Ian Hartitz dives in on the team preview and fantasy football outlook for the 2025 Seattle Seahawks.

Year 1 of the post-Pete Carroll era in Seattle wasn't all bad. Mike Macdonald and Co. wound up winning 10 games, including six of their final eight contests down the stretch.

And yet, the team's middling +7 point differential reflects the reality that this wasn't exactly a powerhouse.

Seattle Seahawks in 2024:

  • Points per game: 22.1 (18th)
  • EPA per dropback: +0.04 (20th)
  • EPA per rush: -0.13 (25th)
  • Points per game against: 21.6 (11th)

Clearly the front office wasn't content with running things back on offense, signing Sam Darnold and Cooper Kupp to replace longtime stalwarts Geno Smith and DK Metcalf. It remains to be seen how these signings will pan out, but hey, at least the organization is trying stuff! Right? RIGHT?

This brings us to today's goal: Answering key (mostly fantasy-related) questions about the Seahawks ahead of their 2025 season.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Seattle Seahawks 2025 Fantasy Football And Team Preview

Can Sam Darnold replicate his 2024 magic in Seattle?

Darnold might have been seeing ghosts throughout his first six years of ball in New York, Carolina, and San Francisco, but make no mistake about it: The man was pretty, pretty, pretty great during his one year in Minnesota.

Darnold among 31 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks in 2024:

  • EPA per dropback: +0.127 (No. 14)
  • Completion percentage over expected: +3.9% (No. 7)
  • Yards per attempt: 7.9 (No. 6)
  • Passer rating: 102.5 (No. 6)
  • PFF pass grade: 80.3 (No. 9)

Yes, the last two games were a little f*cked up. Also yes, Darnold is still just 28 years young, and last year was more or less the first time we actually got to see an extended view of him inside of a halfway decent offensive environment.

Give the much-maligned former No. 3 overall pick credit for helping engineer one of the league's most efficient passing attacks during the first 17 weeks of the season.

One little problem: Darnold's offense is hardly guaranteed to be as QB-friendly in 2025 as it was 2024. Last year's Vikings were superior to the Seahawks when it came to Supporting Cast Rating, and that was before Seattle swapped DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett with Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Throw in PFF's reigning 31st-ranked offensive line, and it's fair to say this Seahawks offensive environment might be a bit closer to what Darnold saw during his years in New York as opposed to his time with Kevin O'Connell and Co.

Now, new Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak did indeed get some good moments out of Derek Carr (particularly before the Saints suffered so many o-line and WR injuries), but it's tough to say that his X's and O's will be able to fully overcome the potential disadvantage with their Jimmy's and Joe's.

Sam Darnold Fantasy Football Outlook

The reigning QB9 in fantasy points per game (18.1), Darnold is suddenly someone who has proven capable of supplying QB1-level goodness across an entire season. Still, the potential for defensive-minded head coach Mike Macdonald to embrace the run, combined with such little offensive firepower outside of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, makes it tough to shoot the veteran too high up in the ranks. The early-mid QB20 range alongside fellow pocket passers in meh offenses like C.J. Stroud and Tua Tagovailoa feels about right.

Is Kenneth Walker poised to see a workhorse role?

Walker looked like he had the potential to be the next big thing at the position after racking up 1,215 total yards and 9 TDs in 15 games as a rookie. Unfortunately, injuries have prevented Walker from getting rolling for too long basically every step of the way.

  • 2022 (2 missed games): Hamstring, hernia, ankle
  • 2023 (2 missed games): Groin, abdomen
  • 2024 (6 missed games): Abdomen, calf, ankle

Here's a shocker: Walker has already been limited in early summer sessions due to an ankle issue. Not great!

And yet, there's something special about the way Walker runs the football. He's got the speed to take any touch the distance, breaks ankles in the open field with the best of 'em, hurdles finely tuned athletic machines: This is one of the most fun RBs to watch in all of football when things are going right.

 

The tackle-breaking ability is quantifiably absurd. PFF charted Walker with a whopping 39.9% tackles avoided rate on rushes—that's the highest mark since at least 2020 among RBs with at least 150 carries in a season!

 

Here's the thing: Breaking tackles is really the only thing that Walker has consistently done better than his backfield mate Zach Charbonnet over the past two seasons. Obviously they are different players being asked to do different things against defenses likely treating them differently, but man, I'm guessing someone who hasn't watched football would pretty quickly choose Charbonnet as the superior RB just based on these numbers.

 

Charbonnet has managed to consistently supply some solid fantasy production when KWIII has been sidelined. Overall, he's posted PPR RB1, RB7, RB8, RB13, RB17, RB18, RB20, RB30, and RB39 finishes in nine games as the offense's featured back over the past two seasons. Charbs racked up an average of 19.3 combined carries and targets in these contests: It's clear the Seahawks view him as a capable every-down back.

Bottom line: I'm buying the Walker breakout hype ahead of 2025. He was already the RB7 in Utilization Score last season thanks in large part to his breakout out as a receiver: Walker's 7.4 PPR points per game from just passing game production was good for the sixth-highest mark at the position! One year's worth of blessing from the Injury gods could help produce cinema inside Klint Kubiak's wide-zone rushing scheme—he's my RB12 ahead of guys with lower ADPs like Chase Brown and James Cook thanks to the potential for this elite tackle breaker to handle a true every-down role inside this new and (hopefully) improved Seahawks run game.

As for Charbonnet: The handcuff upside is undeniable, but I don't love the extra cost needed to acquire him compared to fellow clear No. 2 options like Tyler Allgeier, Trey Benson, and Ray Davis among others.

Could Jaxon Smith-Njigba compete for the league lead in targets?

The 2023 NFL Draft's 20th overall pick had a rookie season to forget after totaling just 63 catches for 628 yards despite not missing any game action. Whether you want to blame an August wrist fracture, Shane Waldron, or simply JSN adjusting to the professional game: It was tough to be too optimistic ahead of 2024.

And then a funny thing happened: Smith-Njigba started balling out! One of just 10 players to catch triple-digit passes last season, the Ohio State product also racked up 1,130 yards while emerging as the team's go-to pass-game target. He already looks the part of a crafty veteran slot maven capable of creating consistent separation thanks to his smooth athleticism and understanding of space.

More downfield opportunities helped—JSN's average target depth increased from 6.4 to 9.2—as did more trust from Geno Smith in general. Overall, Smith-Njigba caught just 3 of 12 contested targets in 2023 (25%) before snagging 12 of 26 contested opportunities in 2024 (46.2%).

But can JSN keep all this up with new competition in the form of Cooper Kupp?

Short answer: Probably. Kupp's "Open Rating" separation metric and rank by year reflects the reality that we aren't quite looking at the same baller these days.

Kupp "Open Rating" by year:

  • 2021: 76 (13th)
  • 2022: 55 (56th)
  • 2023: 47 (72nd)
  • 2024: 32 (107th)

Injuries have certainly played a role, but yeah: Not great! To be fair, there was still a ceiling here either way: Kupp worked as the overall WR4 in PPR points in Weeks 8-14 last season.

The former Triple Crown winner will still be remembered as one of the most productive receivers of the 2020s, but I have a hard time getting behind a 32-year-old veteran who likely won't get as many opportunities to operate out of the friendly confines of the slot as he's used to.

Finally, there's MVS, who hilariously managed to put his best foot forward in New Orleans last year despite dealing with the worst QBs of his career:

Marquez Valdes-Scantling receiving yards per game by QB:

The man made some plays! And there's enough familiarity between MVS and his old OC Klint Kubiak to believe he'll catch at least a few b-e-a-utiful deep balls fromn Darnold; just realize we're still talking about a guy projected for a lowly 38 targets on the season.

Bottom line: There are enough moving pieces to be at least somewhat skeptical about JSN repeating last year's WR18 goodness in full-PPR land, but then again maybe we shouldn't overthink the clear-cut 23-year-old No. 1 pass-game option who just caught 100 passes in his second professional season. Ultimately, I'm in line with JSN's WR18 ADP and don't avoid him in drafts, albeit I wouldn't say I go out of my way to continuously take him ahead of guys like Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams in that same range.

On the other hand, Cooper Kupp is someone I haven't drafted much at all this offseason. The WR49 ADP isn't bad, but I've preferred youthful options who flashed in 2024 like Josh Downs and Keon Coleman at that price.

MVS is a last-round dart in best ball land for those trying to build Darnold stacks. Even then, meh.

Should you target Elijah Arroyo in dynasty land?

The TE6 in both Dwain McFarland's Rookie TE Super Model and Thor Nystrom's pre-draft TE rankings, Arroyo profiles as the sort of young TE very much capable of siphoning away targets from Noah Fant even if it takes him a beat to earn a full-time role.

Just read Thor's description on the Miami product, who even earned a Mike Gesicki comp!

“Arroyo is a big, athletic receiving target. The former four-star recruit was a high school track star. Arroyo had a breakout season in 2024—posting a career-best 35-590-7 receiving line. He followed that up with a fabulous showing at the Senior Bowl. Arroyo consistently gained separation, and caught everything in sight … I like what I’ve seen from Arroyo down the field and in the red zone—and acknowledge the value of that. But Arroyo’s struggles blocking defensive ends means he’s a big slot, and I’m concerned that at present he’s a bit of a one-trick pony in that capacity.”

Kubiak regularly rotated multiple TEs with the Saints, and the Seahawks thought enough of 2024 fourth-rounder AJ Barner to play him for at least 25% of the offense's snaps in every game of last season. Barring the team outright releasing Fant (it's possible), this profiles as a muddled committee unlikely to produce a consistent high-end fantasy option in the near term.

Bottom line: I'm out on all parties involved in redraft land, while Arroyo's potential to be more of a one-trick pony as opposed to full-time inline option at the position has me preferring fellow Day 2 guys like Terrance Ferguson and Mason Taylor in the middle rounds of dynasty rookie drafts.

How sad has the Seahawks investment in their offensive line been over the years?

Very. First of all, this group was horrendous last season …

  • PFF's reigning 31st-ranked unit
  • 30th in rush yards before contact per carry
  • 29th in pressure rate allowed

… and that makes sense because the front office has largely ignored them for the better part of the last decade:

  • Dead last in 2025 dollars devoted to the O-line
  • Seattle has used just two top-50 picks on the offensive line over the last nine drafts combined

Starting C Connor Williams retiring during the middle of last season sums up all you need to know about this group. LT Charles Cross deserves credit for earning PFF's 10th-best grade among 87 qualified players at the position. Maybe rookie first-rounder Grey Zabel steps in and immediately supplies some great play, but that feels like wishful thinking.

But hey, at least the team now has a FB in 270-pound monster Robbie Ouzts!

Prediction For The Seahawks 2025 Season

The Seahawks enter 2025 with an 8.5 win total—a mark which they've topped 12 times in the last 13 years!

And yet, this bozo is taking the under. Maybe the team's high-profile QB and WR transactions yield great results, but I'm VERY concerned about this offensive line bringing the worst out of Darnold. I'm also a bit dubious of the generally overwhelmingly positive Kubiak discourse. Yes, the Saints dealt with a lot of rough injuries early on last season … but we're also making quite a few excuses for a guy who led one of the worst offenses in the league Weeks 3-18. Are we REALLY going to solely give him credit for blowing out the Panthers and Cowboys in Weeks 1-2? Surely those weren't the league's worst two scoring defenses!

That said: My bold fantasy prediction is that Kenneth Walker rides a rare bill of good health to a top-eight finish in fantasy land thanks to a boatload of touches and enough explosive plays to make up for an overall meh scoring offense.