RB Rankings Downgrades For Week 9 Fantasy Football: Ashton Jeanty Falls

Let's get into the Week 9 RB rankings edition of Freedman's Fades, where I highlight guys I'm downgrading because of …

Unfavorable betting factors and situational spots
Disadvantageous defensive matchups (perhaps amplified by offensive injury)
Decreased usage expectations (again, maybe exacerbated by offensive injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 9 favorites and fades.

RB Rankings For Week 9 (Top 24)

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Rank	Player
1	Jahmyr Gibbs
2	Kenneth Walker
3	Christian McCaffrey
4	Bijan Robinson
5	Javonte Williams
6	Chuba Hubbard
7	Bhayshul Tuten
8	Bucky Irving
9	Kyren Williams
10	James Cook
11	Josh Jacobs
12	D'Andre Swift
13	Chase Brown
14	Rhamondre Stevenson
15	Jonah Coleman
16	Derrick Henry
17	Jonathan Taylor
18	Saquon Barkley
19	Quinshon Judkins
20	Ollie Gordon
21	Ashton Jeanty
22	Cam Skattebo
23	Blake Corum
24	Braelon Allen

Week 9 RB Rankings Matchup Downgrades: Derrick Henry vs. Jaguars & Ashton Jeanty at 49ers

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve as automatic downgrades to whatever RBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Football DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix, as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Jaguars and 49ers are two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for RBs.

Jaguars: No. 1 in fewest fantasy points allowed to RBs (14.6)
49ers: No. 1 in defensive rush EPA (-0.212)

Here be dragons.

Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs. Jaguars: QB Lamar Jackson (thumb, previously ankle) exited Week 4 early, missed the next three games, and then suffered a potentially season-ending injury on his first snap of Week 8. With a partial/absent Jackson, Henry has been a shell of himself over the past five games (11.7 fantasy points per game, 368 yards, 3 TDs vs. 24.1, 339 yards, 6 in Weeks 1-3). What's worse: In Week 8, No. 2 QB Tyler Huntley (toe) also suffered an injury, so the Ravens could be rolling with undrafted rookie third-stringer Joe Fagnano. On top of that, they could also be without LG John Simpson (back), RG Olaivavega Ioane (knee), and RT Roger Rosengarten (ankle). With short time to prepare before Thursday Night Football, the Ravens are +8.5 dogs, and Henry as a dog of at least a TD has had notable splits across his career (12.0 fantasy points per game, 68.3 yards, 0.83 TDs vs. 15.5, 98.2, 0.85 otherwise).

Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) at 49ers: Last week, I highlighted Jeanty as a fantasy fade, and he played behind rookie Mike Washington as a pass-catching specialist (8.8 fantasy points, 73 yards, 0 TDs on 2 carries, 4 targets, 37% snap rate, 71 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). While his production for the season is theoretically "fine" (14.2 fantasy points per game, 713 yards, 4 TDs on 108 carries, 48 targets, 91 Utilization Score), his recent usage is troubling. The Raiders are +9.5 dogs; they're on their second straight road game after playing on the East Coast last week, and the 49ers could get back some injured defensive starters off the bye. Across his brief career, Jeanty has been notably worse as a road dog (11.0 fantasy points per game, 75.5 yards, 0.33 TDs vs. 15.3, 86.8, 0.77 otherwise). I wouldn't feel good about starting Jeanty in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week.

Scoring Downgrades in the Week 9 RB Ranks: James Cook at Vikings & Chuba Hubbard vs. Broncos

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score as many points as it usually does, so I need to push down the RBs."

This week, the Bills are No. 11 in implied team total (24.75 points), and the Panthers are No. 24 (20.25).

Downgrades warranted.

James Cook (Bills) at Vikings: Cook has been a stud this year (18.0 fantasy points per game, 817 yards, 7 TDs on 138 carries, 17 targets, 82 Utilization Score), but the matchup is tough, as the Vikings are No. 1 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (-4.1). On top of that is the setup: The Vikings have the No. 4 HFA over the past 16 games (+6.69, per NFElo), and it's fully amplified because they're outside division and conference, on turf (vs. grass), and indoors (vs. outdoors). Plus, this will be their third week out of the past four not on the road, and the Bills could be without RT Spencer Brown (back).

Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs. Broncos: Hubbard, without No. 2 RB Jonathon Brooks (abdomen, IR), has been a workhorse since Week 3 (17.3 fantasy points per game, 539 yards, 4 TDs on 96 carries, 21 targets, 91 Utilization Score). The setup is good: The Broncos are traveling east for an early 1 pm ET kickoff, the Panthers have three extra days off Thursday Night Football, and they have a boosted HFA because they are outside division and conference and on turf (vs. grass). Additionally, the Broncos are only No. 26 in defensive rush EPA (-0.047). But the offensive line is a mess: LG Damien Lewis (knee) might be out, on top of LT Ikem Ekwonu (knee, PUP) and RT Taylor Moton (lower leg, IR). And since the Week 5 bye, the Panthers have averaged just 19.0 points per game.

Road Dog Downgrades in the Week 9 RB Rankings: Josh Jacobs at Patriots & Bucky Irving at Bears

In general, I want to be light on RBs who are underdogs on the road, where they could disappoint through no real fault of their own and then lose opportunities to backups in garbage time.

Here are two such RBs who stand out.

Josh Jacobs (Packers) at Patriots: Last week I highlighted Jacobs as a fantasy favorite, and he delivered (20.2 fantasy points, 52 yards, 2 TDs on 21 carries, 6 targets), albeit with absolutely brutal efficiency (1.9 yards per carry, 2.2 yards per target). In two games since returning in Week 7, he has been an RB1 (18.9 fantasy points per game, 143 yards, 3 TDs on 32 carries, 13 targets, 91 Utilization Score). But as a road dog, he has underwhelmed throughout his career (13.7 fantasy points per game, 96.1 yards, 0.50 TDs vs. 15.3, 92.8, 0.82 otherwise), especially with the Packers (12.2, 68.8, 0.80 vs. 16.2, 92.4, 1.00). The Pats have the No. 2 HFA over the past 16 games (+8.54), and it's boosted against the Packers because they're outside division and conference and on turf (vs. grass). The Packers have three extra days off Thursday Night Football, but they might be without C Sean Rhyan (ankle) and RG Travis Glover (knee), and the Pats are No. 3 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (-3.7).

Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) at Bears: In his two games since QB Baker Mayfield returned in Week 7, Irving has gone off (22.3 fantasy points per game, 280 yards, 3 TDs on 51 carries, 2 targets). But it's concerning that he has ceded a large amount of work to No. 2 RB Kenneth Gainwell in that span (54% snap rate, 50% rush share, 42% route rate, 70 Utilization Score vs. 40%, 40%, 32%, 53). The Bucs have an extra day on the Bears coming off Monday Night Football, but they're also +5.5 road dogs, and the Bears have the No. 3 HFA over the past 16 games (+7.26). On top of that, the Bears are No. 4 in fewest fantasy points allowed to RBs (16.1), and they got a DL boost last week with the acquisition of first-team All-Pro DT Jeffery Simmons. Finally, Bucs HC Todd Bowles tends to underwhelm (more than usual) in primetime (10-18-1 ATS, -28.8% ROI, per Action Network).

Notes

Week 9 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Introduction
QB Favorites
QB Fades
RB Favorites
RB Fades
WR Favorites
WR Fades
TE Favorites
TE Fades

Byes: This week, the Steelers and Titans are off.

Market Odds: As of Tuesday morning.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.