’t miss it.

SEE YOU THERE

🔮 Arch de QB Triumph?

His grandfather is Saints royalty more than 40 years after taking his last snap for New Orleans (just ask cooterdoodle). His uncles Peyton and Eli had pretty good college careers before making history in the draft. TheY did OK in the NFL. Now is there a third generation of Mannings ready to take college football by storm and then follow his uncles by going at the top of the draft?

Matthew Freedman took on the gargantuan task of pulling together his way-too-early 2026 NFL Mock Draft. Confetti may still be wafting through the air in Green Bay after Cam Ward went first overall over a week ago, and now it’s time to look ahead to the Steel City next year where Texas’ Arch Manning could be making that long walk to hug NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell. Or will it be another QB going at the top? We know teams are always in the market for signal-callers. Freedman tests whether you can be too early.👇🏼

CHICAGO WILL LOVE THIS PICK

Go Deep: How aDOT Helps Measure Fantasy Success

Chris Allen’s series on different analytics that are impactful on fantasy football have been as informative and together they paint a picture for fantasy football success. We’ve gotten the lowdown on routes, the vital stat targets per route run, and it’s more-popular partner stat yards per route run. They all help tell the story for pass-catcher success.

Now how does aDOT join the fray? Well, is it as simple as the deeper the passes the WR sees, the more success? Not always.