Week 5 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: A Last-Minute RB Add, an Important Weather Nugget and More
Are you ready for Week 5? Not so fast, buddy! Chris Allen is here to help you sort out everything you need to know before closing your laptop before kickoff.
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Things seemed so much simpler back in August.
It’s not like we didn’t know these days were coming. Every fantasy manager tried to mitigate the ins and outs of the NFL season ahead of time. We drafted players with varying bye weeks or at least kept them in mind while building our teams. The international schedule, while not a roster-building consideration, has been out since May. All the info was there, but it referred to some time in the future.
Well, that time is now. And, naturally, there are extra factors we have to monitor.
Jaylen Warren’s last-minute absence in Week 4 emphasized the need for closely following the news. With players traveling overseas, we have at least one new quarterback starting, injury situations, and, of course, the weather to guide our start/sit decisions. However, despite the potential overload of inputs, our content and tools have everything you need to be ready for Week 5.
The Latest and Greatest
On the one hand, Friday’s news dump didn’t come with too many surprises. However, on the other hand, some fantasy managers are bracing for an extended absence from one of their star performers.
Beat reporters saw Bucky Irving on crutches and in a protective boot on Wednesday, and he is gathering opinions about his injury. Since Rachaad White had already handled 24.0% of the attempts (along with earning a 6.0% target rate), our rankers had White considerably ahead of third-year RB Sean Tucker for Week 5.
But that’s not to say Tucker won’t have any value. When he earned more than 10.0% of the snaps in ’24, Tucker averaged 52.9 scrimmage yards per game on 7.0 touches a week as both a runner and receiver. His past productivity is part of why the projections have him mixing in behind White in both facets of the game.
However, with Tucker being the more explosive of the two (14.0% explosive play rate in ’24 to White’s 6.9%), valuing Tucker as an emergency FLEX option is worth considering for Sunday.
Danny Cross had similar thoughts when compiling notes on how to approach the bye weeks.
“Rachaad White (50%) and Sean Tucker (5%) appear set to handle the Buccaneers' backfield in Week 5, with Bucky Irving dealing with a foot injury. White was already handling 26% of the team's rushing attempts and significant work in the passing game. But Tucker has shown plenty of juice when given volume — last year he racked up a 14-136-1 rushing line and 3-56-1 receiving in a blowout win against the Saints.”
Week 5 Injury Updates
Unfortunately, Irving’s injury isn’t the only one we need to track. Fortunately, Ronis and Jorge have been updating the injury log as news comes out. And, for last-minute discussion, be sure to catch me and Ian live on Sunday morning as we go over how we’re handling the latest information ahead of kickoff.
- RBs
- Chuba Hubbard (calf)
- WRs
- Deebo Samuel (heel)
- Michael Pittman Jr. (hamstring)
- Calvin Ridley (knee/elbow)
- TEs
- Brock Bowers (knee)
- Juwan Johnson (ankle)
The Important Fantasy Football Links
- Expert rankings (weekly and ROS)
- Our projections
- Free FantasyLife+ for a year (which means 2026 Draft season is also included)
- Week 5's not-obvious "must starts"
- Our weekly Start/Sit column | The Xfinity Start/Sit tool
- Taylor Swift-themed player props
- Reminder there is a 9:30am ET game this Sunday (in London)
The Weather Report
Honestly, since we’ve entered October, I expected to see worse conditions. In any case, I’ll take just having to deal with injuries and bye weeks when it comes to who I put in my starting slots. But, to keep it thorough, I did see two games I’ll be tracking over the course of the weekend and Monday night.
- Game: Buccaneers @ Seahawks
- Conditions: Wind, 11 mph (max), in line with the stadium
- Game: Chiefs @ Jaguars
- Conditions: Rain, 50.0% chance, 0.03 inches per hour (max)
BLUF: I’m mildly concerned about the Jaguars game with the potential for field degradation. I’m not adjusting my lineups, but I would lower expectations for the Jacksonville offense.
So, in the past (i.e., last week), I mentioned two factors to consider with wind: speed and direction. I’m going to add a third: stadium design. However, let’s address the first two elements.
A rate of 11 mph falls short of the threshold for concern when it comes to wind. Wake me up when it gets closer to 20. Plus, the picture on the left gives you an approximation of the wind’s flow path. It roughly aligns with the stadium’s orientation, lessening the chance for a cross breeze. In other words, conditions that might affect deep-passing accuracy or field goals (since their arc is generally higher) are minimal. Now, for the third part.
Notice the breeze will cut across the stadium from left to right. But let’s take it all the way to the extreme. Imagine gusts coming from the west across the stadium. Now, look at the interior stadium photo on the right. Based on the concepts of fluid dynamics, the structure itself acts as a barrier, diminishing what the players will experience on the field. Again, we don’t have to worry about this in Sunday’s game, but I’m introducing this idea now as it’ll become important later on in the season. OK, let’s check out the Monday night game.
Like wind, the fact that it’ll be raining isn’t the question. How much and for how long should be how we think about it. Admittedly, 0.02 inches per hour won’t affect the game. Typically, you won’t even see it on the main broadcast. However, what happens before the game may have an impact.
EverBank Stadium has a grass field. Think about your lawn after two days of constant rain. Slick at best, hard to walk on at worst. Luckily, pipes run underneath the field to support draining, but have caused sinkholes in the past. Also, the grounds crew can have a tarp out on the field up to 90 minutes before kickoff. However, if both QBs have to play in adverse conditions, there’s only one I’d trust to keep the offense moving.
- Patrick Mahomes: -1.8% (CPOE), 2.8% (turnover worthy play rate)
- Trevor Lawrence: -6.8%, 4.3%
I can explain away a dip in Mahomes’ accuracy. He’s been without his top-two WRs for three of four games. I can’t say the same for Lawrence. Meanwhile, fantasy managers have been wondering if Brian Thomas Jr. will return to the top 12 and if HC Liam Coen will develop Travis Hunter into the WR they expected. Hopefully, the conditions lighten up, but I’ll keep an eye on the radar ahead of MNF.
Exploiting the Ranks
Each week, I go through the ranks and see if there are any spots where fantasy managers can beat the system. In essence, if your leaguemates are following how we value these players, let’s find some uncertainty... and profit. And for Week 5, there’s one.
Jaxson Dart only threw 20 passes in his debut. Malik Nabers got hurt during the game. How HC Brian Daboll redesigns that offense around his new QB and star-less pass-catching corps is anyone’s guess. But Dwain had a good idea on how to approach the second start of the Dart regime.
“With Malik Nabers (ACL) out for the season, there is a massive void in the Giants' offense. While this offense doesn't have another Nabers, Robinson ranks second on the team in 2025 with a 24% target share after recording a 25% share in 2024. Robinson has a 10.4-yard average depth of target (aDOT) so far this year—up from 5.1 last season. Robinson is a mid-range WR3 against the Saints this weekend.”
I will say that the Saints’ defense is allowing the third-most yards per play on pass attempts to WRs, which would benefit Darius Slayton. However, with the increased target rate for Robinson, valuing him above other options while the rest of your league is trying to figure out what to do with the Giants’ passing game should pay off against New Orleans.
Planning Ahead: A last-minute desperate RB add
I’m adding this section so you can get the jump on Week 6. We’ll only have two teams on bye (Texans and Vikings), but beating your league to the waiver wire should be our priority. And Geoff has you covered. Even better, if you’re looking for a last-minute (desperate) RB start. There’s one in the game I just referenced.
“[Kendre] Miller was already seeing his touch count rise before his 11-carry, 65-yard, and a TD game vs the Bills in Week 4. The third-year RB had taken 5 carries each of the first two weeks, before being given seven carries and two receptions for a season high nine touches vs the Seahawks in Week 3.
What’s so promising about Miller is that the change in usage in New Orleans was completely organic. By all accounts, Alvin Kamara is fully healthy and still capable of taking 20+ touches, but the coaching staff had clearly liked what they had seen from Miller the last couple of games, enough to give him early touches vs Buffalo and 11 carries in a game they trailed all of the second-half.”
By combining in-game usage with a look ahead, our crew will get your roster churned before the rest of your league. But if you miss out on the last-minute pickups before lock, be sure to check out Kendall’s waiver adds on Monday.
