Ian Hartitz presents the New Orleans Saints 2025 team preview and fantasy football outlook.

The Saints looked like an absolute buzzsaw during the first two weeks of 2024 on their way to destroying the Panthers (47-10) and Cowboys (44-19). Derek Carr was unironically receiving darkhorse MVP hype, Alvin Kamara was balling out like it was 2020 again, Klint Kubiak was being propped up as the next wunderkind OC: Life was good for cooterdoodle and all Saints fans in early September.

And then suddenly it wasn't. Injuries all over the offense led to seven consecutive losses and the firing of head coach Dennis Allen, while a brief midseason surge wasn't enough to prevent the Saints from finishing with their fewest wins (5) since the 2005 season.

New Orleans Saints in 2024:

  • Points per game: 19.9 (24th)
  • EPA per dropback: -0.07 (30th)
  • EPA per rush: -0.04 (10th)
  • Points per game against: 23.4 (19th)

Fast forward to 2025, and new head coach Kellen Moore is leading a roster that sure seems to be feeling the pain from YEARS of kicking the salary cap can down the road. Some longtime stalwarts like Kamara and Cameron Jordan remain; just realize most logical people fully expect the Saints to resemble one of the NFL's worst teams this year.

This brings us to today's goal: Answering key (mostly fantasy-related) questions about the Saints ahead of their 2025 season.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Note: All referenced ADP (in parentheses) is Underdog, via our Fantasy Life ADP Tool. For our full fantasy football rankings as well as early Week 1 rankings, head to our rankings hub.

New Orleans Saints 2025 Fantasy Football and Team Preview

What does an upside scenario for Tyler Shough look like?

The Saints selected the elderly (26) rookie QB with the 40th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. While many have balked at the idea that Shough has a legit NFL starter ceiling after he basically only turned in one good year during seven (!) seasons at Oregon, Texas Tech, and Louisville, the 6-foot-5, 225-pound signal-caller does seem to have the sort of tools to potentially work out in the right situation.

Just look at what The Athletic's Dane Brugler had to say about Shough in “The Beast:”

“With his drive velocity and body fluidity, Shough can make impressive rip-and-zip throws from a variety of arm slots and is a better athlete than expected, which helps him keep plays alive. His ability to expedite his process when the pocket deteriorates is promising, but he needs to improve his eye discipline to stay in sync with receivers when reading full progressions. Overall, Shough is overaged and needs to cut back on some of the high-risk passing decisions, but he is a gifted thrower with the functional mobility to work off schedule. He has the tools to work his way up a depth chart and make plays once on the field.”

Of course, the "right situation" certainly isn't guaranteed to be in New Orleans. Head coach Kellen Moore has led top-seven scoring offenses in four of his six seasons as an OC, although his work with the 2023 Chargers (21st) was underwhelming to say the least, and last year's Eagles offense wasn't exactly overhauled relative to the successful work they had already been doing.

Consider: Last year's Eagles team ranked sixth in Supporting Cast Rating … and the Saints were 24th. Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are a solid one-two punch when healthy, but PFF's reigning 22nd-ranked offensive line better hope ninth overall pick Kelvin Banks is ready to contribute immediately, or else some of Shough's bad habits under pressure might be more pronounced than anyone would prefer.

This is all working under the assumption that Shough does indeed win the job. Derek Carr's retirement leaves Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener also technically in the competition, although there wasn't much from Rattler's rookie season to suggest that we're looking at a legit game-changing talent here.

 

Bottom line: Shough's best-case scenario involves:

  1. The injury gods leaving this offense alone
  2. Moore re-establishing himself as one of the league's premier playcallers
  3. His sneaky athleticism (get it? because he's white!) leading to far more rushing production than what we saw in college

Ultimately, I'm doubtful there's a ceiling worth chasing here. Shough does profile as a potential value in fantasy land … because he doesn't have much room to go other than up at his current QB30 ADP. Best ball or superflex drafters in need of a third QB LATE in the draft should feel free to throw a dart, but expecting fireworks from a non-blue chip rookie at a position that hasn't historically produced many great Year 1 fantasy performers feels like wishful thinking.

Why is Alvin Kamara so cheap in fantasy land?

We really have never seen Kamara do anything other than work as an elite fantasy RB. After all, he posted top-eight finishes in PPR points per game during each of the first four seasons of his career alongside future Hall of Famer Drew Brees and has gone for RB5, RB13, RB3, and most recently RB5 finishes ever since.

Last season's performance was particularly awesome due to the generally porous environment in which Kamara was forced to operate in. Of course, the heavy workload afforded certainly helped matters: Nobody had a better Utilization Score (9.3) than Kamara in 2024. This produced one of the position's most fantasy-friendly floors, as only Jahmyr Gibbs finished as a top-24 RB in a higher percentage of games than Kamara (100% vs. 93%).

Look, obviously the Saints aren't the sort of offense we should be dying to get exposure to. Vegas implied lines have them outscoring only the Browns this season. There's also at least some age cliff concern for the soon-to-be 30-year-old back, who also didn't exactly put his best foot forward in terms of rushing efficiency independent of his offensive line last season.

Here's the thing: Kamara's receiving prowess is largely unmatched at the position, and he accordingly joined De'Von Achane, Breece Hall and Rachaad White as the only four backs to earn over half of their PPR production through the air last season. All in all, there were just five RBs to average at least 7.5 PPR points per game as a receiver in 2024:

RB most PPR points per game from receiving last season:

  1. De'Von Achane (10.2)
  2. Alvin Kamara (9.6)
  3. Rachaad White (7.9)
  4. Breece Hall (7.7)
  5. Jahmyr Gibbs (7.5)

 

Note that while Saquon Barkley had only 43 targets under Moore's direction last season, Austin Ekeler had 74 in 14 games in 2023 (tied for fifth), and Cowboys RBs as a whole ranked 20th in targets from 2019 to 2022. Fantasy Life Projections currently have Kamara earning a position-high 80 targets next season.

Behind the Saints' longtime featured back…

  • Kendre Miller flashed some tackle-breaking goodness in his limited touches last season, but has yet to prove he can stay healthy for a full season. Still, the No. 2 RB job seems to be his for the taking with longtime hater Dennis Allen and Jamaal Williams out of the picture.
  • Rookie Devin Neal displayed some nice receiving upside during his four seasons at Kansas (77-7111-4), although the history of sixth-round picks making too much noise as rookies (or really ever) isn't great.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire is still hanging around.
  • Velus Jones is listed as an RB on the depth chart, which is objectively hilarious.

Alvin Kamara 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook

The offensive environment and age factors make Kamara a no go as a third-round pick. But as a sixth rounder? I'm buying. We're talking about someone with likely overall RB1-level utilization and really no history of failing to return top-12 results. Kamara is currently being priced around borderline WR3 types like Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings, and goes after the top-tier QBs and TEs are already off the board. This is a GREAT zero-RB pick for those into that kind of thing.

I haven't found myself throwing many darts at these backup RBs; it's unclear if any would even get the chance to handle a featured workload should Kamara miss any time. Reminder: Kamara has played at least 13 games during every season of his career.

Could both Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed be values at ADP?

Olave turned in back-to-back 1,000+ seasons to start his career, but was limited to just eight games in 2024 due to two concussions. That's now five documented concussions for the former 11th overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft.

And yet, Olave still showed off the sort of pristine route-running ability that has been a staple of his game dating back to his time at THE Ohio State University. The man knows how to get open.

Olave's ESPN "Open Rating" since entering the NFL:

  • 2024: 80 (12th)
  • 2023: 75 (14th)
  • 2022: 82 (7th)

The only WRs with better three-year marks in this separation-based metric: Malik Nabers, Diontae Johnson, A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, and Zay Flowers. That's awfully good company, and the per-route numbers back up the idea that Olave deserves to be considered one of the position's top young talents.

 

And as for Shaheed: The man is good at football.

  • Shaheed managed to post four top-18 PPR fantasy finishes in just six games last season. Somehow, that mark tied Tyreek Hill, DJ Moore, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Garrett Wilson, and was more than guys like Jaylen Waddle, George Pickens, DK Metcalf. Not too shabby!
  • The Saints' field-stretching maven has averaged 15+ yards per reception while catching at least 20 passes in each of the last three seasons—something only Pickens has also managed to achieve across the NFL. Nobody has more TD catches on passes thrown 30+ yards downfield than Shaheed (7) over the past two seasons.
  • The former first-team All Pro returner is also electric when bringing back punts as well as sneaky solid on the ground (7.2 career yards per carry on 17 attempts!). 

Shaheed, put simply, is a dawg. Here's to hoping whoever winds up under center for the Saints in 2025 is capable of getting this playmaker the football.

Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook

There are obviously major question marks under center for all parties involved in this passing game, BUT we're talking about two of the VERY few WRs priced outside the position's top-36 options with triple-digit target projections.

Wide receivers projected for 100-plus targets with an Underdog ADP outside top-36 WRs:

While all parties involved have the potential for reduced efficiency due to their respective meh situations under center, the low involved prices make them reasonable picks at cost. I get the concern surrounding Olave's concussion history, although it's worth remembering he played in 31 of a potential 34 games during the 2022-23 seasons.

It'd be shocking if any of Brandin Cooks, Bub Means, or Cedrick Wilson emerge as fantasy-viable assets this season, especially with the Saints continuing to flirt with free agent options like Gabe Davis.

Does Juwan Johnson deserve more respect as a late-round dart throw?

Johnson is more of a WR than TE in many ways. The longtime Saint is a bit undersized (6-foot-4, 231 pounds) relative to a usual inline TE and has more juice (4.58-second 40-yard dash back in the day) than most players at the position. However, unlike someone like Mike Gesicki, Johnson has made more of a habit of actually functioning as an inline option (55% of snaps last season).

Wherever he's lined up: Johnson has done a great job creating separation and getting open.

Top TEs in ESPN's "Open Score" metric from 2022-2024:

  1. Mark Andrews
  2. George Kittle
  3. Travis Kelce
  4. Darren Waller
  5. Juwan Johnson

Johnson actually comes in tied for sixth with Sam LaPorta as ESPN's highest-rated TE overall during this span. Not every efficiency measure paints the former undrafted free agent as a world beater; just realize this is a player capable of making some VERY athletic plays at the position.

As for Taysom Hill and Foster Moreau: Both are expected to miss a large chunk of the offseason following their respective season-ending knee injuries. Hill's in particular is messy and involves more than just an ACL tear; the soon-to-be 35-year-old veteran doesn't look like a lock to make the final roster and it'd also be surprising to see the same devotion to his usual jack-of-all-trades role in this new-look Kellen Moore-led offense.

Bottom line: Johnson's three-year, $30.75 million extension makes him the league's 12th-highest paid option at the position. That's pretty steep investment for someone regularly available at the VERY end of best ball drafts—I LOVE tacking on Johnson as my TE3 when needed, thanks to the potential for him to supply similar numbers as far more expensive options like Hunter Henry and Pat Freiermuth, who are projected for only 8 and 11 additional targets next season.

What teams have the most dire cap situations moving forward?

Well, the Derek Carr retirement helped matters, but that still doesn't leave the Saints sitting all that pretty in terms of the amount of dead money facing their cap sheet over the next two seasons.

  • 2025: $65.8 million in dead money (4th most)
  • 2026: $36.7 million (3rd)

However, the Saints do seem to be on the verge of finally ripping the Band-Aid off and starting a new era of sorts: Their top-four most-expensive assets in terms of 2024 cap number are Taysom Hill (35 in August), Ryan Ramczyk (turned 31 in April), Kamara (30 in July), and Cameron Jordan (36 in July) will all be on the wrong side of 30 by the time Week 1 rolls around.

Prediction for the Saints 2025 Season

The Saints join the Giants, Titans, Jets, and Browns as the only five teams with a lowly 5.5 win total. And it's no surprise why: The massive hole under center is "complemented" by a roster that PFF just ranked as the third-worst group in the league.

Give me the under here for a team currently favored to win only *one* game this season. My bold fantasy prediction is that Chris Olave stays healthy enough to play 15 games and returns top-24 production in full-PPR fantasy land.