Ian Hartitz presents the Pittsburgh Steelers team preview and fantasy football outlook for 2025.

Yes, Mike Tomlin continued his ridiculous 18-year streak of finishing with a record of .500 or better.

Also yes, the 2024 Steelers were never exactly a true force to be reckoned with on the gridiron despite a 10-3 start and wins over playoff teams like the Broncos, Commanders, and Ravens.

Pittsburgh Steelers in 2024:

  • Points per game: 22.4 (16th)
  • EPA per dropback: +0.05 (19th)
  • EPA per rush: -0.12 (24th)
  • Points per game against: 20.4 (8th)

Enter: The 2025 season, and it is official that Aaron Rodgers is the team's new hopeful answer at QB. High-priced WR DK Metcalf and third-round RB Kaleb Johnson will look to ignite a stagnant offense that is also dealing with some serious turnover on the offensive line. Pittsburgh is seemingly relying on culture to achieve newfound teamwide success in January. 

This brings us to today's goal: Answering key (mostly fantasy-related) questions about the Steelers ahead of their 2025 season.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Pittsburgh Steelers 2025 Fantasy Football and Team Preview

What can we expect from Aaron Rodgers in the year 2025?

Now that it's official, Rodgers will work as the Steelers' QB1 in 2025.

On the one hand, Rodgers' best years of his career are certainly in the rear-view mirror. From EPA per dropback (+0.057, 19th), to success rate (44.3%, 24th), and completion percentage over expected (-2.6%, 30th): Life wasn't easy for Rodgers when throwing the football last season, despite having what sure looked like one of the league's better WR duos on paper.

On the other hand, that doesn't mean A-aron isn't capable of providing an improvement relative to what the Steelers have been dealing with in the post-Big Ben era. The man still throws a rather b-e-a-utiful Hail Mary and should still be capable of spinning a catchable ball from the pocket given adequate protection.

Of course, that latter variable is hardly guaranteed in Pittsburgh. PFF's 27th-ranked group from last season must replace starting G James Daniels as well as LT Dan Moore. They did deal with plenty of injuries; just realize this offense ranked 25th in yards before contact per rush and 29th in pressure rate. That's nearly as bad as the situation that Rodgers just left!

Consider: The Jets finished last year ranked 18th in "Supporting Cast Rating" while the Steelers finished … 19th.

It'd make sense if the newfound presence of DK Metcalf makes life easier for this Arthur Smith-led passing game in 2025, although it's not like WR firepower was an issue for Rodgers in New York with Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams serving as one of the league's better one-two punches at the position.

Here's my biggest concern: It was almost astonishing how bad things were for the Jets even with the benefit of good skill position players. The below chart denotes every QB's EPA per dropback and explosive pass play rate on straight dropbacks from clean pockets—and Rodgers is down there in the bottom-left quadrant around some not-so-great company.

 

Look for Rodgers to still manage to hit more than a few pretty deep balls to Metcalf—Arthur Smith has always done a good job with the play-action deep ball dating back to his days with Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee—but those flashes might not be enough to engineer oodles of fantasy football goodness. Overall, Tomlin and Smith's Steelers offense posted a -6% dropback rate over expected mark last season, making them the fourth most run-heavy group in the league.

Aaron Rodgers Fantasy Football Outlook

Bottom line: Ultimately, Rodgers is going to be more of a streamer/late-round option in 2025 fantasy drafts alongside guys like Geno Smith and Matthew Stafford. There's a case to be made that simply using a final-round pick on one of these guys in single-QB leagues is better than devoting an earlier-round selection to similar archetypes like Tua Tagovailoa or Jared Goff (long live the late-round QB strategy!), but then again the expected lack of high-end volume and potential for Father Time to make things worse isn't an ideal combination in fantasy land.

Of course, Mason Rudolph will serve as the backup and become the man in charge if Rodgers gets hurt or decides to ride off into a dark cave the sunset. Kudos to Rudolph for actually playing great football the last time we saw him under center in Pittsburgh; just realize that was an awfully small sample, and the same supporting cast concerns surrounding Rodgers also apply here. I'd bet GOOD money that Rudolph will struggle to be anything more than a meh QB2 in fantasy land should he be gifted with a starting job at any point this season.

Who will rack up bigger numbers between Jaylen Warren and Kaleb Johnson?

The departure of Najee Harris means Jaylen Warren should lead the way in Pittsburgh.

Shoutout to Warren AKA Gen-Z Austin Ekeler for ranking first in tackles avoided per carry (29.8%) and sixth in explosive run rate (9.5%) since entering the league in 2022. The man is a capital D DOG with the football in his hands.

While part of this is the reality that Warren's pass-catching prowess leads to him often getting to attack lighter boxes, a featured role consisting of around 200 carries with bunches of targets (similar to what Ekeler had in Los Angeles) could be borderline erotic for fantasy purposes.

Of course, it's not exactly a guarantee that Warren receives anything close to a bell cow role here. Arthur Smith has historically leaned on multiple RBs, and third-rounder Kaleb Johnson sure looks like a decent bet to lead the way on early downs.

Fantasy Life draft expert Thor Nystrom comped Johnson to Texans great Arian Foster and had the following to say about the 21-year-old rookie in his pre-draft breakdown:

"Johnson is a threat to take it to the house when he gets into the third level. He did this plenty in 2024, finishing 90th percentile in breakaway rate. Johnson assumes an upright sprinter’s stance with open grass in front of him, his legs close together. He doesn’t pump his arms much, and there is zero wasted movement.

“Johnson is able to mitigate the lack of explosion and give himself a runway to access his high-end top speed on stretch-zone concepts. These are the runs where Johnson looks like Le’Veon Bell.”

Johnson is just the RB8 in Dwain McFarland's Rookie RB Super Model, although there certainly is potential for volume to win out. Early Fantasy Life Projections have the Steelers deploying the following split:

  • Warren: 151 carries, 56 targets (RB25 in half-PPR scoring)
  • Johnson: 222 carries, 15 targets (RB29)

Jaylen Warren and Kaleb Johnson 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook

Bottom line: Johnson's fit in Smith's wide-zone scheme is undeniably great, but I wouldn't be so quick to write off Warren as this backfield's most-productive asset. After all, late summer hamstring and knee injuries prevented the 26-year-old veteran from working at his best throughout last season, and his seemingly locked-in pass-down role could provide some serious full-PPR goodness with a stationary QB under center.

Zero-RB drafters should take grace in the fact that this backfield features two talents priced as RB3s in an offense that figures to again be fairly run heavy. I've been comfortable taking shots on both backs during early offseason drafts, but do prefer Warren thanks to the aforementioned pass-game upside.

Is DK Metcalf poised for his biggest workload yet?

Metcalf signed a five-year, $150 million contract with Pittsburgh, making him tied for fifth in terms of annual earnings at the position behind only Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Not too shabby for the 27-year-old veteran, who has caught the fifth-most TDs (48) and racked up the 11th-most yards (6,324) at the position since entering the league back in 2019.

The former Seahawk (WR31 in PPR points per game) functioned as a bit of a boom-or-bust WR3 in 2024. He worked as the WR14 in PPR points per game (15.7) with a solid 23% target share during the first seven weeks of the season. However, from Weeks 11-18 after returning from injury? 10.7 PPR points per game (WR43) and a 20% target share. 

Perhaps it was the midseason MCL injury that knocked down Metcalf's numbers, but the emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba was another example of the veteran failing to completely dominate targets in his own offense. While neither Geno Smith nor Russell Wilson should have exactly been confused with Tom Brady during these years, guys like JSN and Tyler Lockett still found ways to earn more pass-game opportunities. This is pretty wild considering Metcalf is a capital BEAST; God doesn't make too many humans standing 6-foot-3, weighing 228 pounds with 4.33 speed.

That said, the former second-round pick has never quite fully managed to turn his exceptional physical skills into consistently elite fantasy production.

Metcalf PPR points per game since entering the NFL:

  • 2019: 11.7 (WR41)
  • 2020: 17 (WR10)
  • 2021: 14.4 (WR22)
  • 2022: 13.3 (WR25)
  • 2023: 14.1 (WR22)
  • 2024: 12.8 (WR31)

Of course, Metcalf figures to face less competition than ever in Pittsburgh, as there are really only three players who could be called anything close to target competition at this point:

  • Robert Woods: The artist known as Bobby Trees hasn't reached the 600-yard mark in a season since 2020. The 33-year-old veteran certainly has the sort of run-blocking ability and gritty nature to make Tomlin and Arthur Smith happy; just realize Woods failed to become a fantasy-relevant receiver in a better offensive environment with the Texans during the last two seasons.
  • Calvin Austin: Made a startling amount of great plays last season. Seriously: The NFL's top-100 plays video is littered with Austin propaganda. Of course, the pint-sized speedster didn't exactly make much out of his starting role last year (WR79 in PPR points per game), and simply swapping George Pickens for Metcalf doesn't exactly make it likely he suddenly sees a big-time uptick in volume.
  • Roman Wilson: The 2024 third-rounder battled ankle and hamstring injuries throughout his rookie year, ultimately playing just five total snaps and recording *zero* receptions. Here's to hoping Year 2 provides better returns for the shifty Michigan product; it's still tough to envision a true upside scenario as the best-case second banana inside a passing game not exactly expected to resemble the 1999 Rams.

Steelers Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Outlook

Bottom line: I'm cool with buying Metcalf at his current WR28 ADP—that's exactly in line with the boom-or-bust WR3 profile that he's exhibited essentially his entire career. Otherwise, I'm only inclined to throw literal last-round darts at Austin or Wilson on WR-needy rosters. There are better options at the position than complementary options with their best-case scenario featuring a 41-year-old veteran leading a run-first offense.

Should late-round TE drafters give Pat Freiermuth a long look?

Muth has played well enough in his short career to earn a four-year, $48.4 million extension with the Steelers, although we're yet to see the 26-year-old talent truly put forward a big season in fantasy land.

Freiermuth PPR points per game:

  • 2021: 9.5 (TE16)
  • 2022: 9.3 (TE11)
  • 2023: 6.4 (TE28)
  • 2024: 9.9 (TE14)

Now, Muth did average 10.7 PPR points per game (TE12) from Weeks 7-18 with Russell Wilson under center, but that still doesn't exactly seem like the sort of ceiling outcome we should be hoping for in fantasy land.

Bottom line: The TE position does indeed take a bit longer than most to peak; I just have a tough time going TOO hard in the paint for a career borderline TE1 (at best) who ranks outside the top-20 players at the position in yards and targets per route run over the past two seasons. 

Feel free to make a warranted argument that Muth's TE21 ADP is too cheap, but even then I prefer even less expensive late-round darts in much higher-upside passing games like Mike Gesicki and Cade Otton.

Has TJ Watt fallen off at all in recent years?

The four-time All Pro and former Defensive Player of the Year turns 31 in October entering the final year of his contract.

This begs the question: Will Pittsburgh extend their longtime stud pass rusher, or could they sense the future might not be as bright?

While there are some dropoffs in pass-rush win rate and stop percentage, they're still easily in the upper echelon of EDGE defenders, and Watt was PFF's third-highest graded player at the position behind only Aidan Hutchinson and Myles Garrett.

Verdict: Watt remains very good at football.

Prediction for the Steelers 2025 Season

Vegas is daring the betting market to go against Tomlin's entire identity by setting their win total at 8.5.

And you know what? I'm doing just that. Give me under 8.5 wins for a Steelers team with less hope than ever on offense alongside an aging defense that ranked just 18th in EPA allowed per play during the second half of last season. My bold fantasy football prediction is that Jaylen Warren emerges as the most productive RB and puts up top-20 numbers in full-PPR formats.