Upgrades For Week 10 Quarterback Rankings: Trevor Lawrence Continues To Roll

Let's get into the Week 10 QB edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

Favorable betting factors and situational spots
Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 10 favorites and fades.

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Week 10 Quarterback Rankings

Rank	Player
1	Josh Allen
2	Drake Maye
3	Brock Purdy
4	Joe Burrow
5	Trevor Lawrence
6	Jared Goff
7	Patrick Mahomes
8	Jayden Daniels
9	Dak Prescott
10	Tyler Shough
11	C.J. Stroud
12	Jordan Love
13	Bryce Young
14	Matthew Stafford
15	Geno Smith
16	Kirk Cousins
17	Drew Lock
18	Malik Willis
19	Aaron Rodgers
20	J.J. McCarthy

Week 10 Matchup Upgrades: Trevor Lawrence at Titans & Matthew Stafford at Cardinals

There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever QBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Titans and Cardinals are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for QBs.

Titans: No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA (39.4%)
Cardinals: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+5.4)

Bang a gong.

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) at Titans: Lawrence has been incredibly efficient this season (No. 1 with a 9.4 AY/A), especially since the team's first European game in Week 5 (21.0 fantasy points per game, 1,089 yards passing, 10 TDs, 2 INTs with 10-45-0 rushing). The Jags are week-best -10.5 favorites, and Lawrence has been at his best throughout his career as a favorite of at least a TD (22.4 fantasy points per game vs. 15.9 otherwise), and HC Liam Coen has crushed as a favorite (11-4 ATS, 41.3% ROI, per Action Network). The setup isn't perfect: The Titans are coming off the bye, and this is the second straight road game for the Jags and their fifth away in seven weeks. But the matchup is about as good as it gets: In two games against the Titans last year, Lawrence was perfect (22.5 fantasy points per game, 484 yards passing, 5 TDs, 0 INTs with 5-36-0 rushing).

Matthew Stafford (Rams) at Cardinals: In three games since No. 2 WR Davante Adams (hamstring, IR) went down, Stafford has struggled (13.3 fantasy points per game, 580 yards passing, 5 TDs, 3 INTs), and now No. 1 WR Puka Nacua (knee) is doubtful after exiting last week. But HC Sean McVay has historically done well in division (35-24-1 ATS, 14.4% ROI) and on the road (49-36-2 ATS, 11.8% ROI), and Stafford abused the Cardinals in two games last year (25.0 fantasy points per game, 540 yards passing, 7 TDs, 0 INTs). The Rams are on their third road game in four weeks, but the Cards have had the No. 31 HFA over the past 16 games (-7.91, per NFElo).

Week 10 Scoring Upgrades: Brock Purdy at Cowboys & Jared Goff vs. Patriots

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the QB."

This week, the 49ers are No. 1 in implied team total (30.0 points); the Lions, No. 4 (27.0).

Upgrades warranted.

Brock Purdy (49ers) at Cowboys: Last week I highlighted Purdy as a favorite, and he delivered off the bye (26.3 fantasy points, 232 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT with 7-40-1 rushing). For the season, he has played at an MVP level in terms of both production (22.1 fantasy points per game, 1,980 yards passing, 17 TDs, 5 INTs with 39-201-2 rushing) and efficiency (69.1% completion rate, 8.9 AY/A). The setup isn't great: The Cowboys have a boosted HFA because they're outside division, on turf (vs. grass), and indoors (vs. outdoors), and the 49ers could be without WRs Mike Evans (Achilles) and Deebo Samuel (hamstring). But this game has the slate's highest total (55.5), and in games with an over/under of at least 49, Purdy has been his best self (22.9 fantasy points per game vs. 18.0 otherwise). Plus, the Cowboys are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA (25.3%), and they could be without LB DeMarvion Overshown (hamstring) and CB Joey Porter (ankle) on top of SS P.J. Locke (concussion). The sample is small, but for his career, Purdy has done well against the Cowboys (68.4% completion rate, 10.5 AY/A; 3-0 ATS, 92.6% ROI).

Jared Goff (Lions) vs. Patriots (in Munich): Goff has been a mess since the Week 6 bye (11.4 fantasy points per game, 649 yards passing, 3 TDs, 2 INTs with 9-4-0 rushing), but his efficiency in that timeframe has remained largely intact (69.5% completion rate, 7.5 AY/A), so I expect a bounceback. It's not ideal that this game is outdoors, where Goff has had notable splits with the Lions (14.9 fantasy points per game vs. 18.0 indoors). And he might be without C Cade Mays (ankle). But the Lions are favored, and throughout his career Goff has been far better as a favorite (17.9 fantasy points per game vs. 14.1 otherwise). Plus, the Patriots could be without CBs Carlton Davis (knee) and Charles Woods (hamstring).

Week 10 Indoors Upgrades: Dak Prescott vs. 49ers & Bryce Young at Saints

In general, I want to be heavy on QBs playing indoors, where they don't need to worry about wind, temperature and precipitation. Here are two such QBs who stand out.

Dak Prescott (Cowboys) vs. 49ers: Prescott was up and down in Weeks 1-6 (18.3 fantasy points per game, 6.6 AY/A), but he has been sharp over the past three games (20.9 fantasy points per game, 742 yards passing, 6 TDs, 0 INTs with 11-29-1 rushing; 9.6 AY/A). Indoors at home is where he has been his best throughout his career (21.1 fantasy points per game vs. 16.8 elsewhere), and the Cowboys have a boosted HFA because they're outside division, on turf (vs. grass) and indoors (vs. outdoors). Plus, Prescott is the league's most profitable home QB for over bettors (50-27 O/U, 25.9% ROI). He might be without WRs George Pickens (hamstring), Jonathan Mingo (ankle) and KaVontae Turpin (ribs), but the 49ers could similarly miss CBs Renardo Green (back) and Deommodore Lenoir (foot) on top of CB Nate Hobbs (groin, IR).

Bryce Young (Panthers) at Saints: Since the Week 5 bye, Young's production has dipped (15.0 fantasy points per game, 929 yards passing, 7 TDs, 4 INTs with 5-28-0 rushing). His efficiency especially has tanked (58.2% completion rate, 6.1 AY/A). Also, the Saints are on their second straight home game, and this is their sixth week of the past eight not on the road. But they have a diminished HFA against the Panthers because they play in division on a similar turf surface, and Young has been a producer indoors throughout his career (19.1 fantasy points per game vs. 12.6 outdoors). Plus, the Saints are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA (23.2%).

Week 10 Defensive Injury Upgrades: Drake Maye vs. Lions & Tyler Shough vs. Panthers

Here are a couple QBs who get upgrades because of defensive injuries.

Drake Maye (Patriots) vs. Lions (in Munich): Maye looked rough in Weeks 1-3 (9.2 fantasy points per game, 585 yards passing, 1 TD, 6 INTs with 15-82-0 rushing), but he has been a top-tier performer since Week 4 (27.1 fantasy points per game, 1,697 yards passing, 17 TDs, 5 INTs with 32-137-3 rushing), and for the season he's the No. 1 QB in goal-line rush share (50%, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). The setup isn't great: The Pats are +2.5 dogs for an early 9:30 am ET kickoff in Munich, and Maye might not have No. 1 WR A.J. Brown (knee), RB Rhamondre Stevenson (knee), LT Will Campbell (knee), and RG Ben Brown (knee). But the Lions are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (22.5), and they might not have CB D.J. Reed (hip) and EDGE DJ Wonnum (concussion) on top of LB Jack Campbell (neck, IR).

Tyler Shough (Saints) vs. Panthers: Shough has been steady this season (18.9 fantasy points per game, 1,986 yards passing, 14 TDs, 6 INTs with 34-162-2 rushing), and he has an elevated floor thanks to his inside-the-five functionality (No. 3 with a 41% goal-line rush share). The Saints have a diminished HFA against the Panthers because they play in division on a similar turf surface, and Shough has been oddly bad at home in his young career (13.3 fantasy points per game vs. 19.7 elsewhere). But this is still the second straight home game for the Saints and their sixth week of the past eight not on the road. The Saints might be without C Erik McCoy (biceps), but the Panthers could miss EDGE Jaelan Phillips (hamstring) and CB Will Lee (hamstring) on top of CBs Jaycee Horn (quadriceps, IR), Mike Jackson (groin, IR) and Akayleb Evans (triceps, IR). In two games against the Panthers last year, Shough played well (18.6 fantasy points per game, 554 yards passing, 3 TDs, 0 INTs with 12-29-0 rushing). I'd consider starting Shough in Guillotine Leagues^TM this week.

Notes

Week 10 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Introduction
QB Favorites
QB Fades
RB Favorites
RB Fades
WR Favorites
WR Fades
TE Favorites
TE Fades

Byes: This week, the Bears, Broncos, Eagles and Buccaneers are off.

Market Odds: As of Tuesday afternoon.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.