Upgrades For Week 1 Running Back Rankings: Jahmyr Gibbs Leads Off Freedman's RB Favorites

Let's get into the Week 1 RB edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

Favorable betting factors and situational spots
Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 1 favorites and fades.

Week 1 Running Back Rankings (Top 24)

Rank	Player
1	Jahmyr Gibbs
2	Bijan Robinson
3	Christian McCaffrey
4	James Cook
5	Jonathan Taylor
6	Kenneth Walker
7	Saquon Barkley
8	De'Von Achane
9	Derrick Henry
10	Chase Brown
11	Ashton Jeanty
12	Omarion Hampton
13	Jeremiyah Love
14	Breece Hall
15	Javonte Williams
16	Travis Etienne
17	Kyren Williams
18	Cam Skattebo
19	D'Andre Swift
20	Jadarian Price
21	Quinshon Judkins
22	Bhayshul Tuten
23	David Montgomery
24	Jaylen Warren

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Week 1 Matchup Upgrades: Javonte Williams at Giants & Kenneth Gainwell at Bengals

There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever RBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Giants and Bengals last year were two of the biggest flow chart defenses for RBs.

Giants: No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.109) and defensive rush DVOA (10.9%)
Bengals: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+4.6)

Javonte Williams (Cowboys) at Giants: Williams enjoyed a surprise breakout last year in his first season with the Cowboys (1,338 yards, 13 TDs), and his stranglehold on the No. 1 RB job has only strengthened this offseason thanks to a three-year, $24 million contract and the recent cuts of RBs Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah. One his games against the Giants last season, Williams went off with 22 fantasy points (130 yards, one TD on 18 carries, 7 targets). Plus, the Cowboys with QB Dak Prescott tend to dominate in division (32-15 ATS, 32.1% ROI, per Action Network).

Kenneth Gainwell (Bucs) at Bengals: The Bucs could find themselves with a pass-leaning game script as +3.5 dogs, and if that happens then Gainwell might see more action than ostensible starter Bucky Irving. One of my 2026 must-draft fantasy players, Gainwell broke out in 2025 with the Steelers as a strong No. 2 RB (1,023 yards, 8 TDs on 114 carries, 85 targets). Now with the Bucs (via a two-year, $14M contract with $9.83M guaranteed), Gainwell could enjoy similar success in 2026. Despite having a subpar career record (59-72-5 ATS), HC Todd Bowles in Weeks 1-2 has had his teams ready to compete (12-4 ATS, 45.3% ROI).

Week 1 Scoring Upgrades: Keaton Mitchell vs. Cardinals & Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Saints

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the RBs."

This week the Chargers are No. 1 in implied team total (28.5 points), and the Lions are No. 2 (28.25).

Upgrades warranted.

Keaton Mitchell (Chargers) vs. Cardinals: The Chargers are -10.5 home favorites, so at some point Mitchell as the No. 2 RB could get sustained action against the Cardinals, who were No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (23.6). An explosive playmaker (6.3 yards per carry, 7.7 yards per target for career), Mitchell probably isn't OC Mike McDaniel's new De'Von Achane … but what if he is? All signs point to the Chargers dominating: They're facing a non-divisional opponent playing on turf (instead of grass), and QB Justin Herbert tends to outperform in Week 1 (4-1 ATS, 55.4% ROI), as does HC Jim Harbaugh (6-0 ATS, 100% ROI). With 18 teams going this week, Mitchell might be a legitimate option in Guillotine Leagues^TM.

Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs. Saints: You don't need me to mention Gibbs, who has been awesome over the past two seasons (3,768 total yards, 38 TDs). But I'm highlighting him because I want to emphasize the extent to which he could dominate this week relative to other studs, such as Bijan Robinson and Christian McCaffrey, both of whom are road dogs with low implied team totals in tough matchups. Add on top of that the fact that former No. 2 RB David Montgomery is gone, new No. 2 RB Isiah Pacheco (knee/back, IR) is out, this game has a 50-point over/under, and QB Jared Goff throughout his career he has been especially sharp indoors (48-27-1 ATS, 22.4% ROI) and in Week 1 (8-1 ATS, 72% ROI), and it's apparent: Gibbs has gotta be the No. 1 RB this week in the ranks, and it's not even close.

Week 1 Defensive Injury Upgrades: Kyren Williams vs. 49ers & Jordan Mason vs. Packers

Here are a couple RBs who get upgrades because of defensive injuries.

Kyren Williams (Rams) vs. 49ers (in Australia): It has become en vogue since last season to disparage Williams, and maybe for good reason. After all, we've seen his per-game production drop each year from its 2023 peak (112.5 yards, 92.6, 90.2; and 1.25 TDs, 1.0, 0.76). Without question, the presence of No. 2 RB Blake Corum caps his ceiling. That said, the dude is still the only player in the league with 1,300+ yards and 13+ TDs in each of the past three seasons, and he's still in a prolific offense schemed by HC Sean McVay and led by MVP QB Matthew Stafford. Williams should get his fantasy points against the 49ers, who last year were No. 31 in defensive rush SR (47.1%) and are still without EDGE Mykel Williams (knee, PUP). Plus, it doesn't hurt that the Rams have done well as a team against 49ers QB Brock Purdy (3-0 ATS, 87.8% ROI).

Jordan Mason (Vikings) vs. Packers: Last year, Mason averaged a nice 69.0 yards and 0.8 TDs in his five games as a home favorite vs. 42.4 yards and 0.18 TDs in his 11 other games. This week, he has the good fortune to be a home favorite against a Packers team without first-team All-Pro EDGE Micah Parsons (knee, PUP). The Vikings last season were No. 2 in home-field advantage (+12.5, per NFElo), and QB Kyler Murray has historically done well in Week 1 (5-1 ATS, 65.4% ROI). For what it's worth, I like the Vikings to win the Super Bowl at +5000.

Week 1 Offensive Injury Upgrades: D'Andre Swift at Panthers & Jadarian Price vs. Patriots

Here are a couple RBs who get upgrades because of offensive injuries.

D'Andre Swift (Bears) at Panthers: One of my 2026 fantasy favorites, Swift is coming off a career-best 1,386-yard, 10-TD campaign and is still just 27 years old. While he's not a full-blown workhorse, he's one of only nine RBs with 1,200+ scrimmage yards in each of the past three seasons, and he figures to function as a true lead back this week with No. 2 RB Kyle Monangai (knee) highly questionable to play. Plus, QB Caleb Williams has played his best outside division (15-7-1 ATS, 29.8% ROI).

Jadarian Price (Seahawks) vs. Pats: I think the Seahawks massively overdrafted Price in Round 1, but the rookie's in a great situation to produce right away given that former starter Kenneth Walker is gone and No. 2 RB Zach Charbonnet (knee, PUP) is still recovering. Price is not big (203 pounds), fast (4.49-second 40-yard dash), sudden (1.61-second 10-yard split) nor young (23 years old in October), and he wasn't prolific in college (1,517 yards, 20 TDs as Jeremiyah Love's backup in final two seasons), but he's still slated to be the No. 1 RB for the reigning Super Bowl champs in Week 1. That's good enough. For the season, I like Price to go over 724.5 rushing yards.

Week 1 Home Favorite Upgrades: Saquon Barkley vs. Commanders & Rico Dowdle vs. Falcons

In general, I want to be heavy on RBs favored at home, where they're likely to enjoy a more run-heavy game script.

Here are two such RBs who stand out.

Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs. Commanders: People act as if Barkley was terrible last year. Please. His production didn't exactly mirror his usage (No. 3 RB in snap rate at 80%, No. 8 RB in Utilization Score at 83, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). But if you're gonna turn your nose up at a guy who had 1,413 yards and 9 TDs last year—with 3,696 and 24 over the past two and 6,588 and 44 over the past four—then best of luck to you. Barkley went off (132 yards, 1 TD on 21 carries, 2 targets) in his one game last year against the Commanders, who were No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (24.1). I expect the Eagles to fly: With QB Jalen Hurts, they outperform as home favorites (22-14-1 ATS, 16.3% ROI).

Rico Dowdle (Steelers) vs. Falcons: Dowdle is one of just 11 RBs with 1,300+ scrimmage yards in each of the past two seasons, and he's also the only one of the cohort to accomplish this feat on two different teams. Here he is now on a new team once again, but this time he's reunited with former Cowboys HC and current Steelers HC Mike McCarthy, who might just prefer his former workhorse to incumbent starter Jaylen Warren. For his career, McCarthy has done well as a home favorite (70-49-4 ATS, 14.3% ROI) as well as in Week 1 (11-7 ATS, 19.7% ROI), and the Steelers have a maximized home-field advantage in this spot against the Falcons, a non-divisional and non-conference opponent playing on grass (instead of turf) and outdoors (instead of indoors).

Notes

Find all of my Week 1 favorites and fades below:

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.

Tue AM: Publish
Thu AM: Refresh
Thu PM: Make necessary TNF changes
Sat PM: Update
Sun AM: Revise
Sun PM: Finalize based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a seven-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop bettor.

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.

Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
Against the Spread (ATS)
Over/Under (O/U)
Team Total (TT)
Moneyline (ML)
Return on Investment (ROI)
Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
Expected Points Added (EPA)
Success Rate (SR)
Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
Short Down and Distance (SDD)
Long Down and Distance (LDD)

Players Mentioned in this Article

RicoDowdle
RBPIT
PPG
10.9
Proj
10.8
SaquonBarkley
RBPHI
PPG
13.3
Proj
14.3
JahmyrGibbs
RBDET
PPG
19.2
Proj
20.1
JadarianPrice
RBSEA
Proj
11.2

Published Sep 9, 2026, 4:00 AM ET