Trey McBride Fantasy Football Outlook: The Cornerstone TE for 2025
Fantasy

Trey McBride Fantasy Football Outlook: The Cornerstone TE for 2025

Dwain McFarland breaks down what to expect out of TE Trey McBride in 2025 and why he's not only the cornerstone of the tight end position, but also a cornerstone of his fantasy football draft strategy.

Since taking over the starting job in Week 8 of 2023, Trey McBride has morphed into a superstar tight end for fantasy managers. Over that 26-game span, he averaged 15.4 fantasy points per game with an eye-popping 28% target share.

Since 2011, only eight tight ends have posted an adjusted target share (accounts for injured games) of 23% or higher in a season, and it is a great list.

  • Brock Bowers (2024)
  • Darren Waller (2020)
  • Delanie Walker (2015)
  • George Kittle (2018, 2019)
  • Mark Andrews (2019, 2020, 2021, 2022)
  • Travis Kelce (2013, 2018, 2020, 2024)
  • Trey McBride (2024)
  • Zach Ertz (2018)

Collectively, that group averaged 16 fantasy points per game with an average finish of TE3, and points balloon to 16.8 if you remove Andrews from the sample. Andrews' numbers are skewed by such run-heavy teams that deflated his targets despite the strong target share.

What Is Trey McBride's Fantasy Football Outlook For 2025?

Interestingly, the group above without McBride averaged 0.48 receiving TDs per game, while McBride has averaged 0.20 since taking over as the starter. So, we are talking about a 25-year-old ascending superstar who is due for positive regression in the touchdown department. He could easily triple his two-TD total from last season.

Whether defenses have tried to cover McBride with man or zone coverage, it hasn't mattered. Against man looks, the former Round 2 NFL Draft pick has earned a target on 22% of his routes, and against zone, he has been Kyler Murray's best friend with a 25% targets-per-route-run rate over the last two seasons.

If there are nitpicks with McBride's game, it is his low average depth of target (aDOT) of 6.3 yards and average yards per target (8.1). If we analyze the game-breaking tight ends like Kelce, Jimmy Graham, and Rob Gronkowski, who averaged 19 points per game in their best seasons, they were stronger in these categories.

While their average end-zone target share (30%) matched McBride's from 2024, that group had an aDOT of 9.5 with 9.5 yards per target in their peak seasons. Their ability to stretch the field and create more big plays helped unlock a massive touchdown ceiling—averaging 12.7 per game in their best-season samples.

Now, I only say it helped their cause because they also had another major factor working to their advantage. They also had superior QB play to McBride with Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees tossing them the rock, which brings us to Kyler Murray. Simply stated, the No. 1 pick from the 2019 NFL Draft hasn't lived up to the hype, performing more like an average NFL starter in the key categories that perpetuate fantasy production for pass catchers.

Below is how Murray has fared over the last three years versus the NFL average for a starter:

  • Passing yards per attempt: 6.6 vs. 7.3
  • Passing yards per game: 222 vs. 235
  • Passing TDs per attempt: 3.7% vs. 4.6%
  • Passing TDs per game: 1.3 vs. 1.5

Still, it isn't like Murray has never posted big numbers. The glass-half-empty view says his 271-yard per game season in 2021 looks like an outlier against the backdrop of his entire career. The glass-half-full view says he will only be 28 this year, and at least he has demonstrated a high-end passing ceiling. In that outlier year, he tossed 1.7 TDs per game.

Whether Murray stays in his status quo slumber from the last three seasons or luck-boxes a spike year, the good news for McBride is the lack of target competition. Marvin Harrison Jr. should make strides in Year 2, but behind him, there aren't any priority weapons, making this a two-player passing attack. Last season, Harrison notched a 23% target share and McBride still reached 29%.

The big question is whether you want to spend a Round 3 selection on a tight end in your fantasy draft this summer. Many will recall the colossal early-season flop from the injury-riddled Sam LaPorta from last year and say no thanks. However, I won't be one of those because McBride has exhibited the ability to completely dominate his team's targets, which is a rare commodity.

When you look at the receivers going in McBride's range of early best ball drafts on Underdog, you will see Tyreek Hill, Tee Higgins, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Garrett Wilson, and Terry McLaurin. While all of those are viable options, McBride has the strongest combination of proven high-end production and youth. He is safer than Hill (age) and Wilson (QB challenges), and McLaurin/Higgins are both due for TD regression. Smith-Njigba is the strongest challenger, but even he carries some risk should the team decide to give his slot reps to Cooper Kupp.

Give me McBride, who goes almost one round later than Brock Bowers, but offers the same profile. McBride, now the highest-paid TE ($76M) in the NFL, is a name I want to target often in 2025 as a cornerstone to my draft strategy.

 

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Trey McBride
    TreyMcBride
    TEARIARI
    PPG
    14.09
    Proj
    11.86