
TE Rankings Downgrades For Week 3 Fantasy Football: Colston Loveland Leads Freedman's Fades
Matthew Freedman profiles five tight ends seeing significant downgrades in his Week 3 fantasy football rankings.
Let's get into the Week 3 TE rankings edition of Freedman's Fades, where I highlight guys I'm downgrading because of …
- Unfavorable betting factors and situational spots
- Disadvantageous defensive matchups (perhaps amplified by offensive injury)
- Decreased usage expectations (again, maybe exacerbated by offensive injury)
For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 3 favorites and fades.
Week 3 Tight End Rankings (The Top 15)
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| Rank | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Trey McBride |
| 2 | Dalton Kincaid |
| 3 | Brock Bowers |
| 4 | Sam LaPorta |
| 5 | Tucker Kraft |
| 6 | Travis Kelce |
| 7 | George Kittle |
| 8 | Isaiah Likely |
| 9 | Tyler Warren |
| 10 | Dalton Schultz |
| 11 | Juwan Johnson |
| 12 | Colston Loveland |
| 13 | Harold Fannin |
| 14 | Mark Andrews |
| 15 | Oronde Gadsden |
Matchup Downgrade In My Week 3 Tight End Rankings: Colston Loveland vs. Eagles
There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve automatic downgrades to whatever TEs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.
Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Football DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Eagles last year were one of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for TEs.
- Eagles: No. 1 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (-51.9%)
Here be dragons.
Colston Loveland vs. Eagles: I don't even know what to say. Despite actually getting playing time (79% route rate), Loveland has gotten almost no real work (five targets, 40 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report), and what he has done with that work (1-3-0 receiving) … is disgusting beyond words. I know that Loveland had a position-high 89% rate route in Week 1. I know that he had 28-378-2 receiving on 48 targets and a 100 Utilization Score as a 21-year-old rookie in his final four games of the 2025 season (including playoffs). But QB Caleb Williams (hamstring) is doubtful to play, and the Eagles might have the league's best secondary. This is not the week to catch the falling knife Loveland has dropped.
Week 3 Tight End Rankings Scoring Downgrades: Hunter Henry at Jaguars & Cade Otton vs. Vikings
Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score many points, so I need to push down the TEs."
Entering the season, I had a good amount of respect for the Patriots and Buccaneers offenses. But this week the Pats are No. 20 in implied team total (21 points), and the Bucs are No. 22 (20.5).
Downgrades warranted.
Hunter Henry (Patriots) at Jaguars: Last week without No. 1 WR A.J. Brown (ankle, IR), Henry saw an uptick in production and usage (3-40-0 receiving, five targets, 81% route rate, 65 Utilization Score). But the Pats haven't scored more than 20 points in a game, and now they're on the road against the Jags, who last year had the No. 1 home-field advantage (+17.4, per NFElo). On top of that, the Pats are granting an additional edge to the Jags because they're outside of division and on grass (vs. turf).
Cade Otton (Bucs) vs. Vikings: On the plus side, Otton has the underlying numbers necessary to support production (84% route rate, 11 targets). On the negative side, necessity isn't sufficiency: Otton's production has been puny (8-64-0 receiving). The Vikings last year were No. 5 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (-2.0), and HC Todd Bowles has historically been his worst in Week 3 (1-7 ATS, -75.8% ROI, per Action Network).
Tight End Rankings: Week 3 Offensive Injury Downgrades: Tucker Kraft vs. Falcons & Isaiah Likely vs. Titans
Here are a couple of TEs who get downgrades because of injuries to supporting offensive players.
Tucker Kraft (Packers) vs. Falcons: The setup is good for Kraft. No. 3 WR Jayden Reed (back) could be out. The Packers have an amplified home-field advantage against the Falcons, who are out of division, on grass (vs. turf) and outdoors (vs. indoors), and could be without CBs A.J. Terrell (groin, IR) and possibly Billy Bowman (Achilles) in the secondary. HC Matt LaFleur has historically done well at home (37-24 ATS, 16.3% ROI) and in Weeks 1-4 (19-11 ATS, 22.3% ROI). But the Packers are -6.5 favorites. They probably won't need much from Kraft as a receiver to win the game. They might, however, need extra from him as a blocker because of the OL cluster injuries to RT Zach Bako-Bewele (knee) and LG Aaron Banks (toe). I can imagine his Week 3 performance looking a lot like that of Week 2 (2-15-0 receiving, three targets).
Isaiah Likely (Giants) vs. Titans: QB Jaxson Dart (knee) is all but certain to miss Week 3, and linchpin LT Andrew Thomas (groin) also exited Week 2 with an injury. Likely has been great this year (13-111-2 receiving, 18 targets, 95 Utilization Score), so you probably can't bench him, especially since YOLO No. 2 QB Jameis Winston always has the potential to go off for 300+ yards and three TDs, but the Giants are on a one-day rest-and-prep deficit, and floor for Likely will almost certainly be lower with Winston starting.
Notes
Week 3 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.
Defensive Matchups: Since the season is just two weeks old, I still rely primarily on prior defensive data.
Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.
Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.
- Tue AM: Publish
- Thu AM: Refresh
- Thu PM: Make necessary TNF changes
- Sat PM: Update
- Sun AM: Revise
- Sun PM: Finalize based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff
Accuracy: I'm a seven-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop bettor.
Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.
Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
Players Mentioned in this Article
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