Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs Falcons Matchup Breakdown For Week 3 Fantasy Football

• Spread: Chiefs -8.5
• O/U: 44.5
• Score Prediction (from the Fantasy Life NFL Betting Model):  KC 28, MIA 18

Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Preview

As I alluded to up top, part of what makes this Kansas City dynastic run so legendary is the different iterations achieved by Andy Reid to succeed. What was once a high-flying, circus offense may still be racking up a familiar 457.5 yards/game, just that now it’s occurring on the second-most rushes in the NFL.

The offseason acquisition of Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker set the course for some unbelievable backfield utilization (UR 97; 80% backfield opportunities, 28.2 touches/game) with mind-blowing efficiency to boot (6.6 yards/touch, +0.22 EPA/attempt, 12.8% explosive rush rate). Oh, he’s also averaging over four grabs a game. Sky’s the limit.

If there’s any worry surrounding Walker, it’s sustainability. And while the horse already left the barn on Emmett Johnson as a top sleeper handcuff, he’s even worth kicking the tires for a trade. The fifth-round rookie out of Nebraska is responsible for a ridiculous 7.4 yards/touch and looks not only capable, but explosive in all facets of the game. Consider him right alongside Blake Corum as the most valuable contingency back in all of fantasy football.

I know Patrick Mahomes just lit up the Colts for (382-3–0), so why aren’t I overly enthused? Man, that Indianapolis defense stinks! They’re responsible for so many bottom-3 defensive stats, it’s going to be hard to take anything against them too seriously. Yes, it counts — but that doesn’t make it predictive.

As an admitted Chiefs hater, shaking my fist and screaming at red-and-yellow clouds, we did get confirmation that Mahomes can and will sling it when necessary. The thing is, there’s no guarantee he’ll need to throw at all against Miami with major blowout risk on the table. Notice how I mentioned the Colts ranking bottom-3 in most critical defensive stats … well, the Dolphins are snuggled up right alongside them across the board.

Easily one of the leakiest defensive units in the NFL, Miami’s dead last in EPA/dropback (-0.45), completion rate allowed (78.8%), pressures created (14), and is the only team in the league without a single sack to its name. Can we get a mercy flush, please?

Going forward, KC’s defense will keep them in most, if not all, games, but let’s just say I have my doubts there’s a legitimate catch-up mode here when necessary. Having completed just two passes of +20-air yards this season, the Chiefs’ aerials rely on yards after the catch. Their two playmaking WRs, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy, who’ve earned +72% of the team’s WR targets, also have a combined YAC% hovering right around 70% as well. Good luck maintaining that.

So, not to dogpile what’s a measurably good offense, KC’s going to boat race the hapless Dolphins — it’s just the way they get home raises future concerns regarding sustainability in varying game scripts.

• Start: Patrick Mahomes (QB5), Kenneth Walker (RB2), Travis Kelce (TE5), Rashee Rice (WR23), Xavier Worthy (WR38)
• Sit: Tyquan Thornton (WR73)

Miami Dolphins Fantasy Preview

No. Don’t. Stop. As one of the early Dolphin believers this season (I can explain!), we’re just two weeks in, and I’m already one of the last left standing. I get it, there’s very little positivity to sink our teeth into. There’s plenty to dislike both on the spreadsheet and the film — Malik Willis owns one of the lowest completion rates in the NFL (58.8%), and the worst off-target rate (22.0%). No excuses, play like a champion.

When I said I could explain thinking this could work, obviously I had hoped for a better start, but all hope’s not lost. NFL is an extremely difficult game, yet contrary to some popular analysts’ beliefs, the player you are in your first handful of games doesn’t define your career. Growth is allowed, and yes, it happens. Now, will it and when are two different questions altogether.

Part of the worry for Willis’ potential ascension was the surrounding pass-catching talent, which now may even be understated with the loss of rookie Caleb Douglas to an ankle injury. That leaves Malik Washington as the presumed WR1, who’ll hold some fantasy value for volume alone — but it’s hard to get too excited despite some decent advanced metrics (21.7% target/route, 1.60 yards/route). 

Keep an eye on third-round rookie WR Chris Bell as a viable stash, who could wind up emerging in Washington’s stead. Ditto for TE Greg Dulcich, who’s now the Dolphins’ de facto second option via opportunity share alone. Bad to worse, frying pan to the fire … choose whatever doomer saying you’d like and it still might not capture the floor of this offense. (whispers) It’s zero.

The lone bright spot regarding talent and the last hope for any reclamation of Miami is De’Von Achane. Clearly disappointing at cost thus far, I still wouldn’t sell low. Fantasy’s based around opportunities, and there’s no shortage there. Achane’s commanded the fourth-highest backfield opportunity share in the league (84.4%), though sadly it’s only enough raw volume to rank 11th in total touches. 

To that point (and my original assertion on trajectory), Achane’s carries jumped to 20 last week, along with 6 targets. Those half-dozen looks in the pass game equated to a 31.7% target/route rate, good for 26.1% of team target share — and that’s what I was hoping for when pulling the trigger in the second round on draft day.

Not sure you’ll hear this anywhere else — I’d try to buy low on Achane if possible, in case we’re trending towards Christian McCaffrey-esque usage with that terrible Panthers’ squad. We’ve also seen Willis ball out, and while that contextual environment in GB was objectively stronger, it isn’t out of the question. Well, maybe this week against Chris Jones it is.

• Start: Malik Willis (QB19), De’Von Achane (RB11)
• Sit: Malik Washington (WR41), Chris Bell (WR65)
• Sleeper: Greg Dulcich (TE29)

Next Week’s Bold Headline, Today

• One of these teams is not like the other. One of these teams just doesn’t belong. Can you guess which team that is by the time I finish my song?