Ian Hartitz presents the San Francisco 49ers team preview and fantasy football outlook for the 2025 NFL season.

The 49ers were a fourth-down stop away from winning Super Bowl LVIII and accordingly (again) profiled as one of the top contenders in the league entering last season.

Or not. The injury bug and a rough 2-6 record in one-score games prevented Kyle Shanahan and Co. from winning the NFC West for the third year in a row. San Fran wound up losing seven of its final eight games; this was by most accounts a mediocre football team last season.

San Francisco 49ers in 2024:

  • Points per game: 22.9 (13th)
  • EPA per dropback: +0.14 (9th)
  • EPA per rush: -0.06 (12th)
  • Points per game against: 25.6 (29th)

Good news: A new season will *hopefully* bring better injury luck for offensive stars like Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, and Brandon Aiyuk, while the decision to devote four top-100 draft picks to the defense and bring back old friend Robert Saleh as DC should help the 2025 version of this group get back to their typical top-10 standing.

This brings us to today's goal: Answering key (mostly fantasy-related) questions about the 49ers ahead of their 2025 season.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

San Francisco 49ers 2025 Fantasy Football And Team Preview

Is Brock Purdy simply a system QB?

We live in a society where even the world's best athletes aren't excluded from slander. Hell, people still find ways to hate on Jalen Hurts when the man just won Super Bowl MVP for crying out loud.

I say this because the only similarities Purdy has with "system" QBs like Jimmy Garoppolo or Nick Mullens comes down to each posting elite efficiency numbers in Kyle Shanahan's offense. Yes, Purdy owes Shanny and the 49ers' playmakers at least some credit for his success. Also yes, few signal-callers have been as good as Purdy at making something out of nothing when the play has broken down over the years. 

Consider: EPA per dropback and explosive pass-play rate over the past three seasons when the throw has come three seconds or later after the snap AKA the sort of situations where the first and second read probably weren't available so the QB had to hold the ball and improvise.

 

Plenty of these scenarios also involved Purdy picking up yards with his legs. This dude runs sideline to sideline while avoiding pressure more than almost any QB in the league, and he ultimately wound up averaging the 10th most fantasy points per game rushing (4.2) at the position—even more than guys like Bo Nix (3.9) and Daniel Jones (3.9)!

Ultimately, the verdict on Purdy was that he was simply a product of Shanahan's system and couldn't operate without a fully healthy supporting cast. Remember the discourse surrounding his 17-point efforts without Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams in 2023? Anyway, all Purdy did last season while dealing with injuries to virtually every key playmaker involved on the offense at some point was work as the QB10 in fantasy points per game. He was the QB7 in 2023 and the QB13 during his stint as the starter in 2022.

Maybe this guy is simply really good at football! 

Brock Purdy Fantasy Football Outlook

Purdy has plenty of room for passing TD regression (4.4%) after posting 7.6% and 7% marks in 2022-23. Throw in what is considered possibly the single-easiest schedule in the league and *hopefully* better luck from the injury gods, and it sure seems like a bounceback campaign is on the table for the 49ers' $265 million man.

The QB11 in early ADP, Purdy is my QB10 (highest among fantasy rankers) and someone I prefer over youngsters like Drake Maye and Caleb Williams due to his proven production and superior offensive environment.

Question 2: Should fantasy managers still be drafting Christian McCaffrey in Round 1 in 2025?

There was a wild phenomenon not seen in YEARS going around in post-draft fantasy football land that featured none other than Mr. Christian McCaffrey going off the board in the early parts of Round 2!

Sadly, that price tag didn't stick, and the future fantasy football Hall of Famer will now cost you a late first-rounder in more drafts than not. Of course, the only reason why he's still this cheap is because of age (CMC turns 29 in June) and the idea that injuries may have caught up to the longtime league-winning RB. While most would have to admit McCaffrey is at more injury risk than the average back, we shouldn't exactly treat this idea as a binary "you either are or aren't injury prone." Note that Jonathan Taylor (16) has actually missed more games than McCaffrey (14) over the past three seasons.

Ultimately, CMC (22.1) joins Jim Brown (20.8) and LaDainian Tomlinson (20.3) as the only RBs in NFL history to average at least 20 PPR points per game. Learned doctors believe McCaffrey is fully healthy ahead of 2025 and are willing to bet on him. I am too!

But if the masses are right and CMC is unable to stay healthy? Look out for Isaac Guerendo, who is ready to work as the clear-cut No. 2 RB with Elijah Mitchell (Chiefs) and Jordan Mason (Minnesota) now wearing red and purple, respectively.

Overall, Guerendo played at least 50% of the offense's snaps in four games last season:

  • Week 8: 14-85-1 rushing, 3-17-0 receiving, 63% snaps, PPR RB10
  • Week 14: 15-78-2 rushing, 2-50-0 receiving, 56%, RB2
  • Week 15: 16-57-0 rushing, 4-18-0 receiving, 76%, RB25
  • Week 17: 9-34-0 rushing, 4-65-0 receiving, 61%, RB11

While Guerendo didn't exactly resemble the second coming of Chris Johnson during his time as the team's lead RB, he did flash some serious big-play ability despite dealing with foot and hamstring injuries down the stretch. Either way, that's the only real concern here: Patrick Taylor shaved off just enough work to prevent Guerendo from having a true every-down role during his time as starter, although the aforementioned injuries combined with the reality that the 49ers added only fifth-rounder Jordan James as competition still makes CMC's backup someone worth getting excited about in the later rounds of fantasy drafts.

Christian McCaffrey Fantasy Football Outlook

McCaffrey is the consensus RB5 and someone who you could reasonably rank as high as RB3 without getting too big of a complaint from me. He's my 12th-ranked player overall only behind seven of the game's brightest young upside stars at WR.

Meanwhile, Guerendo is firmly in the RB4 handcuff tier with guys like Tyler Allgeier, Trey Benson, and Ray Davis—the rising second-year talent would instantly be in the weekly top-15 conversation should McCaffrey miss any time. But then again, there's a weekly risk of a complete zero anytime the 49ers' starting RB is healthy enough to suit up.

Are there *three* wide receivers in SF who deserve high-end fantasy consideration?

Well, judging by the price tag for each of Jauan Jennings (WR36 ADP), Ricky Pearsall (WR41), and Brandon Aiyuk (WR46): Yes!

Let's break down the candidates here:

Jennings: Emerged as a legit high-end pass-catcher last season after mostly "just" being a badass blocker during the first three seasons of his career. Now equipped with a legit full-time role with Deebo Samuel out of the picture, it sure seems like Jennings has triple-digit target upside and the potential to work as one of this passing game's top dogs while Aiyuk is sidelined. Reminder: Jennings was the WR26 in PPR points per game last year and would have cleared the 1,000-yard mark with better health.

Pearsall: On the one hand, there were flashes down the stretch of Pearsall running some silky smooth routes to get open vs. man coverage, and we saw this produce legit results during the final two weeks of the season against the Lions (8-141-1) and Cardinals (6-69-1). On the other hand, I don't love the fact that Pearsall wasn't credited with a single forced missed tackle on 31 receptions last year, and the five-game stretch where he totaled 21 total yards despite running a route on 69% of Purdy's dropbacks isn't ideal. Obviously coming back from literally getting shot in the preseason deserves to be mentioned in any critique of Pearsall's rookie season; either way, it's a bit of a leap of faith in thinking the rising second-year talent is good enough to displace either Aiyuk or George Kittle in this pass-game pecking order when everyone is healthy.

Aiyuk: Had surgery in mid-November to repair a torn ACL and MCL. This later-season timing and multi-ligament nature of the injury adds quite a bit of concern when attempting to project an early-season return, although being optimistic with a potential 9-12 month timeline would put him on pace to perhaps get back to work at some point in September. Still, the PUP list certainly seems in play; it seems reasonable to expect the stud WR to miss at least the first four games of the season.

Finally, a shoutout to Demarcus Robinson, who caught 7 TDs for the Rams last season and notably runs this goal-line route better than any human alive.

Bottom line: This is one of those situations where the uncertainty surrounding the health and upside of everyone involved has resulted in all parties being priced cheaper than they should be. Accordingly, we have a nice opportunity to buy each of Jennings, Pearsall, and Aiyuk at WR4 price tags when it seems likely that each could work as upside WR3 types whenever on the field. This point holds doubly true for Jennings and Pearsall considering their potential to eat during the early part of the season while Aiyuk is sidelined.

Ultimately, I lean toward Jennings leading the way during the early part of the season, but Aiyuk the second he's able to suit up and perform at his typical level. That said: Starting RBs like D'Andre Swift, Isiah Pacheco, and Aaron Jones are also available in this range, and I've accordingly spent more draft capital on this last tier of clear-cut backs than non-alpha WRs in run-first offenses that project to be fairly spread out like the Colts, 49ers, Packers, and Bills.

Question 4: Is George Kittle poised for his biggest season yet?

It might seem wild to expect such heights from a TE who will be 32 in October, but then again nothing from last season would suggest that we're looking at anything other than one of the best pass catchers in the world.

 

Overall, Kittle became just the fifth player in NFL history to gain over 1,100 yards on under 100 targets, joining Stefon Diggs, DeSean Jackson, Jordy Nelson, and Mike Wallace. Pretty good company, and again to make this point clear: HE'S A TIGHT END!

It's honestly been impressive how productive Kittle has managed to be over the years despite all the mouths to feed in this ever-crowded 49ers offense.

Kittle rank in PPR points per game by year:

  • 2018: TE3
  • 2019: TE2
  • 2020: TE3
  • 2021: TE4
  • 2022: TE2
  • 2023: TE6
  • 2024: TE1

George Kittle Fantasy Football Outlook

Kittle is tied for my fifth-most drafted TE this year and honestly I'm just mad I haven't managed to get more. Regularly going after the top-24 WRs, top-15 RBs, and top-four QBs, Kittle is in a sweet spot in drafts where you aren't exactly foregoing no-doubt elite options at other positions to fill the TE onesie spot.

What teams are most willing to leave one RB on the field?

The following table denotes how often every NFL team played an RB on at least 60%, 75%, and 90% of their offense's snaps in a single game last season.

 

Note: San Fran hilariously hit the 60% mark in 106% of their games thanks to FB Kyle Juszczyk and Jordan Mason both clearing the threshold in the same game on one occasion last season.

But yeah: Only the Rams and Bengals were actually more willing than the 49ers to leave *one* RB on the field for at least 75% of the offense's snaps last season—and that was with CMC banged up all year!

Death, taxes, Kyle Shanahan giving whoever his RB1 is a fantasy-friendly featured role. And for that: We thank you.=

Prediction For The 49ers 2025 Season

The 49ers' 10.5 win total reflects the reality that Vegas and the world at large doesn't seem to be buying San Fran's down 2024 campaign as a sign of more bad things to come. Ultimately, I do believe the fourth-place schedule and effort to get younger on defense will pay dividends: Give me OVER 10.5 wins for a squad that has averaged double-digit wins per season since 2019.

As for my bold fantasy call: George Kittle parlays a career-high target total into an overall TE1 finish, again emerging as planet Earth's single-best option at the position if we were forced to play a Space Jam-inspired football game against aliens to save humanity.