Week 1 WR Rankings Downgrades For Fantasy Football: Luther Burden, DJ Moore & More

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Matchup Downgrades In The Week 1 WR Ranks: Rashee Rice vs. Broncos & DJ Moore at Texans

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve automatic downgrades to whatever WRs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Broncos and Texans last year were two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for WRs.

• Broncos: No. 1 in defensive dropback SR (38.9%)
• Texans: No. 1 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.126)

Rashee Rice (Chiefs) vs. Broncos: In his half-season of action last year, Rice more or less looked like himself (53-571-5 receiving, 78 targets in eight games), but in his one game against the Broncos, Rice had just 6.8 fantasy points (6-38-0 receiving, 9 targets, an embarrassing 4.2 yards per target). In the slot, Rice will be hounded by feisty CB Ja'Quan McMillian (5.9 yards per target, 75.0 coverage grade last year, per PFF). And when he kicks outside, he'll face 2024 DPOY CB Patrick Surtain (5.0 yards per target last year). It's theoretically a boon for Rice that the Chiefs are at home, but over the past half-decade, they've been No. 3 in worst home-field advantage (-0.90, per NFElo), which is diminished all the more against the Broncos, a divisional opponent who play on a similar grass surface in a similar outdoor stadium. On top of that, QB Patrick Mahomes is on the wrong side of his splits as a divisional favorite (17-23-2 ATS, -15.6% ROI), and we tend not to see many points in general at Arrowhead Stadium: No QB has been more profitable to the under at home than Mahomes (49-29-1, 20.3% ROI). I can imagine Rice having a high chop rate this week in Guillotine Leagues™. 

DJ Moore (Bills) at Texans: Moore now has QB Josh Allen throwing to him, and Allen has been especially strong indoors (10-5-1 ATS, 26.0% ROI, per Action Network), but the matchup is brutal, and last year Moore, despite having a respectable snap rate (85%), was mediocre at best (career-worst 682 yards receiving, Utilization Score of 58, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). Moore could be in line for a bounceback campaign. In his six prior seasons, he averaged 135 targets per year and trailed only Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown and Stefon Diggs in total yards receiving (6,743) at the WR position. Moore's efficiency last year (8.0 yards per target) was comparable to that of his previous four seasons (7.9), and he was still the rusher he's always been (15-79-1 in 2025, 72-510-2 for career). He could have a decent season … but it won't start in Week 1.

WR Rankings - Week 1 Scoring Downgrades: A.J. Brown at Seahawks & Jayden Reed at Vikings

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score many points, so I need to push down the WRs".

For their baselines, I have the Packers projected this year with the No. 4 offense; the Patriots, No. 7. But this week the Packers are No. 18 in implied team total (22 points), and the Pats are No. 25 (20.5).

Downgrades warranted.

A.J. Brown (Patriots) at Seahawks: Brown has enjoyed a borderline Hall of Fame career to this point, but in 2025 he had the least efficient season of his Eagles tenure (8.3 yards per target), he's now 29 years old, and for Week 1 he must travel across the country for a terrible matchup with the Seahawks, who last year were No. 1 in defensive pass DVOA (-20.2%). Not great.

Jayden Reed (Packers) at Vikings: I think Reed is one of the league's most underappreciated WRs. In his first two seasons, he proved himself to be a big-play producer (1,932 yards, 17 TDs). Last season was terrible (235 yards, one TD), but he missed 10 games with injuries, which impacted his entire campaign, and even so, Reed was his typical efficient self (9.4 yards per target, 9.3 yards per carry). He has a real opportunity this year to break out: Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks are gone, Matthew Golden looked lost last year and Christian Watson has never had 700 yards in a season. But Reed still isn't a lock to play in two-WR sets, slot CB Byron Murphy made the Pro Bowl in 2024 and played maybe even better in 2025 (5.9 yards per target), and the Vikings last year were No. 1 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (-5.2). And it doesn't help that QB Jordan Love has underwhelmed on the road (11-16-1 ATS, -21.4% ROI).

Week 1 WR Rankings Situational Downgrades: Ja'Marr Chase vs. Buccaneers, Drake London at Steelers, Luther Burden at Panthers & Michael Wilson at Chargers

In general, I want to avoid WRs playing in poor weather conditions, in stadiums with diminished advantages, or in notable subpar situational spots.

Here are four such WRs who stand out.

Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) vs. Buccaneers: Well, this is awkward. I've spent most of the summer telling you to draft Chase No. 1 overall. He's one of my main 2026 fantasy favorites. Over the past two seasons he is No. 1 in targets (360), receptions (252), receiving yards (3,120) and receiving TDs (25), and that was without QB Joe Burrow for nine games last year. But it's Week 1, when Burrow and the Bengals have historically underperformed (1-5 ATS, -67.9% ROI), and the Bucs last year were No. 3 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (-29.7%).

Drake London (Falcons) at Steelers: On his own merits, London is a top-10 WR in reality. Last year, he was the No. 6 WR in Utilization Score (83). But this week I don't like him for fantasy: We don't even know who the starting QB is. Regardless, we know this: HC Kevin Stefanski is terrible on the road (19-32 ATS, -28.1% ROI), and the Falcons are granting maximal home-field advantage to the Steelers as non-divisional and non-conference opponents playing on grass (instead of turf) and outdoors (instead of indoors). While the Falcons are +3 road dogs at most sportsbooks, I have this projected at an actionable +4.5.

Luther Burden (Bears) at Panthers: About a month ago I said that Burden is a breakout candidate who won't actually break out. I fully acknowledge his upside. As a rookie last year, Burden was the No. 8 WR in efficiency (10.9 yards per target), and his usage (45 targets) and production (481 yards receiving) picked up in the final eight games after he returned from injury in Week 10. The No. 1 WR in the 2022 recruiting class, Burden exploded as a college sophomore with 86-1,212-9 receiving, and he could enjoy a similar second-season NFL breakout in 2026. But for Week 1 he's facing the Panthers, who last year were No. 1 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 WRs (-53.4%) and have two strong perimeter defenders in CBs Jaycee Horn (back-to-back Pro Bowls) and Michael Jackson (league-high 19 passes defended in 2025). On top of that, the Bears have a large visiting disadvantage as non-divisional opponents playing on turf (instead of grass). 

Michael Wilson (Cardinals) at Chargers: I have Wilson ahead of Marvin Harrison as the team's No. 1 WR, and for the season I like Wilson to go over 724.5 receiving yards. Just last year, he broke out with 78-1,006-7 receiving. But it was the splitsiest season ever. In five games without Harrison, he was Jerry Rice (46-598-4 receiving, 68 targets). But in their 12 weeks together, Wilson was Jerry from Parks and Recreation (32-408-3, 59). With Harrison active, I expect Wilson's dominance to diminish, especially with a new play caller. Finally, as non-divisional and non-conference opponents playing on turf (instead of grass), the Cardinals are at a significant disadvantage on the road against the Chargers, who, last year, were No. 5 in defensive dropback SR (43.0%).

Notes

You can find all of my Week 1 favorites and fades below:

• Introduction
• QB Favorites
• QB Fades
• RB Favorites
• RB Fades
• WR Favorites
• WR Fades
• TE Favorites
• TE Fades

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.

• Tue AM: Publish
• Thu AM: Refresh
• Thu PM: Make necessary TNF changes
• Sat PM: Update
• Sun AM: Revise
• Sun PM: Finalize based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a seven-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop bettor. 

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.

• Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Team Total (TT)
• Moneyline (ML)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
• Short Down and Distance (SDD)
• Long Down and Distance (LDD)

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