Ian Hartitz previews and makes predictions for the Miami Dolphins' 2025 NFL season.

Last season was supposed to be the year that Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins finally made it over the hump and captured their first playoff victory since 2000 (yikes). After all, the wunderkind's first two seasons with Tua Tagovailoa and Co. produced 9-8 and 11-6 campaigns fueled by the league's sixth-ranked scoring offense.

Unfortunately, (another) early-season concussion for Tua largely doomed the offense from the start, as winning six of their final nine games still wasn't enough to snap the Bills' five-year streak of AFC East championships.

Dolphins 2025 Team Preview

Last season was anything but typical compared to what Miami has experienced under McDaniel:

  • Points per game: 20.3 (22nd)
  • EPA per dropback: +0.09 (15th)
  • EPA per rush: -0.25 (31st)
  • Points per game against: 21.4 (10th)

While there are some new faces here and there, most of the key parties involved are returning to South Beach for another crack at things. Today's goal: Answer some (mostly fantasy-related) key questions surrounding this squad ahead of 2025.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Is Tua a viable starting fantasy QB in 2025?

We've seen Tua be both really good and really bad during his five-year career, but 2024 was actually on the better side of things in terms of EPA per dropback.

 

While Tua's raw yards per attempt (7.2) reached a three-year low, he completed an NFL-high 72.9% of his passes and posted the lowest INT rate (1.8%) during his time with McDaniel. Throw in a career-best 51.9% success rate fueled by plenty of lower-aDOT targets to De'Von Achane and Jonnu Smith, and Tagovailoa still largely had this offense humming—just look at their ranks in Weeks 8-16 upon his return to the lineup!

Dolphins in Weeks 8-16:

  • Points per game: 26.1 (10th)
  • Success rate: 49.8% (3rd)
  • EPA per dropback: +0.256 (5th)
  • EPA per rush: -0.178 (29th)

 

The involved fantasy points per game (16.5, QB14) weren't quite what we saw in 2022 (17.8, QB10), but they were actually an improvement on 2023 (15.9, QB19). We might never see Tagavailoa join the true elites at the position in fantasy land due to his complete lack of a rushing floor; just realize last year was pretty much in line with his previous two years of solid play.

Tua Tagovailoa 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook

While McDaniel will need to develop a counterpunch to get this offense fully humming again, I'd argue last year's relative dropoff in production was more due to the supporting cast than Mr. Tua. Reminder: We are just one year removed from Tagovailoa leading the NFL in passing yards; anything close to a return to form from his pair of speedy WRs could help bring back that sort of high-end weekly upside.

I don't find myself necessarily sprinting to the podium to draft Tua specifically despite his affordable QB22 ADP, but the presence of him, Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud, and Trevor Lawrence in that range makes me very comfortable deploying a "first or last" strategy at the position in drafts of most shapes and sizes.

Does Miami have *two* RBs fantasy managers should be very interested in?

All Achane has done in his first two seasons is rack up 2,496 total yards and 23 trips to the end zone. While his rookie campaign was more explosive and featured an NFL-record 7.8 yards per carry (!), last season instead saw a bit more reliance on volume—particularly with an early-season high-ankle sprain badly hobbling the pint-sized speedster.

On that latter note: Just look at Achane's rushing performance in Weeks 1-5 compared to after the team's Week 6 bye. Among 50 qualified RBs …

 

 

Getting Tua back under center also helped matters, particularly in the passing game where Achane made a huge leap forward. Overall, a whopping 58% of Achane's fantasy production came through the passing game, which was easily the highest mark of any top-20 RB last season. Note that this production was unique relative to other players at the position, as the rising third-year talent racked up 34 receptions when lined up from the slot or out wide–15 more than second-place Alvin Kamara (19)!

Ultimately, only Jahmyr Gibbs (65%) finished as a top-12 PPR performer in a higher percentage of his games than Achane (59%) among all RBs last season. There's less depth-chart competition to worry about than ever; don't be surprised if the RB6 in PPR points per game during the past two seasons again puts forward what the kids might call an elite fantasy campaign.

And then there's Jaylen Wright, who landed on my list of underrated veteran winners after the draft. While Wright didn't exactly boom in his rookie year, he deserves credit for finishing first among Dolphins RBs in yards after contact per carry (3.3), tackles avoided per carry (23.5%), and explosive-run rate (10.3%) alike. Yes, this still didn't result in much work or fantasy fireworks in 2024. Also yes, the Dolphins largely refrained from adding any sort of meaningful competition this entire offseason.

Consider:

  • Miami released Raheem Mostert back in February and did not re-sign current free agent Jeff Wilson.
  • The only free agent addition was career backup Alexander Mattison on a tiny one-year, $2 million deal.
  • General Manager Chris Grier waited until pick 179 to select Oklahoma State RB Ollie Gordon in Round 6.

Now, Gordon is more interesting than your usual Day 3 pick due to his plus size (6-foot-1, 226 pounds) and huge 2023 campaign (2,062 total yards and 22 TD!), but c'mon: The only competition the Dolphins have added against Wright this entire offseason is Alexander f*cking Mattison and a sixth-round rookie—that's a win!

De'Von Achane Fantasy Football Outlook for 2025

Achane is my overall RB5 and that doesn't feel high enough. Run, don't walk, to pick him in Round 2 in fantasy drafts of most shapes and sizes this offseason. Meanwhile, Wright is currently going in Round 16 of early Best Ball drafts–I LOVE this price tag for someone with an outside chance for standalone FLEX value and sky-high handcuff upside should Achane ever miss any action.

Can Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle regain high-end fantasy value?

It was almost shocking how much the Dolphins passing game strayed away from its WRs last season, but can you really blame them?

Passer rating when targeted in 2024:

Tyreek and Waddle were mediocre in yards per route run (38th and 53rd, respectively) and targets per route run (33rd and 66th, respectively) alike among 89 qualified WRs. The former receiver did battle a wrist injury throughout the season, but it's tough to fully blame that on his performance considering Hill was only charged with three total drops all year. The latter talent was seemingly healthy for most of the year before missing Week 16 and 17 with a knee injury.

Unlike with Achane, we also didn't exactly see either WR get back to balling once Tua was under center: Tyreek was the WR24 with 14.6 PPR points per game in Weeks 8-16, while Waddle was the WR39 with just 12.4 PPR points per game in Weeks 8-14 before suffering the aforementioned knee injury.

While this offseason has been a bit of a tumultuous one for Hill given his off-the-field issues and interesting social media posts, the team's relative lack of investment in new WRs (with the exception of TD-scoring extraordinaire Nick Westbrook-Ikhine) almost certainly locks the Dolphins' duo into more big-time workloads. This is reflected in the Fantasy Life projections, which have Hill (137.2 targets, 11th among WRs) and Waddle (111.5, 24th) both clearing their 2024 totals.

Hill carries the fourth-highest PPR projection among all WRs! Waddle is 21st! It's tough to explain why 2024 was so rough for both, but then again, maybe we're over-reacting to a one-year sample when the previous two seasons were pretty, pretty, pretty good for both. Affordable early ADP for Hill (WR15) and Waddle (WR32) sure makes it seem like this is a good chance to buy both players closer to their floor than ceiling.

2025 Fantasy Football Outlook for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle

It's fair to be wary of Hill considering the volatile offseason and the reality that 31-year-old veterans typically don't thrive at the position, but then again we are literally just one season removed from him leading the league in receiving yards (1,799) and TDs (13). A similar sentiment is true for Waddle, who remains in VERY good company among WRs to record 1,000 yard seasons in each of the first three years of their career.

Ultimately, I'm drinking the bounceback Kool-Aid and moved both up in my rankings upon writing this preview. I get not pulling the trigger on them EVERY draft, but we're still looking at two target hog WRs with a tantalizing history of putting up big-time fantasy numbers, even if last season didn't exactly feature either player putting their best foot forward.

Was Jonnu Smith's 2024 boom a fugazi?

Smith's YAC-friendly speed and physicality were expected to fit well inside McDaniel's ever well-schemed passing attack, but even his biggest truthers couldn't have seen the 29-year-old veteran putting up these sorts of numbers.

Smith among 31 TEs with 50-plus targets:

  • Receptions: 88 (No. 4)
  • Receiving yards: 884 (No. 4)
  • Receiving TD: 8 (tied for No. 2)
  • Yards per route run: 1.96 (No. 5)
  • Targets per route run: 24.6% (No. 6)
  • Passer rating when targeted: 123.9 (No. 6)

It would have made sense if Smith managed to turn his limited opportunities into some big plays here and there, but leading the offense in receptions (88) was absolute madness—credit to Smith for the eighth-year breakout, and apologies to Mr. Arthur Smith for ever doubting his 2023 usage.

Of course, this all begs the question: Do the Dolphins really want to run this strategy back? Despite all those great numbers, Miami still kept multiple TEs involved and played Smith on barely more than half of the offense's snaps in just nine games last season. His season-long 68% route rate was fine (ideally we want at least 70% in fantasy land), and the Dolphins didn't add any meaningful competition to the position. Just realize this year we're being forced to draft the reigning TE5 in PPR points per game far closer to this ceiling (current ADP: TE6) than his floor.

Jonnu Smith 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook 

It's tough to overly argue about Smith's standing as a top-10 TE, although I believe he's in a tier with guys like Mark Andrews, David Njoku, Travis Kelce, and Evan Engram—all of whom are priced quite a bit cheaper in fantasy land at the moment. For this reason, I've generally not gone out of my way to draft the soon-to-be 30-year-old veteran, but hey, to each their own.

How unique is this Dolphins offense when it comes to pre-snap motion and play-action?

McDaniel has largely made a habit of pushing all the "easy" schematic buttons during his three-year run as Dolphins head coach, as Miami has ranked inside the league's top five offenses in both pre-snap motion and play-action rate each and every season since 2022—that's them in the FAR top right corner of the below graph.

Of course, things didn't exactly go smoothly (read: they went horribly) without Tua under center last season, but hey, maybe … Zach Wilson can provide a higher floor than former Pro Bowl QB Tyler Huntley if disaster strikes again (that felt horrible to type out).

Miami Dolphins Prediction for 2025

The Dolphins +125 odds on their over 8.5 win total reflects the reality that Vegas isn't exactly sold on a bounceback campaign. The team did make a few big dollar additions to the offensive line (James Daniels) and secondary (Jevon Holland), but I'm hesitant to call either move a true difference-making transaction at this point.

Ultimately, I'm going to take UNDER 8 wins for a team at a bit of a crossroads ahead of 2024. Everyone is a year older, and the internal chemistry really doesn't seem to pass the sniff test from the outside. That said, my bold fantasy prediction is Achane finishing as THE RB1 thanks to the potential for his typically awesome rushing efficiency and borderline erotic receiving ability to combine into a Marshall Faulk-esque monster campaign.