Week 1 TE Rankings Downgrades For Fantasy Football: Travis Kelce & More Of Freedman's Fades

Let's get into the Week 1 TE rankings edition of Freedman's Fades, where I highlight guys I'm downgrading because of …

Unfavorable betting factors and situational spots
Disadvantageous defensive matchups (perhaps amplified by offensive injury)
Decreased usage expectations (again, maybe exacerbated by offensive injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 1 favorites and fades.

Week 1 Tight End Rankings (Top 15)

Rank	Player
1	Brock Bowers
2	Trey McBride
3	Colston Loveland
4	Tucker Kraft
5	Tyler Warren
6	Kyle Pitts
7	Harold Fannin
8	Dalton Kincaid
9	George Kittle
10	Sam LaPorta
11	Travis Kelce
12	Dallas Goedert
13	Isaiah Likely
14	Mark Andrews
15	Jake Ferguson

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Week 1 TE Rankings Matchup Downgrades: Chig Okonkwo at Eagles & Dalton Kincaid at Texans

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve automatic downgrades to whatever TEs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Eagles and Texans last year were two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for TEs.

Eagles: No. 1 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (-51.9%)
Texans: No. 2 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (-31.7%)

Chig Okonkwo (Commanders) at Eagles: Okonkwo entered the NFL in 2021 with an intriguing "squatty Mike Evans" physical profile (6-3, 238 lbs., 4.52-second 40-yard dash), and in his four years with the Titans he had acceptable-ish production (2,017 yards receiving, 7.4 yards per target). But with the Commanders, Okonkwo still seems unlikely to break above the "No. 3 pass catcher on the team at best" situation that held him down in Tennessee, and even if I'm wrong, Week 1 against the Eagles probably isn't the time to try to disprove my theory.

Dalton Kincaid (Bills) at Texans: One of my 2026 fantasy favorites, Kincaid has a few factors working against him. First, the dude has never played a full season. Even when he's healthy, he's always potentially just one play away from being injured. Second, last year he had only 49 targets and was the No. 22 TE in Utilization Score (63, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). In no game did he have a snap rate of even 60%. He simply doesn't play much. Third, the team added WR DJ Moore this offseason, so Kincaid might have even more competition for targets. There are reasons to like Kincaid: Last year he was super efficient with a 24% target rate, 11.7 yards per target, and a 10.2% TD rate. And the Bills are indoors, where QB Josh Allen tends to have success (10-5-1 ATS, 26.0% ROI, per Action Network). But with the brutal matchup, Kincaid's downside seems to outweigh his upside for Week 1. I can imagine Kincaid having a high chop rate this week in Guillotine Leagues™.

Scoring Downgrades In The Week 1 TE Rankings: George Kittle vs. Rams & Tucker Kraft at Vikings

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score many points, so I need to push down the TEs."

For their baselines, I have the 49ers projected this year with the No. 2 offense; the Packers, No. 4. But this week the 49ers and Packers are tied at No. 18 in implied team total (22 points).

Downgrades warranted.

George Kittle (49ers) vs. Rams (in Australia): Let's start with the obvious fact that Kittle (Achilles) is coming back from a serious season-ending injury and isn't a lock to play Week 1. And if he does play, the team might look to ease him back into action, especially since No. 2 TE Jake Tonges is a livable fill-in. On top of that, the Rams last year were No. 3 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (-22.9%), and then this offseason they added two future Hall of Famers in EDGE Myles Garrett and DT Aaron Donald, so their all-around defense will likely be better. Finally, the 49ers are dogs to the Rams, and QB Brock Purdy hasn't measured up against the Rams (0-3 ATS, -100% ROI) or as an underdog (1-5 ATS, -68.2% ROI).

Tucker Kraft (Packers) at Vikings: Like Kittle, Kraft (knee) is returning from a season-ending injury. Also like Kittle, Kraft is awesome when healthy. Last year, Kraft was the No. 1 TE in fantasy in Weeks 1-8 (14.0 points per game, 30-469-6 receiving, 41 targets, seven games). But most of those games were without veteran WRs Christian Watson and Jayden Reed, both of whom could negatively impact Kraft's target share in Week 1. Plus, the Vikings last year were No. 5 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (-2.0), and QB Jordan Love has underwhelmed on the road (11-16-1 ATS, -21.4% ROI).

TE Rankings For Week 1 - Injury Downgrade: Tyler Warren vs. Ravens

Here's a TE who gets a downgrade because of injuries.

Tyler Warren (Colts) vs. Ravens: Warren (groin) is injured, and QB Daniel Jones (Achilles) is returning from a season-ending injury. That doesn't sound great for Week 1. Also not great for Warren: This offseason, the team added veteran WR Keenan Allen, who could compete with him for targets in the middle of the field. HC Shane Steichen has done well in the first month of the season (8-4 ATS, 28.2% ROI), and the Colts have an amplified home-field advantage against the Ravens, who are outside of division, on turf (instead of grass), and indoors (instead of outdoors) … but the Ravens also have first-team All-Pro SS Kyle Hamilton, so … still not great.

Week 1 Situational Downgrades In The TE Rankings: Trey McBride at Chargers, Kyle Pitts at Steelers & Travis Kelce vs. Broncos

In general, I want to avoid TEs playing in poor weather conditions, in stadiums with diminished advantages, or in notable subpar situational spots.

Here are three such TEs who stand out.

Trey McBride (Cardinals) at Chargers: McBride is one of my 2026 fantasy fades entering the season, so why shouldn't that be the case in Week 1 with his matchup against the Chargers, who have five-time Pro Bowl SS Derwin James and last year were No. 3 in fewest fantasy points allowed to TEs (7.5)? I'm not saying that McBride isn't awesome: Over the past two years, he's No. 2 in the league in targets (316) and receptions (237) and No. 6 in receiving yards (2,385), and last season he leveled up his game with 11 TDs. But the matchup is tough, and we don't know how he'll fit in HC Mike LaFleur's offense. Finally, as non-divisional and non-conference opponents playing on turf (instead of grass), the Cardinals are at a significant disadvantage on the road.

Kyle Pitts (Falcons) at Steelers: Pitts hasn't lived up to the promise of his draft capital (No. 4) or 2021 rookie season (1,026 yards), but last year he had the best all-around campaign of his career with 88-928-5 receiving on 118 targets and finished as the No. 3 TE in WOPR (49%). Every year, I tend to like Pitts more than I should. But this week I'm out. We don't even know who the starting QB is. Regardless, we know this: HC Kevin Stefanski is terrible on the road (19-32 ATS, -28.1% ROI), and the Falcons are granting maximal home-field advantage to the Steelers as non-divisional and non-conference opponents playing on grass (instead of turf) and outdoors (instead of indoors). While the Falcons are +3 road dogs at most sportsbooks, I have this projected at an actionable +4.5.

You can see aDOT, air yards, and WOPR in our Fantasy Life Air Yards Tool. "WOPR" stands for "weighted opportunity rating," and it measures the overall quality of a player's aerial role in his offense by considering his share of targets and air yards.

Travis Kelce (Chiefs) vs. Broncos: While life looks great for Kelce off the field, on the gridiron last year he had his lowest target total in a decade (108), and over the past two seasons he has averaged a modest 837 yards and four TDs receiving. Gone is the first-team All-Pro. It's theoretically a boon for Kelce that the Chiefs are at home, but over the past half-decade, they've been No. 3 in worst home-field advantage (-0.90, per NFElo), which is diminished all the more against the Broncos, a divisional opponent who play on a similar grass surface in a similar outdoor stadium. On top of that, QB Patrick Mahomes is on the wrong side of his splits as a divisional favorite (17-23-2 ATS, -15.6% ROI), and we tend not to see many points in general at Arrowhead Stadium: No QB has been more profitable to the under at home than Mahomes (49-29-1, 20.3% ROI).

Notes

You can view all of my Week 1 favorites and fades below

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.