Ian Hartitz analyzes the New England Patriots in this team preview and presents the fantasy football outlook for the 2025 NFL season.

The 2024 Patriots were fully expected to be a sad excuse for a professional football team … and that's pretty much exactly what happened! Only Week 18 Joe Milton heroics against the Bills' backups prevented this 4-13 squad from securing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

The defense flashed a little bit, but this was still by and large a bad football team:

New England Patriots in 2024:

  • Points per game: 17 (30th)
  • EPA per dropback: -0.02 (23rd)
  • EPA per rush: -0.19 (30th)
  • Points per game against: 24.5 (22nd)

And yet, suddenly there are glimmers of hope ahead of next season thanks to new head coach Mike Vrabel and rising second-year QB Drake Maye. Throw in an offensive line overhaul and the additions of playmakers like Stefon Diggs and TreVeyon Henderson, and if you squint hard enough you can see the Patriots messing around and contending for a Wild Card spot.

2025 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS TEAM PREVIEW

Accordingly, today's goal is to answer some (mostly fantasy-related) key questions on the Patriots ahead of 2025.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Is Drake Maye a late-round QB target?

There was a weird sentiment with Maye last season revolving around the idea that the Patriots should refrain from playing him at all costs due to this being such a bad offensive environment. On the one hand, yeah, nobody had a worse Supporting Cast Rating in 2025, and clearly New England still didn't resemble a contender upon inserting the 2024 NFL Draft's No. 3 overall pick into the starting lineup.

On the other hand, Maye sure looked a lot like the team's long-term answer under center despite the lack of winning football. Three appearances with under 31% of the offense's snaps skew the per-game numbers a bit, but accounting for this gave the rookie stellar averages of 223 passing yards and 36 rushing yards per game.

Giving Maye the benefit of the doubt, here are the only other QBs to clear 220 pass and 35 rush yards per game in a single season in the Super Bowl era (min. 8 starts):

Note that Jayden Daniels also would have qualified if you remove his two sub-50% snap games from last season. Either way: That's pretty damn great company!

Of course, the real difference-maker in fantasy land among this group is the rushing prowess at hand, something that Maye proved to be awfully good at as a rookie and during his time at North Carolina. Overall, nobody averaged more yards per carry than Maye (7.8, min. 50 carries) last season, as the rookie racked up more rushing yards on scrambles than anyone other than Daniels. That's right: Maye was technically more lethal than Lamar f*cking Jackson when scrambling!

High-volume rushing QBs seldom bust in fantasy land, and this alone is enough for Maye to be a target in the later rounds of drafts … although it would be nice to see an improvement in the passing department.

 

Of course, DeMario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte were probably (read: definitely) the league's worst one-two punch at WR last season, and PFF's reigning 32nd-ranked offensive line also obviously didn't help matters. Here's to hoping Josh McDaniels can also pull a few rabbits out of his head (s/o Jason Witten) and make life easier for Maye—I'm particularly excited to see some of the designed QB run concepts that were really fun during the 2020 Cam Newton season.

Drake Maye 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook

Maye is the cheapest QB in fantasy football who we can reasonably expect to run a lot and start 17 games with good health (sorry, Anthony Richardson). While I don't blame folks for leaving Maye behind fellow nimble signal-callers in better offenses like Jordan Love, Justin Herbert, and Trevor Lawrence, I have him at the top of that tier, and either way he's a great example of the sort of late-round QB to target and a good reason why it might not be worth reaching on the second-tier of passers this season due to the relatively stable tier of passers. How much superior upside does Kyler Murray (ADP: QB8, pick 95.1) really have over Maye (QB16, 123)? Note that they are separated by less than one fantasy point per game in the Fantasy Life Projections.

Will TreVeyon Henderson lose carries to Rhamondre Stevenson?

The explosive Ohio State RB was selected with the 38th overall pick last April to presumably lead this Patriots backfield, although the Patriots gave Stevenson a four-year, $36 million extension last June for a reason. Now, Vrabel and McDaniels weren't in charge when that was agreed to, but then again, the latter OC was running the show in 2021 when Stevenson averaged 12.6 carries and targets per game while working alongside Damien Harris and Brandon Bolden.

It really is McDaniels' past RB usage that makes me hesitant to assume Henderson will completely take over this backfield. We certainly have seen the longtime Patriots OC/ex-Raiders head coach lean on one single back—Josh Jacobs led the NFL with 393 touches in 2022—but I'm also old enough to remember the annual horror of attempting to figure out which Patriots RB would emerge as the best fantasy option throughout the 2010s.

Below is McDaniels' RB production history during his time as Patriots OC (2012-2021) and as Raiders head coach (note 2023 only consisted of eight games before McDaniels was fired) …

Now, Stevenson is a capable receiving back, but this is really Henderson's calling card. Just look at The Athletic's Dane Brugler's summary of Henderson from "The Beast":

“Although his inside vision can get a little messy at times, and he isn’t the most graceful working through tight spaces, Henderson can bounce laterally and smash the accelerator to sprint through voids or convert his speed to power as a finisher. As a blocker, he delivers thunderbolts into his target. As a pass catcher, he secures grabs away from his frame and has dynamic ability on option routes. Overall, Henderson isn’t a proven bell cow between the tackles, but his bursts of speed make him a home-run threat and coaches can trust him to execute without the football. His versatile skillset will be an immediate upgrade to an NFL backfield.”

Final note: Antonio Gibson probably won't be a part of this committee and might not even be a lock to make the roster; just realize his advanced metrics were borderline erotic last season and there were more than a few baller plays on film. There are dozens of us who still believe in him. Dozens! (Trade? Cowboys? PLEASE?!)

How Will Touches Be Broken Up In The Patriots' Backfield?

Henderson profiles as the backfield's explosive, pass-game option and accordingly should be the higher-ranked back in PPR formats. That said, this still doesn't exactly profile as an offense expected to function as a top-10 scoring unit, so I have a tough time getting the rookie inside the position's top-24 players.

Meanwhile, Stevenson is in a similar boat as Najee Harris: Unlikely to see the sort of three-down role that would lead to RB2 production, but double-digit weekly touches are likely still on the table. There's also some nice contingent upside here if Henderson happens to miss any game action—Stevenson is an underrated solid zero-RB target, albeit you won't feel good about relying on him for much come Week 1.

Is Stefon Diggs healthy enough to be the Patriots' WR1?

Diggs has been posting some promising training footage coming off his unfortunate late-October ACL tear. Dr. Jeff Mueller believes there's a "decent chance he'll be fine throughout the season given his current level of training" and joked that of all the players who are ahead of schedule, Diggs actually might finally be the one to be ahead of schedule. There seems to be a reasonable chance that Diggs is game ready by the summer, let alone Week 1.

Additionally, the Patriots must feel at least pretty good about Diggs' chances of contributing early in 2025 considering they signed up to pay him $63.5 million over the course of the next three years. Now, they can get out of the deal without too much pain as early as 2026; just realize that $21.2 million per year is on par with what guys like Davante Adams and Chris Godwin got this past offseason.

And why not? Diggs ripped off four consecutive top-10 PPR seasons during his time in Buffalo before working as the WR17 in PPR points per game during the first eight weeks of last season with the Texans. ESPN's receiver ratings gave Diggs the position's seventh-best "Open Score" meant to help quantify separation.

Does this look like a washed WR to you?

There isn't really anyone else to get overly excited about in this WR room, especially considering the uncertainty surrounding if anyone else will even manage to hold down a true full-time role. Either way: Here are exactly 143 words on the contenders:

 

  • Kyle Williams: Speedy field-stretching third-round pick earned meh reviews from Fantasy Life's Thor Nystrom (pre-draft WR19) and Dwain McFarland (WR9 in the Rookie WR Super Model), but hey, the opportunity sure is there.
  • Mack Hollins: Noted hater of soup and shoes profiles as the exact sort of big-bodied blocker that Mike Vrabel probably loves.
  • DeMario Douglas: Pint-sized slot maven with some enticing short-area movement skillz, but unlikely to be in two-WR sets.
  • Kayshon Boutte: Made a handful of big plays downfield inside this barren WR room last year and is from LSU. 
  • Kendrick Bourne: Darkhorse contender after signing a three-year, $19.5 million deal last March.
  • Ja'Lynn Polk: His average of 2.6 yards per target is the third-worst mark in NFL history among all WRs to earn at least 25 targets in a single season.
  • Javon Baker: Caught *1* pass last season.

Can You Trust Any Patriots WR In Fantasy?

We really have no evidence of Diggs working as anything other than a high-end fantasy WR, and yet early ADP has him going outside of the top-40 options at the position. Personally, it feels like the age (32 in November) and injury concern is more than baked into that price. The man hasn't finished worse than WR25 in PPR points per game in 10 years! Maybe I'll regret this, but Diggs is one of my most-drafted WRs of the offseason; 49ers and Packers WRs in the similar ADP range simply don't have the same likelihood of working as their passing game's clear-cut No. 1 option.

Meanwhile, Williams is someone I've been happy to dabble with in the later portions of Round 2 rookie drafts, but expecting more than boom-or-bust WR4 production at best in 2025 feels like wishful thinking.

Does The Fantasy Football World Not Give Hunter Henry Enough Respect?

Scholars debate to this day exactly how good Hunter Henry is. Early-career injuries and the presence of old man Antonio Gates certainly didn't help matters, but we are talking about someone who has never gained even 700 receiving yards in nine seasons.

Don't get it twisted: The man isn't terrible, but are we really still chasing those Chargers "highs" in the year 2025?

Henry PPR points per game by year:

  • 2024: 9.1 (TE16)
  • 2023: 8.6 (TE16)
  • 2022: 6.1 (TE27)
  • 2021: 9.7 (TE15)
  • 2020: 10.4 (TE10)
  • 2019: 12.5 (TE8)
  • 2018: Missed season with torn ACL
  • 2017: 9.1 (TE10)
  • 2016: 8.7 (TE21)

The man just led the Patriots in targets (97) last season and all it produced was a TE16 finish. There were six top-10 finishes mixed in there last year, but Jiminy Christmas, man. He would have finished WR54. Is anyone else offended by this?

Is Hunter Henry Worth A Late-Round Pick? 

Austin Hooper quietly snaked away 59 targets last year and earned 60 while working as Mike Vrabel's lead TE back in 2022. Henry's starting job is not going anywhere; just realize something even close to a committee would be worrisome inside even an improved passing game. I'm proud to be the lowest of the Fantasy Life rankers on him (my TE23) and vastly prefer guys like Mike Gesicki, Cade Otton, and yes, even Kyle Pitts ahead of him in the LATE rounds of drafts.

Do The Patriots Have A Budding Star On Defense?

The rising third-year corner certainly had himself one helluva 2024, surrendering only 499 total yards (fewer than 35 in all but four games) and two trips to the end zone. Among 81 corners who were targeted at least 50 times, Gonzalez posted top-10 marks in passer rating allowed (70.5) and catch rate on targets into his coverage (54.8%) while regularly traveling with the opponent's No. 1 WR and was charged with only three penalties all season—something many of the league's big-name cornerbacks can't exactly say! Not bad for someone who doesn't even turn 23 years old until June 28.

Answer: Yes, and he already sure seems pretty great to me.

PATRIOTS 2025 PREDICTION AND HOT TAKE

Vegas is buying into the idea that the Patriots will be a better football team in 2025, as their 7.5 win total has a solid -155 lean to the over and matches the Seahawks, Falcons, Cowboys, Jaguars, and Colts. I get it, not the world's greatest company, but at least there are seven teams with worse outlooks.

And you know what? I'm in, thanks to belief in Maye, Vrabel, and a retooled defense that is suddenly the league's eighth-most expensive unit ahead of 2025. Give me over 7.5 wins, and my bold fantasy prediction is that a healthy Stefon Diggs clears 1,000 yards and finishes as a top-24 WR in PPR points per game.