QB Rankings Downgrades For Week 9 Fantasy Football: Jordan Love & More

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve automatic downgrades to whatever QBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Football DvP (defense vs. position) matrix, as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Vikings and Buccaneers are two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for QBs.

• Vikings: No. 1 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (-7.9)
• Buccaneers: No. 2 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.135)

Here be dragons.

Josh Allen (Bills) at Vikings: Allen is understandably the MVP frontrunner at this point in the season (27.5 fantasy points per game, 1,793 yards passing, 11 TDs, 5 INTs with 55-270-9 rushing). He's a strong passer (65.9% completion rate, 8.7 AY/A) and elite runner (No. 1 with a 16% designed rush share, No. 2 with a 45% goal-line rush share, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). But his setup is tough: The Vikings have the No. 4 HFA over the past 16 games (+6.69, per NFElo), and it's fully amplified in this matchup because they're outside division and conference, on turf (vs. grass), and indoors (vs. outdoors). Plus, this will be their third week out of the past four not on the road. And Allen might be without WRs DJ Moore (knee) and Joshua Palmer (hamstring) and RT Spencer Brown (back). All of that, on top of the matchup! It's just too much.

Caleb Williams (Bears) vs. Buccaneers: Williams has been efficient this year (70.9% completion rate, 8.5 AY/A), but in three games since returning from injury in Week 6, his production has been modest (17.5 fantasy points per game, 860 yards passing, 4 TDs, 0 INTs with 11-22-0 rushing). Plus, he has had negative splits as a home favorite (15.5 fantasy points per game, 59.1% completion rate, 7.2 AY/A vs. 17.9, 62.5%, 7.1 otherwise). Williams has been strong outside division (19-7-1 ATS, 39.1% ROI), and the Bears have had the No. 3 HFA over the past 16 games (+7.26), but they also have a diminished HFA against the Bucs because they play in conference on a similar grass surface in a similar outdoor stadium. Plus, the Bears have a one-day deficit off Monday Night Football, and they're on their third road game in four weeks. Over the past month, the Bucs have an obscene nine INTs with a league-best 12 on the season. Although HC Todd Bowles is a suboptimal in-game strategist, his defense is one of the league's best units.

QB Rankings Scoring Downgrades for Week 9: Kirk Cousins at 49ers & Bryce Young vs. Broncos

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score as many points as it usually does, so I need to push down the QB."

This week, the Raiders are No. 21 in implied team total (21.0 points), and the Panthers are No. 24 (20.25).

Downgrades warranted.

Kirk Cousins (Raiders) at 49ers: At 4-4, the Raiders have been much better than I expected them to be. Their offense is legitimate (No. 6, 27.6 points per game), and that's largely because of HC Klint Kubiak and Cousins, who has been slinging it this season (20.6 fantasy points per game, 2,124 yards passing, 19 TDs, 5 INTs with 20-7-1 rushing). But the Raiders are +9.5 dogs, and Cousins has tended to underperform as a dog of at least a TD (14.7 fantasy points per game, 6.9 AY/A vs. 17.4, 7.7 in all other games). Plus, the Raiders are on their second straight road game after playing on the East Coast last week, and the 49ers could get back some injured defensive starters off the bye.

Bryce Young (Panthers) vs. Broncos: Young has done well this year … sort of. His production is good (18.7 fantasy points per game, 1,921 yards passing, 13 TDs, 5 INTs with 10-34-1 rushing), but his efficiency is much more modest (58.7% completion rate, 7.3 AY/A), and in three games since the Week 5 bye, his numbers have markedly declined (12.9 points per game, 653 yards passing, 4 TDs, 3 INTs with 4-15-0 rushing, 53.3% completion rate, 5.6 AY/A). His setup is good: The Broncos are traveling east for an early 1 pm ET kickoff, the Panthers have three extra days off Thursday Night Football, and they have a boosted HFA because they are outside division and conference and on turf (vs. grass). But the matchup isn't easy: The Broncos are No. 6 in defensive pass DVOA (-5.4%). And LG Damien Lewis (knee) might be out. I wouldn't feel good about starting Young in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week.

Situational Downgrades in QB Rankings for Week 9: Matthew Stafford at Commanders & Jordan Love at Patriots

In general, I want to avoid QBs playing in poor weather conditions, in stadiums with diminished advantages, or in notable subpar situational spots.

Here are two such QBs who stand out.

Matthew Stafford (Rams) at Commanders: The matchup is good, as the Commanders are No. 3 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+5.3), and even without No. 2 WR Davante Adams (hamstring, IR), Stafford has completed 74.1% of his passes over the past two games. Stafford could go off. Still, his production is down in that span (13.9 fantasy points per game, 352 yards passing, 4 TDs, 2 INTs, 6.3 AY/A), and his setup is subpar. For the Commanders, this is their second straight game at home and their fifth week out of seven not on the road. On top of that, they have a boosted HFA because they're outside division, on grass (vs. turf), and outdoors (vs. indoors), and the Rams are traveling across the country for an early 1 pm ET kickoff. Finally, Stafford throughout his career has had negative splits on the road (15.9 fantasy points per game, 7.1 AY/A vs. 18.1, 7.5 in all other games).

Jordan Love (Packers) at Patriots: Love has been good this season (19.4 fantasy points per game, 2,246 yards passing, 16 TDs, 6 INTs with 11-10-1 rushing), especially over the past four games (21.8 points per game, 1,205 yards passing, 8 TDs, 3 INTs with 5-18-1 rushing). But the Pats have the No. 2 HFA over the past 16 games (+8.54), and it's boosted against the Packers because they're outside division and conference and on turf (vs. grass). The Packers have three extra days off Thursday Night Football, but Love has underwhelmed on the road throughout his career (13-18 ATS, -19.3% ROI), especially since last season (4-9 ATS, -41.6% ROI, per Action Network). The Pats are No. 8 in defensive pass DVOA (-3.3%), and the Packers might be without No. 1 WR Christian Watson (ribs), C Sean Rhyan (ankle), and RG Travis Glover (knee).

Notes

Week 9 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

• Introduction
• QB Favorites
• QB Fades
• RB Favorites
• RB Fades
• WR Favorites
• WR Fades
• TE Favorites
• TE Fades

Byes: This week, the Steelers and Titans are off.

Market Odds: As of Tuesday morning.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.

• Tue AM: Publish
• Thu AM: Refresh
• Thu PM: Make necessary TNF changes
• Sat PM: Update
• Sun AM: Revise
• Sun PM: Finalize based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a seven-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop bettor. 

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.

• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
• Home-Field Advantage (HFA)