Ian Hartitz previews the New York Jets, highlighting the main players with their 2025 fantasy football outlook.

The J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets were supposed to finally put everything together in 2024 with a healthy Aaron Rodgers alongside a defense that many considered one of the better units in the NFL.

Instead, old man Rodgers and the offense were incredibly mediocre, supposed defensive mastermind head coach Robert Saleh was fired in early October, and New York finished with a sub-.500 season for an NFL-high ninth consecutive year.

This was anyone's idea of a bad football team.

New York Jets in 2024:

  • Points per game: 19.9 (24th)
  • EPA per dropback: +0.05 (18th)
  • EPA per rush: -0.11 (20th)
  • Points per game against: 23.8 (20th)

Jets owner Woody Johnson went ahead and infiltrated the Lions coaching staff in an attempt to turn the ship around. It remains to be seen just how qualified and ready to go new head coach Aaron Glenn and OC Tanner Engstrand are, but hey, it can't get much worse! Right? RIGHT?

2025 NEW YORK JETS TEAM PREVIEW

This brings us to today's goal: Answer some key (mostly fantasy-related) questions surrounding the Jets ahead of 2025.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Is Justin Fields THE late-round QB to target this year?

Over the past three seasons there has actually been minimal turnover atop the "fantasy points per dropback" leaderboard. In fact, four QBs have made the metric's top five in three consecutive seasons:

Now, this goodness from 2024 obviously only came across six starts, but for all the grief that Fields catches as a passer: We probably don't give him enough love for what he's capable of doing on the ground. After all, Fields joins Jackson and Jayden Daniels as the only QBs in NFL history to average at least 50 rushing yards per game during their career.

This dual-threat element has really helped Fields consistently rack up rather great numbers in fantasy land, even if his progression as a real-life passer hasn't exactly been awesome:

Fields fantasy points per game:

  • 2022: 19.7 (QB5)
  • 2023: 17.7 (QB11)
  • 2024: 18.9 (QB8)

It remains to be seen if Fields will turn into the first overly successful Jets QB since … Chad Pennington? Mark Sanchez? Joe Namath? Yikes, it really has been rough. But yeah: I wouldn't count on Fields necessarily being confused with some of the league's more elite pure passers anytime soon—have you SEEN this WR room outside of Garrett Wilson?— just realize Fields putting up quality numbers in fantasy land would be par for the course considering how dominant high-volume dual-threat QBs have been over the years.

Consider: 31 QBs had 100-plus carries in a season from 2014-2024, and …

  • 13 (42%) finished as top-three fantasy QBs on a per-game basis
  • 20 (65%) finished as top-six fantasy QBs
  • Only 3 (10%) finished outside fantasy's top-12 QBs (2014 Kaep, 2018 Lamar, 2020 Cam)

Fantasy Life Director of Analytics Dwain McFarland currently has Fields projected for *drum roll please* 132 carries. Barring a complete face-plant collapse that leads to 35-year-old veteran Tyrod Taylor getting the starting job, it sure looks like Fields will have a tough time busting in *fantasy* football.

Justin Fields 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook

I have Fields at QB12 and that feels too low. He's one of my most-drafted players at the position in early best ball drafts. It might not be rocket science, but rushing QBs continue to be one of the closest things our glorious pastime known as fantasy football has to a cheat code.

Is Breece Hall RB1 szn over?

The Jets' featured back doesn't turn 24 until the end of May and has already managed to put forward some pretty, pretty, pretty good fantasy campaigns:

Hall PPR points per game by year:

  • 2022: 16.4 (RB8)
  • 2023: 17.1 (RB6)
  • 2024: 15.1 (RB17)

Of course, the latter season wasn't bad, but as they say: Comparison is the thief of joy, and Hall's production accordingly wasn't nearly what fantasy managers had in mind when they used a first-round pick to acquire his services last August.

So what happened to Hall in 2024? Well, racking up a position-high 15 combined fumbles and drops certainly didn't help matters. Nor did career-low marks in tackles avoided per carry (17.2%, 22nd among 31 RBs) and yards after contact per carry (3, 17th). It was not a great season from the 36th overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft.

And yet, it's also hard to ignore just how rough of an offensive environment Hall has been forced to operate in. His 2022 ACL and meniscus tears were one thing, but this has also been anyone's idea of a BRUTAL setup when it comes to getting reasonable rushing lanes.

Jets RB yards before contact per carry:

  • 2022: 1.09 (30th)
  • 2023: 1.07 (23rd)
  • 2024: 1.08 (26th)

PFF's reigning 17th-ranked offensive line must replace starting tackles Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, but they're actually in a pretty great position to do so in the form of back-to-back top-11 picks Olu Fashanu and Armand Membou. Historically dual-threat QBs like Fields have done a great job elevating this very metric seemingly thanks to their gravity in the read-option game. Of course, as much as athletic QBs might raise the floor of a team's run-game efficiency, they also tend to factor into the rushing equation near the goal line, and usually scramble more than they check down.

Ultimately, even an uptick in yards per carry might not be enough to make up for a reduced role if head coach Aaron Glenn can be taken at his word, although Fantasy Life Projections still have Hall earning a solid 280 combined carries and targets–the eighth-highest mark in the league. It's fair to say Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis don't exactly profile as the steepest competition in the world, and the Jets did next to nothing to address the position in free agency or the draft.

Can Breece Hall be a fantasy draft bargain?

The TD upside and target ceiling that typically go hand-in-hand with elite fantasy backs don't seem to be overly on the table for Hall, but that seems to be more than reflected in his early RB13 (pick 37.9) ADP. While I still prefer cheaper backs like Joe Mixon and RJ Harvey at cost thanks to the potential for similar volume in likely far better overall offenses, Round 4 Hall is a nice piece for rosters that implement WR-heavy starts and want a discount bell cow.

I'm not overly interested in either Allen or Davis as late-round darts due to the reality that we have no idea if either would assume anything close to a workhorse role should Hall miss time with an injury, and again, this isn't exactly the sort of scoring offense we should be dying to get exposure to beyond the key parties.

Do the Jets have any viable WR beyond Garrett Wilson?

Wilson is one of just 10 players in the Super Bowl era to gain at least 1,000 receiving yards in each of the first three seasons of their career. Note that he reached the mark in each season before getting the luxury of a 17th game. This is good company!

Of course, the results in fantasy land haven't exactly been phenomenal. Wilson has finished as the WR30, WR32, and most recently WR20 in PPR points per game, as a mix of incompetent QB play and the presence of Davante Adams have prevented the 24-year-old talent from putting forward the sort of elite season-long campaign the Jets envisioned when they selected him with the 10th overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft.

So why should 2025 be any different with Fields now under center? Well, for one thing, the rest of this WR room is … just sad, really. Like, I honestly get upset looking at this depth chart. Age-30 Josh Reynolds is fresh off catching 13 passes in nine games last year, and 29-year-old Allen Lazard just led the league in drop rate and sent perhaps the saddest Wolf of Wall Street "I'm not leaving" tweet of all time.

Accordingly, Wilson is one of just eight WRs Fantasy Life projects to clear 140 targets this season:

Will Garrett Wilson be worth the high draft pick in 2025?

Unfortunately, Wilson isn't getting much of a discount in the fantasy streets—his current WR13 (pick 25.3) APD is only about a round later than where he was going last year. While I'm actually the second-highest Fantasy Life ranker on Wilson (my WR15), that's a steep price to pay for any pass catcher who could be operating inside the league's least-productive passing game.

I'm OK targeting Wilson in the later stages of Round 3 (ideally Round 4), but hell, even DJ Moore's breakout 2023 campaign with Fields under center produced "only" a WR9 finish–we aren't getting too big of a delta between ADP and that hopeful ceiling.

As for every other player in this sad excuse for a WR room: I'm out.

What are reasonable 2025 rookie-year expectations for Mason Taylor?

The Jets' second-round pick just turned 21 on May 8 (happy belated!), yet sure looks like the frontrunner for immediate starting duties. Now, not every starting TE is created equal around the NFL, it wouldn't be surprising to see Jeremy Ruckert and/or Stone Smartt also carve out roles. But the LSU product should at least be considered a solid favorite.

But what should a realistic Year 1 ceiling really be?

  • The TE4 in Dwain McFarland's Rookie TE Super Model, Taylor has a similar score as studs like Sam LaPorta and Trey McBride … but also busts Hayden Hurst and Irv Smith.
  • Meanwhile, Fantasy Life draft expert Thor Nystrom also reached a TE4 ranking for Taylor, noting, "Taylor has plenty of experience, a three-year starter. He’s an above-average inline blocker for this class, and he has plenty of experience in the slot. The receiving skill, versatility, overall athletic package, and, of course, bloodlines will appeal to the NFL."

Similar to the Wilson-DJM parallel: Fields does have a brief history of enabling a fantasy-friendly TE, as Cole Kmet reached TE9 heights in PPR points per game in 2023 during a solid 73-719-6 campaign. Of course, that was Year 4 for the Bears TE, as players at the position have historically had a rough time getting going in Year 1 despite some recent booms from guys like Brock Bowers and LaPorta.

Is Mason Taylor worth a late-round pick in redraft?

Taylor is a solid LATE-round dart in best ball land for rosters needing an extra player at the position, but his re-draft value seems awfully thin on an offense (again) not expected to be overflowing with excess pass-game production. We can talk about a waiver wire pickup IF the rookie earns a Day 1 full-time role, but a more likely Year 1 scenario seems as the 1.A in a low-production rotation.

All that said: Taylor does profile as a quality mid-round pick in dynasty land, particularly in TE-premium formats where a future QB change could bring out the best of him as a pass catcher.

What defense has fielded the best secondary in recent years?

Surprise: The Jets have a really good argument!

Jets ranks in pass defense from 2022-2024:

  • Yards per attempt: 6.4 (1st)
  • Explosive pass play rate: 10.5% (1st)
  • Defensive EPA per dropback: +0.1 (2nd)
  • Pressure rate: 36.7% (4th)

The latter stat reflects the reality that it's a team effort between the pass rush and coverage to produce great pass-defense stats like these, but one look at the production allowed to specifically WRs gives us a pretty, pretty, pretty good idea as to what position group is especially thriving.

Of course, 2022 is coincidentally the year the Jets drafted stud CB Sauce Gardner with the fourth overall pick. While interceptions matter when discussing the very best corners in the game (Gardner has just 3 in 48 career games), Gardner has been the lynchpin behind objectively one of the better pass defenses in the league during the last three seasons and seems awfully likely to become a VERY rich man in the near future.

NEW YORK JETS 2025 PREDICTION

You probably don't expect much out of the Jets in real life ahead of next season, and get this: Neither does Vegas. Overall, they join the Saints, Browns, Titans, and Giants as the only teams with measly 5.5 win totals.

Sadly, I'm going to go with UNDER on this one. The elite Bills, rising Patriots, and still-competitive Dolphins provide little relief in the AFC East, and there's just too much potential for this offense to sputter in a major way. That said: My bold fantasy prediction for the year is that Justin Fields will produce his second career top-five fantasy finish thanks to that sweet, sweet rushing upside.